Tomer’s Take: Rain/Snow appear likely for parts of Colorado between the afternoon of 9/10 and 9/15. The 14ers could see snow accumulation. Why? The Subtropical Jet is back plus it will entrain some of CAT-5 Jova’s moisture. Remember it from May, June and early July? This is a foreshadowing of what to expect this Winter. […]
Category: Storm Chasing
Labor Day Weekend Mountain Forecast Looks Active
Tomer’s Take: A dip in the jet stream, trough of low pressure, and small surge of Monsoonal moisture hits the Intermountain West between 9/1-9/4 then the pattern dries out. Who’s included? AZ, UT, NV, CO, WY, ID, MT. Precipitation will include rain, snow, and thunderstorms. Storm System Below is forecast jet stream level valid 9/2-9/3. […]
Curveballs: Labor Day Weekend Mountain Forecast and Beyond
Tomer’s Take: In my last update, I highlighted an active weather pattern for Labor Day Weekend and early September across the Intermountain West. The moisture will come in two waves, and you might even say curveballs. The first includes the remnants of a tropical system plus Monsoonal moisture 8/25-8/27, and a Monsoonal surge 8/31-9/2. Beyond […]
What’s Next? End of August and September Forecast Looks Active
Tomer’s Take: Persistent trough is king out West, and this might foreshadow what to expect this El Nino driven Winter. The seasonal Monsoon was three weeks late and intensity was disrupted. It was a victim of larger scale pattern. Lower atmospheric pressures dominate the West Coast through the end of August and then transition into […]
Update: Ultra Season – Managing the Monsoon
Tomer’s Take: The Monsoon is late and weak. Moisture is slowly increasing across the desert southwest. Moisture increases in Colorado on 7/26 and ramps up into the first week of August. AZ, NM, NV, WY, UT, CO can all expect an increase in thunderstorms. The biggest Monsoon surge of the season so far is on […]
Where’s the Monsoon?
Tomer’s Take: We’re still waiting on the arrival the Seasonal Monsoon. It remains blocked by a high pressure dome and strong Subtropical Jet Stream. This jet is also generating strong wind on many high peaks across the West. Data suggest a possible Monsoon arrival after 7/20, but confidence is low. Normally, Monsoon Season runs July […]
Red Rocks Hail Event 6/21
Summary: Quarter to golfball sized hail hit Red Rocks Amphitheatre around 9:30pm on 6/21. Authorities are reporting about 100 injuries. The atmosphere was primed. All major atmospheric ingredients were in place for severe thunderstorms with large hail, flash flooding, and tornadoes. The forecast timeline was 4pm to 10pm. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was in effect. […]
Pattern through July 1; Monsoon Season Preview
Tomer’s Take: The pattern is transitioning across the West. The abnormally wet pattern is moving out while more normal, warmer weather is moving in. This will introduce a drier period for the West until Monsoon Season kicks in. My opinion is that Monsoon Season will start about 1-2 weeks behind schedule. Normal Monsoon Season runs […]
Weekend Mountain Weather, Snow for PNW, July 1 Forecast
Tomer’s Take: An abnormally wet June continues through this weekend across parts of the West with widespread afternoon rain/thunderstorms. A large trough moves into the PNW 6/17-6/21 with high wind and snow for the high Cascades and Volcanoes. Looking down the road, drier weather moves into the West late June through early July with a […]
El Nino is here: What to expect across the West
Tomer’s Take: El Nino has arrived. The triple-dip La Nina is over. Bottom line, El Nino is here through Winter 2024. The La Nina for a generation The 2022-2023 La Nina delivered big time to CA, UT, and CO. In fact, it overdelivered. It overperformed in ways not seen in historical records. It was a […]