Tomer’s Take: Rain/Snow appear likely for parts of Colorado between the afternoon of 9/10 and 9/15. The 14ers could see snow accumulation. Why? The Subtropical Jet is back plus it will entrain some of CAT-5 Jova’s moisture. Remember it from May, June and early July? This is a foreshadowing of what to expect this Winter. […]
Category: Fall Color
When will it snow, part 2
Tomer’s Take: Pattern change remains possible on/after 10/23 across the West. Beneficiaries: CO, UT, WY, ID, MT, PNW, Banff. Lower atmospheric pressures replace high pressure ridge. Snow and colder temps = net result. If this verifies it would be the first significant snowfall of the season for much of the Intermountain West. Current Setup Infrared […]
When will it snow?
Tomer’s Take: A large Western ridge of high pressure remains in control through 10/22. A pattern change is possible on/after 10/23. A large dip in the jet stream and lower atmospheric pressures might replace the large Western high pressure ridge. This pattern change might run 10/23-10/27. Net result: snow and colder temps for UT, CO, […]
Golden days of October
Tomer’s take: High pressure remains in control of the West. Mid-atmosphere pressure readings are running 2-3 standard deviations above (higher) the 20-year average. This pattern mirrors the Fall of 2021-2022. When will this change? Some data suggests 10/23. Current Setup Infrared satellite shows the large ridge of high pressure sitting over the Pacific/PNW/West. Crystal clear […]
The snow that wasn’t
Tomer’s Take: Significant snow in Colorado appeared likely based on data a few days ago. Now, that possibility has vanished. Why? It goes to what I talked about in my Winter Forecast: The North Pacific Heat Wave. This warmer than normal ocean water tends to anchor a large dome of high pressure over the PNW/West […]
High mountain snow likely in Colorado this weekend
Tomer’s Take: A series of cold fronts deliver colder air and snow accumulation above treeline Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in Colorado. Below treeline precipitation stays rain. Snow accumulation is possible in all mountain zones above treeline. Some of the biggest totals might occur in the San Juan Mountains. Air temps in the mountains will gradually […]
October snow forecast; Fall color update
Tomer’s Take: Two active periods for mountain snow are possible regulated by a ridge of high pressure. Two active periods slightly favor Western Slope zones for higher totals. Best accumulation will occur at higher elevations with melting in-between. Peak Fall color in Colorado is running behind schedule in some mountain zones. My full Winter Forecast […]
Merbok takes aim at Alaska; Weekend events in Colorado
Tomer’s Take: Remnants from Typhoon Merbok to bring 50ft seas and 70mph wind gusts to Alaska. In Colorado, remnants from Kay and a jet streak keep rain/snow and gusty wind going in the Central and Northern Mountain zones 9/15-9/17. Pikes Peak Ascent/Marathon and Run Rabbit Run events occur this weekend. Current Setup Water vapor satellite […]
Snowy period ahead for the West
Tomer’s Take 3-4 different April storm systems will slide across the West through 4/19 with significant grand total snowfall at mid and higher elevations. This will put the brakes on the Spring melt while adding new snow accumulation to mid and higher elevations. Bulk of snow timeline: Wasatch: 4/11-4/13, 4/16-4/17 Tetons: 4/10-4/14, 4/16-4/17 Colorado Zones: […]
La Nina continues into Summer
Water temperatures in the Equatorial South Pacific are running about 1.0C colder than normal. The latest forecast calls for water temps to stay colder than normal into Summer – through June-July-August. The blue bars in the graph below represent La Nina. Here’s a look at the model spread over time. We’ve been locked into La […]