Snow forecast next 8 days

Tomer’s Take: The first of two storm systems is currently hitting the Sierra then ID, MT, WY, UT, CO. Storm #2 hits the same areas 12/3-12/5 with heavy snow accumulation. Grand totals will be measured in feet.

  • Storm #1 delivers 40-80mph wind gusts to UT, WY, and CO.
  • Looking down the road, the jet flow remains active through 12/10.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the big low hitting CA. Storm #2 is right on its heels over the Pacific.

Infrared satellite 9:55am 12/1/2022.

Forecast Pattern

Storm #1 + Storm #2 both follow a powerful stream combination.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/2.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/2/2022.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/7.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/7/2022.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/10. The flow remains active.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/10/2022.

Wind Gust Forecast: Storm #1

MPH12/112/212/3
Capitol Peak507030
Longs Peak606045
Kings Peak554530
Wheeler Peak456540
Forecast wind gusts.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar and satellite valid 12/1-12/6.

Forecast radar/satellite valid 12/1-12/6.

Forecast Totals

The combined the totals from storm #1 + storm #2 are impressive. For example:

  • Alta, UT: 24″ + 24″ = 48″ grand total by 12/7.
  • Jackson Hole, WY: 20″ + 17″ = 37″ grand total by 12/7.
  • Heavenly, CA: 37″ + 17″ = 54″ grand total by 12/7.

Storm #1.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 12/1-12/3.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 12/1-12/3.

Storm #2.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 12/4-12/7.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 12/4-12/7.

My forecast video 12/1:

Two storm combo with big totals through 12/7

Tomer’s Take: A two-storm combo delivers feet of snow to many Western mountain zones through 12/7.

  • A weak atmospheric river (AR) remains in my forecast for CA ‘s Sierra between 12/1-12/2.
  • Storm #2 delivers a very weak AR on 12/3-12/4.
  • Both storm systems drop heavy snow accumulation across the interior Rockies.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows storm #2 and storm #3 lined-up. The southern jet branch also gets involved in the AR.

Infrared satellite 7:40am 11/30/2022.

Forecast Pattern through 12/7

Storm #1 hits the Sierra hard with a powerful N+S jet combo and weak atmospheric river (AR).

Forecast jet stream valid 12/1.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/1.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/7.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/7.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar and satellite valid 11/30-12/5.

Forecast radar and satellite valid 11/30-12/5.

Forecast Totals

Storm #1 + Storm #2 grand total snow.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/30-12/7.

My forecast numbers for the Sierra might be a touch high but let’s see how much moisture gets blown in with this AR.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/30-12/7.

My forecast video 11/30:

Two more storm systems for the West

Tomer’s Take: Storm #1 is sliding through Colorado with two additional storm systems lined-up through 12/6.

  • California’s biggest snow arrives with storm #2 between 12/1-12/2. This storm also delivers a weak atmospheric river (AR) setup.
  • Storm #3 traverses the West between 12/3-12/6. This storm also delivers a very weak atmospheric river (AR) setup.

Jackson Hole, WY is reporting a 16″ storm total.

Alta, UT is reporting 16″ in 24 hours.

This is in-line with my forecasts.

Brighton, UT is reporting 8″ in 24 hours. Here’s the view:

Brighton, UT 8am 11/29/2022.

Vail is reporting 9″ in the last 24 hours.

Steamboat, CO is showing about a foot of new snow.

Steamboat, CO 8am 11/29/2022.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows all three storm systems riding the jet stream. The southern jet branch is also a player.

Infrared satellite 8:10am 11/29/2022.

Pattern Through 12/6

Storm #2.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/1.

This is the heavy hitter for the Sierra a weak atmospheric river contribution and optimal orographics.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/1.

Storm #3 departing.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/6.

This is the final storm in the series.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/6.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar and satellite valid 11/29-12/4.

Forecast radar and satellite valid 11/29-12/4.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/29-12/7.

This represents grand totals from storm #2 + storm #3.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/29-12/7.

Major totals for the West with three storm combo

Tomer’s Take: Three different storm systems are lined-up for the West through 12/6 with major grand totals.

  • Excellent forcing with this storm cycle including orographics, much colder air pushing efficient ratios, weak atmospheric river (AR) setup for California, and southern jet branch involvement.
  • Grand totals by 12/6 will be measured in feet at numerous ski areas.

Jackson Hole is already reporting a foot of new snow in the last 24 hours. This is only storm #1.

Jackson Hole 9:55am 11/28/2022.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows a crowded Pacific with low pressure systems lined-up and southern jet branch involvement.

9:45am 11/28/2022.

Active Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 11pm 11/28 shows the first of three different storm systems with major jet support. This first storm largely misses CA’s Sierra. High wind and much colder air follows this storm system.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/28/2022.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/6 shows an active storm track continuing. The overall track is further north versus yesterday’s data. This favors the northern tier of the Rockies for heaviest snowfall including PNW, BC, ID, MT, WY, UT, CO.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/6/2022.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar and satellite valid 11/28-12/3.

Forecast radar and satellite valid 11/28-12/3.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/28-11/30.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/28-11/30.

Forecast totals (inches) valid 12/1-12/6.

Forecast totals (inches) valid 12/1-12/6.

Forecast totals (inches) valid 11/28-12/6.

Forecast totals (inches) valid 11/28-12/6.

My forecast video 11/28:

Big snow totals for the West

Tomer’s Take: 2-3 different storm systems are lined-up for the West through 12/6.

  • Excellent forcing with orographics, colder air, and subtropical branch involvement.
  • CA could see a weak atmospheric river setup.

Current Setup

Visible/Infrared satellite shows a parade of storm systems lined-up including an active southern jet branch.

5:30pm 11/27/2022.

Pattern Forecast

The first storm system only brushes CA but nails UT, WY, CO with moderate to heavy snow accumulation, wind, and much colder air.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/28/2022.

Looking way down the road, the storm track remains active on 12/6. The flow is favorable to PNW, BC, CA, ID, WY, UT, and CO for big totals.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/6/2022.

Forecast Snow Totals

Forecast totals (inches) valid 11/27-11/29.

Forecast totals (inches) valid 11/27-11/29.

Forecast totals (inches) valid 11/30-12/5.

Forecast totals (inches) valid 11/30-12/5.

Three storm combo for West and big totals

Tomer’s Take: The pattern is about to turn a lot more active for the West with three different storm systems lined-up through 12/3.

  • Storm #1 is minor and fast-moving 11/26-11/27 with only light snow accumulation for PNW, ID, MT, WY, UT, CO.
  • Storm #2 is major with colder air 11/27-11/29 for the same region.
  • Storm #3 is major and goes further south 11/30-12/3 benefitting PNW, CA, MT, ID, WY, UT, CO, NM.

Current Setup

Visible satellite shows a crowded storm track with several low pressure systems lined-up in the Pacific. The southern branch of the jet stream is also active.

Visible satellite 3:50pm 11/25/2022.

Western Jet Stream

Storm #1 is minor, fast-moving with light snow accumulation 11/26-11/27.

Storm #2 (below) is major with better jet support and a load of cold air from Canada.

The storm track is energized.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/28/2022.

Storm #3 (below) is riding a fast west-to-east jet stream and plenty of moisture potential.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/2/2022.

Forecast Snowfall

Storm #1 accumulation with some PNW influence from storm #2.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/25-11/27.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/25-11/27.

Storm #2 accumulation with some CA/PNW influence from storm #3.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/28-12/1.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/28-12/1.

Storm #3.
Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 12/2-12/3.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 12/2-12/3.

Thanksgiving update

Tomer’s Take: A much more active pattern for the West looms after 11/27 with widespread snow and colder temps.

  • There are two storm systems for the West between 11/27 and 12/3.
  • The combination generates heavy widespread accumulation.
  • In the Northeast, three different storm systems are lined-up through 12/2. The first is minor on 11/25. The 2nd is mainly rain (then changes to snow) on 11/27-11/28, and the third is similar on 11/30-12/1.

Current Setup

Visible satellite shows the storm track and two low pressure systems lined-up over the Pacific. Both will impact the West, but the first low is minor and fast-moving. The 2nd low becomes a widespread snow producer 11/27-11/29.

Visible satellite 5pm 11/24/2022.

Northeast Pattern

The track of storm #2 and #3 follow this jet pattern. They are too far north leaving most ski areas warm enough for rain initially (then snow on the backside).

Forecast jet stream valid 11/27/2022.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/24-12/2.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/24-12/2.

Western Pattern

Storm #1: A big dip in the stream delivers colder air and widespread snow accumulation across the West.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/28.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/28/2022.

Storm #2: Similar track to storm #1 (a little further south) with colder air and widespread snow accumulation.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/2.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/2.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/24-11/26.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/24-11/26.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/27-12/2.

This forecast chart captures total accumulation from both Storm #1 and Storm #2.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/27-12/2.

Pattern through December 1

Tomer’s Take: Snow is sneaking through the Western Ridge 11/23-11/24 with a larger pattern change after 11/25.

  • In the Northeast, a minor storm system slides through 11/25 with light snow accumulation. 2nd warmer storm system 11/27-11/28 is initially rain then changes over to snow. 3rd storm system 11/30-12/1 also starts as rain then changes over to snow.
  • Out West, widespread heavy snow likely 11/27-12/1.

Current Setup

Two inches of new snow is reported at Jackson Hole this morning from the “sneaker low pressure”. This snow is headed for the Central and Northern Mountains of Colorado next.

New snow at Jackson Hole, WY 11/23/2022.

Infrared satellite shows the low pressure sneaking through the Western Ridge. Large 2nd storm system helps usher in a pattern change later in the month.

Infrared satellite 9am 11/23/2022.

Northeast Pattern

What was once a snowy outlook has flipped 180 degrees. A minor low slides through 11/25. Then two larger but warmer storm systems race on 11/27-11/28 and 11/30-12/1. Both start as rain.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/26.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/26/2022.

Forecast total snowfall (inches) valid 11/23-11/29.

Forecast total snow valid 11/23-11/29.

Western Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 11/28 shows a large trough replacing the high pressure ridge. This pattern would support widespread snow and colder temps.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/28/2022.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/1 continues to show an active pattern for the West.

Forecast jet stream valid 12/1/2022.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/23-11/28.

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/23-11/28.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/23-11/25.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/23-11/25.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/26-12/1.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/26-12/1.

My forecast video 11/23:

Snow forecast next 8 days

Tomer’s Take: Northeast storm system 11/25-11/26 trending much weaker with possible 2nd storm system 11/27-11/28.

  • Northeast snow amounts continue trending lighter 11/25-11/26. Low pressure appears to be an open wave.
  • Additional accumulation with 2nd storm system 11/27-11/28. This could be the stronger of the two storm systems.
  • Larger pattern change for the West 11/25-12/1. Widespread snow and colder temps appear likely.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows two storm systems that degrade the high pressure ridge. The first low sneaks through 11/22-11/24. The 2nd low has a more a more profound effect across the West on/after 11/25.

Infrared satellite 7:40am 11/22/2022.

Northeast Storm System

What a wild ride this forecast has been. The potential for a large storm system 11/25-11/26 is diminishing.

Forecast jet stream on 11/26. Note the initial storm system 11/25-11/26 is now merely an open wave. A second storm system might be more promising.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/26/2022.

Forecast total snowfall (inches) valid 11/22-11/28.

Forecast total snowfall valid 11/22-11/28.

Western Ridge Breaks Down

Forecast jet stream valid 11/29. Western ridge is replaced by a large trough with low pressure systems moving through. This would translate into widespread snow and colder temps.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/29/2022.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/22-11/27.

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/22-11/27.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/22-11/24.

Forecast total snowfall valid 11/22-11/24.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/25-11/30.

Forecast total snowfall valid 11/25-11/30.

My forecast video 11/22:

Northeast uncertainty; Western Ridge breaks down

Tomer’s Take: Northeast storm system remains in question. Western ridge starts to weaken with moisture sneaking through on 11/22.

  • Intensity and track of potential Northeast storm system remains uncertain with inconsistent data.
  • Moisture breaks through Western ridge on 11/22.
  • Larger pattern change 11/24-12/1 with trough replacing ridge and higher chances for snow.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the Western ridge and next low pressure that will push moisture through the ridge into the PNW/BC.

Infrared satellite 8am 11/21/2022.

Northeast Storm System?

Forecast jet stream valid 11/25 continues to show a large dip in the jet stream. What happens after this is still in question.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/25.

Snowfall forecast contrast: Yesterday (11/20) afternoon versus today (11/21). Talk about inconsistent data. Pull the slider back and forth:

Western Ridge Breaks Down

Forecast jet stream valid 11/29. The high pressure ridge is gone and replaced by a large trough. This would support colder air and widespread snow across CA, UT, CO, WY, ID MT, PNW, BC.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/29/2022.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/21-11/26.

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/21-11/26.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/21-11/23.

Forecast snow totals valid 11/21-11/23.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/24-11/29.

Forecast snow totals valid 11/24-11/29.