Tomer’s Take: Records will break. New FKT’s will be set. Athletes are currently attempting to make history. They also have to manage the weather.
Monsoon Season
Normally, Monsoon Season in Colorado runs July 1 – August 31. Atmospheric winds shift southerly. This opens the door for moisture transport from the Gulf and Pacific. This new moisture overspreads NM, AZ, NV, UT, CO, WY. It can also impact CA, ID, and MT at times. This moisture encourages and fuels widespread thunderstorms. Normal afternoon thunderstorms chances are about 20%-30%. During a Monsoon surge those percentages increase 50-100%, and weather can start earlier in the day and last well into the night.
Bottom Line: Surges of Monsoon moisture shrink weather windows.
Below are lightning flashes per day in Colorado. The peak occurs during Monsoon Season in July-August.
Ultra Season
I’m consulting with four different individuals trying to break FKT speed records in CO, WY, and MT.
The primary objective is choosing the right window and then normalizing active weather while attempting a record.
Hardrock 100
Hardrock starts July 14 at 6am. The theme this year is ‘Hot and Dry’.
Silverton, CO (9318′):
7/14: Dry, sun, 70/47F
7/15: Dry, sun, 70/48F
7/16: Dry, sun, 70/48F
Where’s the Monsoon?
It’s a late start to Monsoon Season. I’m forecasting minor Monsoon moisture on/after 7/18. A major surge might be lurking late July and early August.
Data suggest that El Nino can disrupt and weaken Monsoon Season. This might be a contributing factor right now.
Since May 1, the Subtropical Jet Stream has been king. Add to that a large dome of high pressure over Mexico blocking the Monsoon.
Subtropical Jet
Below is the jet stream forecast from 7/5. Also notice the high pressure dome. Both are blocking the Seasonal Monsoon.
The Subtropical Jet is like a conveyor belt escorting areas of low pressure and fronts from the Pacific into the Rockies. This is one reason parts of the West were so wet for two months.
Looking Ahead – Monsoon Forecast
Moisture increases across the Desert Southwest on/after 7/18. This is a minor surge.
Below is forecast precipitable water anomalies valid 7/19 – green and blue shaded areas represent wetter than normal areas:
- Southern CA, AZ, southern NV, UT, Western CO, NW NM.
Looking down the road, a major surge of Monsoon moisture is possible late July through early August.
Below, the Climate Forecast System is looking at percent of normal precipitation valid 7/23-8/2. The green and blue shaded areas represent wetter than normal areas:
- CA, NV, AZ, UT, southern ID, SE OR, WY, southern MT, CO, NW NM.
