Tomer’s Take: Hot and drier across Colorado through 8/13 with normal afternoon thunderstorm chances. Moisture starts to increase afternoon 8/14. This equates to a large window for FKT’s, high altitude loops, and big outings. Bulk of next Monsoon surge in Colorado occurs 8/16-8/18. Colorado is currently isolated and protected by the position of the key […]
Tag: Meteorologist Chris Tomer
Monsoon surge trending weaker this weekend
Tomer’s Take: Overall intensity of this surge is trending a notch weaker in Colorado. Call it a low to medium intensity surge. The location of most precipitation accumulation is also changing. Overall it’s shifting East/Southeast. It favors the Southern Mountains, Continental Divide and East. Lower precip chances across the Western Slope. Saturday and Sunday mornings […]
Monsoon surge this weekend
Tomer’s Take: The next Monsoon surge occurs over the Mountains between Friday afternoon and Monday morning. The bulk of the precipitation occurs over the Southern Mountains with less impact as you go North. Overall, this is a moderate surge. Not as big as last week. Primary impact is for higher chances of midday/afternoon/evening rain and […]
Monsoon arrives and big event forecast update
Tomer’s Take: Peak surge underway. The first surge of Monsoon moisture combined with upper level jet support generated a major hailstorm in downtown Estes Park. Golfball sized hail (or larger) fell just outside Fort Collins in Wellington, Severance, and around Timnath. 1-3 inches of rainfall with a few different lines of thunderstorms accumulated around Fort […]
Monsoon looks robust for next two weeks
Tomer’s Take: The door remains wide open for an active Monsoon through 8/10. Atmospheric moisture values run 150-300% of normal through 8/10 over parts of Colorado – especially the Mountains south of I-70. Drier north of I-70. It’s important to time-out the surges. Life is more normal in-between surges. Two surges in my CO forecast: […]
Monsoon surge late week: Forecast details
Tomer’s Take: Major surge of Monsoon moisture hits AZ, NM, UT, and CO Thursday-Friday. In Colorado, this is the largest surge of the season so far. In Colorado, the Southern Mountains get hit the hardest. Flash flooding possible starting Wednesday afternoon/night with multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Total rainfall by 7/31 could run 1-4 inches in […]
Monsoon surge this weekend
Tomer’s Take: The Monsoon is 1-2 weeks earlier than normal and it’s here to stay (normal Monsoon season is July-August in Colorado). The first official surge of the season occurred last weekend. This weekend’s surge looks bigger and intensity peaks on Saturday. The biggest impact occurs in the San Juan and Sangre De Cristo Mountain […]
Monsoon preview this weekend
Tomer’s Take: A surge of pre-Monsoon season moisture hits Colorado Saturday-Monday. Normal Monsoon season runs July-August. The areas most affected are the Western Slope and Southern Mountains of Colorado. Precipitable water increases to 200% of June 30-year average values. Bottom line: plan on smaller weather windows. Expect mountain thunderstorms by 10am or earlier across the […]
Deep snow in the Sangre De Cristo’s
Tomer’s Take: Total maximum new snow between 5/20-5/25 above treeline in the Sangre De Cristo’s likely ranged from 1-4 feet. Amounts below treeline were likely on the low end of this range with melting and compaction. The biggest totals might favor East facing slopes. SWE maxed out at 4.1″ over Hayden Pass and 3.8″ at […]
Reflections on 5/20-5/21 Snowstorm
Tomer’s Take: Mountain and Foothill totals ranged from 1 to 2.5ft. This is in-line with forecast amounts. Ratios ranged from 10:1 to 14:1. That made 12:1 the average storm ratio, which is low for many Colorado mountain zones. Mid-winter ratios run 14:1 or higher. Snow density was high with SWE ranging from 1″ to 2.7″. […]