Tomer’s Take: It’s a busy weekend ahead for athletes with both the Pikes Peak Ascent/Marathon and Run Rabbit Run 50/100M. Both events will have weather impacts early in the weekend, drier later. I’m forecasting new snow accumulation above treeline on 9/14 and 9/15 with a cold front and active Subtropical Jet Stream. Pikes Peak Summit […]
Category: Trail Running
Snow on Colorado’s 14ers with More to Come
Tomer’s Take: The first snow of the season is covering some of Colorado’s 14ers including Longs Peak. Additional snow accumulation is likely through 9/15. 14er summit temps are now falling into the teens and 20s. Why? An enhanced Subtropical Jet Stream plus remnant moisture from a hurricane. I also include a forecast for the Run […]
Foreshadowing Winter: Rain/Snow with Subtropical Jet hits Colorado 9/10-9/15
Tomer’s Take: Rain/Snow appear likely for parts of Colorado between the afternoon of 9/10 and 9/15. The 14ers could see snow accumulation. Why? The Subtropical Jet is back plus it will entrain some of CAT-5 Jova’s moisture. Remember it from May, June and early July? This is a foreshadowing of what to expect this Winter. […]
Update: Labor Day Weekend Mountain Forecast
Tomer’s Take: A dip in the jet, trough of low pressure, and small surge of Monsoon moisture remains in my forecast for the West between 9/1-9/5. I say 9/5 now because there might be one additional small area of low pressure riding the coattails. This pattern delivers cooler mountain temps and rain/snow/thunderstorms. Snow accumulation appears […]
Labor Day Weekend Mountain Forecast Looks Active
Tomer’s Take: A dip in the jet stream, trough of low pressure, and small surge of Monsoonal moisture hits the Intermountain West between 9/1-9/4 then the pattern dries out. Who’s included? AZ, UT, NV, CO, WY, ID, MT. Precipitation will include rain, snow, and thunderstorms. Storm System Below is forecast jet stream level valid 9/2-9/3. […]
Hilary could hammer the Western High Peaks with snow and wind
Tomer’s Take: The remnants of Hurricane Hilary could impact many of the high peaks across the West 8/20-8/21 with strong wind and precipitation including very heavy snow on some California 14ers. This assumes the storm system stays on track. Below, the visible satellite view from GOES-18 shows Hurricane Hilary. I drew on the projected path. […]
What’s Next? End of August and September Forecast Looks Active
Tomer’s Take: Persistent trough is king out West, and this might foreshadow what to expect this El Nino driven Winter. The seasonal Monsoon was three weeks late and intensity was disrupted. It was a victim of larger scale pattern. Lower atmospheric pressures dominate the West Coast through the end of August and then transition into […]
Update: Ultra Season – Managing the Monsoon
Tomer’s Take: The Monsoon is late and weak. Moisture is slowly increasing across the desert southwest. Moisture increases in Colorado on 7/26 and ramps up into the first week of August. AZ, NM, NV, WY, UT, CO can all expect an increase in thunderstorms. The biggest Monsoon surge of the season so far is on […]
Ultra Season – Managing the Monsoon, Hardrock 100
Tomer’s Take: Records will break. New FKT’s will be set. Athletes are currently attempting to make history. They also have to manage the weather. Monsoon Season Normally, Monsoon Season in Colorado runs July 1 – August 31. Atmospheric winds shift southerly. This opens the door for moisture transport from the Gulf and Pacific. This new […]
Where’s the Monsoon?
Tomer’s Take: We’re still waiting on the arrival the Seasonal Monsoon. It remains blocked by a high pressure dome and strong Subtropical Jet Stream. This jet is also generating strong wind on many high peaks across the West. Data suggest a possible Monsoon arrival after 7/20, but confidence is low. Normally, Monsoon Season runs July […]