La Nina is here for the 2nd straight Fall/Winter. Sea surface temps (SST’s) in the equatorial south Pacific have cooled to -0.5C (the official minimal threshold).
The bulk of data suggests that La Nina continues through the entire upcoming Winter (87% chance according to NOAA). If you haven’t yet, please check out my Winter forecast. In that video I explain why it’s important to identify the phase each season, and what it means for the storm track in mountainous environments.
A lingering question in my mind is California. Where will the average storm track position itself? Will it be north or south of Tahoe? I believe Tahoe ends up with a normal winter with 1-3 strong atmospheric river setups this Winter.
Another question: How cold will this La Nina phase go? Will SST’s cool below the bulk of data? If so then we could be looking at what meteorologist Cory Gates and Ryan Boudreau are forecasting. I highlighted their 2nd opinion in an earlier post.