End of Season, Blog Status, La Nina Watch, and Monsoon Forecast

Tomer’s Take: I typically stop regular ski/snow blog posts after April 1 each season. Going forward, I’ll post less frequently with other topics. In this post I cover Western Snowpack, a look back at my Winter forecast, May 2024 forecast, La Nina Watch, and Summer Monsoon forecast.

THANKS to everyone who stopped by my Blog this Winter!

I’ll keep my YouTube channel snow/ski forecast videos going for a little while longer. I might add forecast videos through the Spring & Summer depending on the weather pattern.

A few interesting items:

Western Snowpack valid 4/10/2024.

For reference, here was my forecast for this Winter (from September 2023):

->Alta, UT ended up with 611″ of snowfall and counting (they close on April 21). That’s a big season (but not as big as last season’s record-breaking 900″+).

->Steamboat, CO ended up with 375 inches and counting (they close on April 21).

->Jackson Hole, WY ended up with 446″ of snowfall and counting (they close on April 14).

-> Aspen Highlands, CO ended with about 370″ of snowfall according to Aspenweather.net. Check out their App, which specializes in snow forecasts for Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Buttermilk, and Snowmass. My video forecasts can also be seen there.

->Palisades Tahoe ended up with 394″ of snowfall. Several AR events helped deliver.

The Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes says the West Coast experienced 51 atmospheric river (AR) events between 10/2023 – 3/2024.

ENSO Forecast

We’re currently on La Nina Watch. El Nino is fading and we’re headed into a Neutral Phase and then quickly into La Nina by June 2024. La Nina looks to persist into Winter 2024-2025.

Below is the European Model forecast for sea surface temps in the South Pacific near the Equator (NINO 3.4 zone). The red lines move towards colder water temps (La Nina).

May 2024 Forecast

The ECMWF suggests the pattern below. Green represents above normal precipitation, and brown/tan represents below normal precipitation.

Monsoon Forecast

La Nina normally tilts the odds in favor a wetter than normal Summer (July-August) Monsoon Season across the West.

This Weekend and Beyond

Tomer’s Take: It’s a powder day in UT/WY/CO! The next storm system hits the Sierra this afternoon then rolls towards the Four Corners with snow for UT/WY/CO/NM through 4/1. A pattern shift after 4/2 delivers 1-2 additional Canadian storm storm systems. The first week of April looks active.

Timing

2-3 Storm Systems Through 4/7, Big Totals.

Wasatch: H PM 3/29-3/31, H 4/4-4/5.

Tetons: M 3/30, H 3/31, M/H 4/4-4/5.

Colorado: H 3/29, L 3/30, H 3/31, L 4/1, H PM 4/5-4/7.

Sierra: H PM 3/29-3/31, M 4/4-4/7.

Northeast: H 4/3-4/4.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the current storm system moving through CO and the larger trough approaching CA.

The other two storm systems in the Pacific move into Canada then drop south after 4/2 with a pattern shift.

Moisture aloft = white/blues.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand totals by late 4/7.

Northeast:

Heavy snow potential 4/2-4/3.

Snow forecast through 4/6

Tomer’s Take: Big totals are likely through 4/6 with 3-4 different storm systems, and I think we’re looking at an active April with above normal snowfall across parts of Colorado’s Western Slope, Utah’s Wasatch, and Wyoming’s Tetons.

Timing

Wasatch: L/M Tonight, L PM 3/29, H 3/30 – AM 4/1, H PM 4/4-4/6.

Tetons: M 3/30, H 3/31, H 4/4-4/5.

Colorado: H Late 3/28-3/29, L 3/30, H 3/31, L 4/1, H 4/6-4/7.

Sierra: H 3/29 – AM 4/1, M 4/4.

Northeast: H 4/2-4/5.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the next two areas of low pressure through 4/2. After 4/2, the northern jet buckles and delivers 1-2 additional storm systems through 4/6.

Moisture aloft = white/blues.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand totals by late 4/6.

Northeast:

Heavy snow potential 4/2-4/5.

Snowy Period Ahead through 4/5

Tomer’s Take: Two storm systems are lined-up through 4/2 then a pattern shift occurs with a third storm system dropping south from Canada with heavy snow accumulation.

Timing

Two Storm Systems Through 4/2 Then Shift North.

Third Storm System Trending Stronger 4/3-4/6.

Sierra: H Tonight – AM 3/28, H PM 3/29-3/31.

Tetons: H 3/28, L 3/30, H 3/31, H 4/3-4/5.

Wasatch: M/H 3/28, H PM 3/29-3/31, H 4/4-4/5.

Colorado: H 3/29-4/1, H 4/5.

Northeast: L 3/27, H 4/2-4/4.

My forecast update video:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the first two areas of low pressure lined-up through 4/2.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand totals by late 4/5.

Northeast:

This assumes temperatures on 4/2-4/4 are cold enough to support snow.

Next storm system hits WY/UT/CO through early 3/27; Heavy accumulation arrives 3/28-3/31.

Tomer’s Take: Light to moderate snow accumulation hits UT/WY/CO through early 3/27. Heavier accumulation arrives 3/28-3/31 with two additional storm systems. A pattern change occurs 4/3-4/5 with energy dropping south out of Canada/BC/PNW.

Timing

*Updated 4:30pm 3/26/2024.

CO/UT Light/Moderate snow accumulation tonight – AM 3/27.

Sierra: H PM 3/27 – AM 3/28, H PM 3/29-3/31.

Tetons: M/H 3/28, H PM 3/31.

Wasatch: L/M PM 3/26 – AM 3/27, H 3/28, H PM 3/29-4/1.

Colorado: L/M PM 3/26 – AM 3/27, H 3/29-4/1.

Northeast: L 3/27, R/S 4/2-4/3.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand totals by late 4/4.

Three Storm Systems Through 4/3

Tomer’s Take: It’s a powder Monday in UT/WY/CO/NM! This storm system is pivoting through Southern Colorado and New Mexico next 12-24 hours then away. There are three additional storm systems lined-up through 4/3.

Timing

*Updated 4pm 3/25/2024.

Storm System pivots out of CO/NM.

Three Storm Systems Remaining through 4/3.

Sierra: H PM 3/27-3/30.

Tetons: L Tonight, L/M 3/26, H Late 3/27-3/28, H 3/29-3/31.

Wasatch: L Tonight, M 3/26, H 3/28-3/30, H PM 3/31-4/1.

Colorado: L/M PM 3/26, L/M PM 3/28-3/29, H 3/31-4/1.

Northeast: L 3/27, H 4/2.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the CO/NM storm pivoting away. The Pacific is loaded with three additional storm systems.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand totals by late 4/3.

CO/NM Storm System; The Week Ahead

Tomer’s Take: A strong storm system spins up in SE CO/NM tonight through 3/25 with heavy snow accumulation and 30-50mph wind gusts. The heavy snow continues into 3/26 in NM.

There are three additional storm systems lined-up for the West through 4/2.

Timing

Sierra: H PM 3/27-3/31.

Tetons: L/M Tonight, L PM 3/25-3/26, H 3/28-3/30.

Wasatch: L Tonight-3/25, M/H 3/26, H 3/28-3/30.

Colorado: H Tonight – AM 3/25, H 3/26 – AM 3/27, H 4/1-4/2.

Denver, CO: Rain initially, falling temps, turns to snow until 5am 3/25, 40-50mph gusts, drier after 5am 3/25.

New Mexico: H Tonight-3/26, H 4/1-4/2.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the developing area of low pressure in SE CO/NM.

There are additional storm systems lined-up in the Pacific riding a strong jet stream.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand totals by late 4/2.

This Weekend & Beyond

Tomer’s Take: I’m forecasting four different storm systems for the West through late 3/31 with feet of grand total accumulation.

Timeline

*Updated 4pm 3/22/2024.

Snow moving into the Sierra tonight through early 3/24.

Four Storm Systems Through 3/31.

Sierra: H Accum PM 3/22- AM 3/24, H 3/27-3/30.

Tetons: H Accum 3/23-3/24, L 3/26-3/27, H 3/28-3/31.

Wasatch: L PM 3/22, M/H Accum PM 3/23-3/26, H 3/28-3/31.

Colorado: H Accum PM 3/23-3/25, L 3/26, H PM 3/28-3/31.

Northeast: H Accum 3/23, L 3/27.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows all four storm systems lined-up.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand totals by late 3/31.

Northeast:

VT/NH/ME: Heavy accumulation 3/23, heavy 3/28.

Big totals through 3/30 with four storm systems

Tomer’s Take: Now I’m seeing four different storm systems through 3/30. This means feet of grand total accumulation for PNW/MT/ID/CA/WY/UT/CO.

Timing

*Updated 4:15pm 3/21/2024.

Four Storm Systems Through 3/30.

Sierra: H Accum PM 3/22-3/24, H 3/27, H 3/29-3/30.

Tetons: L Accum 3/21, M/H 3/23-3/25, L 3/26, H 3/28.

Wasatch: L Accum PM 3/21, H 3/23, L 3/24-3/26, H 3/28, H 3/30.

Colorado: L Accum Late 3/21, H 3/23-3/25, M 3/26, H 3/28-3/30.

Northeast: Heavy Accum 3/23, H 3/27-3/29.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows all four storm systems lined-up. The first storm system fights high pressure and disintegrates but lays the groundwork for the remaining three storm systems to arrive full-force.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand totals by late 3/30.

Northeast:

Heavy snow accumulation 3/23, moderate 3/27-3/28.

Big totals with three storm systems lined-up through 3/28

Tomer’s Take: Big totals are likely 3/22-3/28 with three different storm systems lined-up for PNW/BC/MT/ID/CA/UT/WY/CO.

Timing

Pattern Shift After 3/21, Three Storm Systems.

Sierra: Heavy Accum PM 3/22 – AM 3/24.

Tetons: L/M Accum 3/21, H 3/23-3/28.

Wasatch: Light Accum PM 3/21, H 3/23-3/28.

Colorado: Light Accum PM 3/21-3/22, H 3/23-3/28.

Banff Area: Heavy Accum PM 3/20 – AM 3/24.

Northeast: L Accum PM 3/20, M/H 3/23, M 3/28.

My forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows all three storm systems lined-up in the Pacific.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand totals by late 3/20.

Northeast:

VT/NH/ME moderate to heavy accumulation 3/23, moderate 3/28.