Category: Skiing

Winter Forecast 2023-2024

Tomer’s Take: A Strong El Nino is likely with a screaming Subtropical Jet across the Southern Tier by January, February, March, April, and May 2024. I believe we’ll see a 30% El Nino Modoki contribution. This puts several major ski resorts on ‘The Bubble’. Atmospheric River (AR) setups are likely along with large East Coast […]

What’s Next? End of August and September Forecast Looks Active

Tomer’s Take: Persistent trough is king out West, and this might foreshadow what to expect this El Nino driven Winter. The seasonal Monsoon was three weeks late and intensity was disrupted. It was a victim of larger scale pattern. Lower atmospheric pressures dominate the West Coast through the end of August and then transition into […]

Weekend Mountain Weather, Snow for PNW, July 1 Forecast

Tomer’s Take: An abnormally wet June continues through this weekend across parts of the West with widespread afternoon rain/thunderstorms. A large trough moves into the PNW 6/17-6/21 with high wind and snow for the high Cascades and Volcanoes. Looking down the road, drier weather moves into the West late June through early July with a […]

El Nino is here: What to expect across the West

Tomer’s Take: El Nino has arrived. The triple-dip La Nina is over. Bottom line, El Nino is here through Winter 2024. The La Nina for a generation The 2022-2023 La Nina delivered big time to CA, UT, and CO. In fact, it overdelivered. It overperformed in ways not seen in historical records. It was a […]

Rain totals last 30 days; What’s next?

Tomer’s Take: Parts of Colorado are soaked after record rainfall totals over the last 30 days. Some places are pushing a foot of rainfall. The pattern stays wetter than normal through June 15 then returns to a “normal” precipitation pattern after June 15 through June 30. Denver Front Range Accumulated precipitation May 1 – June […]

Update: June Looks Wet

Tomer’s Take: I’m forecasting above normal early to mid June precipitation for most of the West with a powerful Subtropical Jet Stream. But, what above mid to late June? Data points to drier air for a few states including CO, WY, NM, AZ. Rich Flow with Subtropical Jet Valid 6/10: This is not normal for […]

June Looks Wet

Tomer’s Take: I’m forecasting a wetter than normal start to June across the Intermountain West. Why? Extra moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean will flood the atmosphere. The door is wide open at all key atmospheric levels. Precipitable water anomalies run 100-300% of normal. This extra moisture fuels widespread afternoon rain and […]

Weekend Mountain Weather update; Early June Looking Wet

Tomer’s Take: Forecast freezing levels stay elevated. This forces the snowpack to continue melting across the West. I’m also forecasting afternoon thunderstorms almost every single day across the Intermountain West with a rich feed of moisture. Early June could be wetter than normal. 11:30am view from Vail looking East/Northeast across the Gore Range. Snow continues […]

Less Smoke!

Tomer’s Take: The large plume of thick wildfire smoke has moved out of Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana. It’s moving east. What’s next? The afternoon thunderstorm pattern continues across the Intermountain West along with a rich moisture feed. The smoke has cleared! Look at this before/after showing much clearer view from Arapahoe Basin looking West-Southwest (5/22 […]

Photos: Deep Summit Snow on 14,115′ Pikes Peak

Tomer’s Take: Luke Doyle sent me several amazing photos of crews clearing the road to the 14,115′ summit of Pikes Peak. The bulk of this deep snow occurred during the ‘super soaker storm system’ on 5/10-5/12. I estimated 3-4 feet accumulated. All photos are from Luke Doyle who is a senior equipment operator on Pikes […]