Monsoon surge late week: Forecast details

Tomer’s Take:

  • Major surge of Monsoon moisture hits AZ, NM, UT, and CO Thursday-Friday.
  • In Colorado, this is the largest surge of the season so far.
  • In Colorado, the Southern Mountains get hit the hardest. Flash flooding possible starting Wednesday afternoon/night with multiple rounds of thunderstorms.
  • Total rainfall by 7/31 could run 1-4 inches in the Southern Mountains of CO.
  • Rain/t-storms might continue through the night.
  • Brief 14er summit snow possible late Thursday into Friday morning.

7/26 5:30am Water vapor satellite shows the seasonal Monsoon in full swing. Red/orange = drier air aloft.

Water vapor satellite 7/26/2022 5:30am.

Surge Forecast

I’ve had numerous forecast requests for late week and weekend from hikers, trail runners, and mountaineers. I’m also looking at longer range trends for Nolan’s.

  • This is a major surge for areas south of I-70 in Colorado between Wednesday night and Saturday night. Peak moisture occurs Thursday-Friday.
  • I consider Thursday-Friday “no go” days on the 13ers/14ers in the Southern Mountains. But, Wednesday afternoon and Saturday should also be approached with caution as moisture levels stay high.

Forecast Precipitation Chances:

Mount EolusAMPM
Mount Eolus precipitation forecast.

Digital hourly forecast for 13,000ft around Mount Elbert valid 7/28-7/29:

Forecast for 13K around Mount Elbert valid 7/28-7/29.

Forecast rain grand totals by 7/31.

Forecast rainfall grand totals by 7/31, EPS model.

4 thoughts on “Monsoon surge late week: Forecast details

  1. Tim Cooney

    Thanks for the forecast. Much needed moisture coming but not good climbing weather. Still looks like lower percent chances north of I-70?

  2. Liz Wojcicki

    Hey Chris. What about lower elevations like segment 1 & 2? Thank you.

    1. christomer Post author

      Hi Liz – Sections 1-2:
      THR: high chance for afternoon rain/t-storms. Flash flooding possible.
      FRI: AM dry, PM 80% rain/t-storms.
      SAT: drier, 20% PM rain/t-storms.

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