Monsoon preview this weekend

Tomer’s Take:

  • A surge of pre-Monsoon season moisture hits Colorado Saturday-Monday. Normal Monsoon season runs July-August.
  • The areas most affected are the Western Slope and Southern Mountains of Colorado.
  • Precipitable water increases to 200% of June 30-year average values.
  • Bottom line: plan on smaller weather windows. Expect mountain thunderstorms by 10am or earlier across the Western Slope and Southern Mountains. And, overnight/morning rain is possible in the San Juan’s on Sunday morning and possibly Monday morning.

Colorado state climatologist Dr. Russ Schumacher says it’s a robust moisture surge by June standards:

Precipitable water % of normal on Sunday morning 6/19.

Forecast precipitable water % of normal valid 6/19, GFS interpretation.

Hourly forecast for 13-14ers in the Central San Juan Mountains. Notice the rain and thunder chances (and south winds).

NWS digital hourly forecast for high central San Juan Mountains.

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