Weekend snow chances

A windy, moisture-starved, and fast-moving cold front is currently racing through Utah, Montana, Wyoming, and into Colorado. I’m forecasting minor snow accumulation (or zero) for most ski areas.

Satellite with storm track. 11/16/2021 5am.

Notice the weekend storm system over the Pacific on the satellite image above. The jet stream ushers that low pressure into the West this weekend. Overall, it’s a minor storm system with a couple exceptions.

Jet stream pattern valid Saturday 11/20/2021, GFS interpretation.

I’m forecasting minor snow amounts between now and 5am Sunday for most of the Western ski areas. A couple places could push moderate to heavy accumulations like Jackson Hole, Grand Targhee, and the backcountry around Cameron Pass, CO. Click to enlarge:

Tomer snow forecast between 11/16-21/2021.

Snow forecast this week: Two cold fronts

The heaviest snow continues to fall in the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and western Alberta. Sunshine Village is reporting a foot of new snow in the last 48 hours.

Sunshine Village, AB snow stake cam. About 12″ in 48 hours. 11/15/2021 5am.

The storm system currently hitting the PNW will send a cold front south into the lower 48 on Tuesday-Wednesday. It’s a fast-moving, moisture starved cold front.

Water vapor satellite and storm track 11/15/2021 5am. Blue/Green = moisture, Red/Orange = Drier.

The jet stream will dip south with this cold front. Strong wind is likely Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday across the Intermountain West. I’m forecasting gusts of 30-70mph over the high peaks and ski areas.

Jet stream level forecast valid 11/16-17/2021. GFS interpretation.

There is a second storm system lined-up for the West and Intermountain West between Friday-Saturday. It has a touch more moisture than the first storm system but it still looks minor to me.

Here’s my snow forecast for 27 ski areas over the next 8 days, click to enlarge:

Tomer snow forecast 11/15/2021 5am.

My raw forecast data, click to enlarge:

Kettlebells and Forecasts

I started Sunday morning with a kettlebell workout. Simple and effective! Just the way I like it.

The Trio. 11/14/2021

For the last 12 months i’ve consistently tried to record these 3-5minute mountain weather forecast videos each day. The feedback has been positive so i’ll keep doing them. If you find them valuable please subscribe to my YouTube channel and you’ll be notified when I upload new ones.

Tomer forecast video 11/14/2021.

Mountain weather update 11/13

The storm track this weekend continues to favor the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and western Alberta. That’s where the heaviest precipitation will accumulate. Snow levels will initially get pushed up high to 8,000′ then fall as colder air filters in.

Water vapor satellite, blue is moisture, red/orange is drier air. 11/13/2021 9am.

Rain/Snow line for Whistler/Blackcomb this weekend.

Freezing Level (FT)11/1311/1411/15
Whistler/Blackcomb3600′8000′7k to 4k

I’m forecasting heavy snowfall Sunday-Monday through the interior high mountains of British Columbia and western Alberta around Banff. Snow levels will get pushed high initially then fall. Overall accumulations mid-mountain and higher could range from 10-20″.

Freezing Level (FT)11/1311/1411/15
Sunshine Village Ski4000′5k to 7k7k to 4k

Across the Intermountain West in the Lower 48, I’m not forecasting much snow through the weekend into early next week. The next cold front arrives Tuesday-Wednesday and again late week.

Here’s my snow forecast for the next 8 days, click to enlarge:

Tomer snow forecast 11/13/2021 8am.

My raw forecast data, click to enlarge:

Tomer forecast video 11/13/2021.

Snow forecast next 8 days 11/12

The hot spot this weekend is the Pacific Northwest for heaviest precipitation with only light snowfall across the Intermountain West. Notice on the satellite image where the blue/green clouds are located: PNW and British Columbia. Red/orange colors represent drier areas.

Water vapor satellite 11/12/2021 6am.

A large dome of high pressure will shield California from any significant snow over the next 7 days. Looking further down the road, the high pressure might start to break down late mid to late next week. Here’s a look at the storm track on Wednesday of next week 11/16-11/17.

Jet stream forecast valid 11/16-11/17/2021, GFS interpretation 11/12/2021.

As for the Intermountain West (CO, MT, WY, UT, NM), i’m not forecasting much snow this weekend. Next week there are two fast-moving, minor storm systems lined-up.

Here’s my snow forecast, click to enlarge:

Tomer snow forecast 11/12/2021 6am.

My raw forecast data table, click to enlarge:

Snow continues in Colorado 11/11: NW Flow

Another 6 inches fell at Loveland Ski Area with more on the way. I’m forecasting this northwest flow through Friday morning across the Central and Northern Mountain zones of Colorado.

Loveland Ski Area snow stake 11/11/2021 5am.

In Colorado this NW Flow is magical. It’s early season but it’s still having an impact. I’m forecasting additional snow accumulation through Friday.

Atmospheric wind flow at about 18,000ft according to GFS model 11/11/2021.

In the Pacific Northwest, the flow remains wet with impulses of heavy precipitation. The rain/snow line will be going up Thursday before going back down Friday.

Freezing Level (FT)11/1111/12
Whistler/Blackcomb4K to 8K6K to 4K
Tomer freezing level forecast at Whistler/Blackcomb 11/11/2021.

How much additional snow? Here’s my forecast including 3-4 feet on Mountain Rainer over the next 72 hours.

Mid-Mountain (Inches)11/1111/1211/13
Mount Rainier16352
Jackson Hole22
Winter Park22<1
Crested Butte<1
Red Mtn Pass<1
Copper Mtn1<1
Tomer forecast totals (inches) 11/11/2021.
Tomer forecast video 11/11/2021.

Lingering NW Flow 11/10

The primary storm system exits Colorado on Wednesday. Behind this storm system the mid-level atmospheric wind shifts and blows from the northwest. Right now this looks like a minor northwest flow 11/11/-11/12 through Idaho, Wyoming, at times northern Utah, and the Central and Northern Mountains of Colorado.

Water vapor satellite 11/10/2021 5am.

In the Pacific Northwest, a storm system delivers moderate precipitation with rising snow levels.

Rain/Snow Line11/1011/1111/12
Freezing level forecast 11/10/2021 6am.

Here’s my snow forecast into this weekend.

Mid-Mountain (Inches)11/1011/1111/1211/13
Jackson Hole121
Copper Mountain12<1
Big Sky21
Tomer snow forecast 11/10/2021 6am.

Mountain weather update 11/9

Snow levels started high around 9,000ft at Tahoe and Mammoth but have now fallen to about 6,000ft. I’m forecasting 4-12 inches mid-mountain at the ski areas.

Snow falling at Mammoth Ski Area 6am 11/9/2021.

This storm system will then push rain/snow into Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado on Tuesday through Wednesday.

Radar 6am 11/9/2021.

Snow levels start high around 7,500ft in Utah and Colorado before falling to valley levels. Here are my forecast totals.

Mid-Mountain Totals11/9-1111/11-13
Park City8″
Jackson Hole7″6″
Big Sky3″3″
Winter Park6″2″
Marmot Basin<1″<1″
Tomer snow forecast 11/9/2021

A northwest flow develops behind the main storm system between 11/11-11/13. That’s why you see additional snow accumulation in Wyoming, parts of Montana and Idaho, and the Central and Northern Mountains of Colorado.

Mid-level wind flow (~18,000ft) and Northwest Wind Flow, GFS interpretation 11/9/2021.
Tomer forecast video 11/9/2021 11am.

Monday roundup 11/8

A minor cold front is sliding through Colorado. More importantly, a larger storm system is taking aim at CA and then UT, ID, WY, and CO. This is the storm system to watch for moderate to heavy snow totals.

Infrared satellite 11/8/2021 6am.

California gets the precipitation first. It starts tonight and continues on Tuesday. Snow levels initially start high around 9,000ft (cutting down on overall snow accumulation) then drops quickly to 6,000ft. There is a weak and brief atmospheric river contribution to this storm system.

Integrated Vapor Transport forecast 11/8/2021.

This storm system then pushes snow into Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, southern Montana, and Colorado.

As a bonus, behind this storm system the atmospheric flow shifts and becomes northwest favoring a residual snow pattern on the high peaks with some additional accumulations.

Here are my forecast accumulations:

Mid-Mountain Totals11/8-11/911/9-11/11
Jackson Hole5″7″
Park City9″
Berthoud Pass6″
Tomer snow forecast 11/8/2021 6am.

Mountain weather update 11/7: The week ahead

There are two storm systems lined-up for the West. The first storm is minor. The 2nd storm system is the one to watch for CA, UT, WY, and CO.

Water vapor satellite 11/7/2021 6am. Two storm systems.

The first storm system is already moving across the intermountain west with minor amounts of rain/snow depending on elevation. The 2nd storm system sitting over the Pacific will hit CA on 11/8-11/9 with a weak atmospheric river influence (see forecast chart below). Snow levels at Tahoe start high around 10,000ft then fall to 6,000ft as the storm progresses.

Forecast integrated vapor transport.

That storm system will then deliver colder air by 11/9/-11/10 and snow to parts of UT, WY, and CO. Click to enlarge my snow forecast:

Tomer snow forecast 11/7/2021 6am.

In Colorado, the best accumulations occur in the Central and Northern Mountain zones with less in Southern Colorado.

All the while, a steady stream of snowfall will continue in parts of the PNW including Whistler/Blackcomb high alpine.

Tomer forecast video 11/7/2021.