Tomer’s Take: I’m forecasting two storm systems through 4/8 plus a cut-off low riding the southern branch. This low could sit and spin for a couple days with snow for CO/NM.
Mammoth Mountain set their all-time snow record now at 702″ for the season at the Base.
Alta and the Wasatch continue to get pounded. They just broke the 800 inch mark for season. It’s an all-time record. I’ve got another two feet in my forecast through 4/8.
Season Totals
Alta, UT won the race to 800 inches.
Current Setup
Water vapor satellite shows two storm systems lined-up over the Pacific. Orange/red = drier air aloft.
Forecast Pattern
Forecast pattern on 4/8. Notice the cut-off low riding the southern branch. This could sit and spin for a couple days with snow for the CO/NM.
Tomer’s Take: A change in the forecast has occurred. Instead of three storm systems, I’m now seeing two storm systems through 4/8. This will decrease overall snowfall amounts. The biggest change is to CA’s forecast totals, which have decreased significantly.
Current Setup
Water vapor satellite shows three areas of low pressure but only two make the trip into the West.
Forecast Pattern
Forecast jet stream valid 4/8. Pattern has transitioned with high pressure ridging in the PNW and split jet flow.
Tomer’s Take: Choo choo! The snow train keeps running through 4/6 with deep snow bullseyes. Record breaking snow totals continue. Deep snow bullseyes in CA, WY, UT, CO, MT, OR, WA, ID.
Programming Note: I’ll have a full report on our transition to El Nino coming soon.
Current Setup
Water vapor satellite shows the storm system inbound to CA with a heavy slug of moisture. Two additional areas of low pressure are lurking in the Pacific.
Forecast Pattern
Forecast jet stream valid 4/6. Notice the area of low pressure sitting across the West Coast.
Tomer’s Take: I’m forecasting deep snow bullseyes through 4/5 with feet of accumulation in CA, UT, WY, CO, MT.
Colorado is pushing 700 inches in a few locations
-> 49.5 inches of snow-water-equivalent (SWE) as per Snotel on Buffalo Pass/Tower, CO (Northern Mountains @10620′). A rough conversion puts it around 700 inches of total snow accumulation for the season so far. Steamboat Ski Resort is reporting 416 inches at mid-mountain. For additional reference, I looked up the SWE on 3/27/2019 (the BIG year) and it was 49.8 inches.
-> 47.5 inches of SWE as per Snotel on Wolf Creek Pass (Southern Mountains @10957′). That’s roughly 665 inches of total snow accumulation for the season so far. On 3/27/2019 (the BIG year) the SWE was 45.8 inches.
-> 46.3 inches of SWE as per Snotel on Schofield Pass (West Elk Mountains @10653′). That’s roughly 648 inches of total snow accumulation for the season so far. On 3/27/2019 (the BIG year) the SWE was 44.0 inches.
Current Setup
Infrared satellite shows an active storm track with areas of low pressure lined-up through 4/5.
Forecast Pattern
Forecast jet stream valid 4/5.
Forecast Timing
Forecast radar/satellite valid 3/27-4/1.
Kirkwood, CA
The next storm cycle will push many Tahoe resorts over 700 inches into all-time record territory.
Tomer’s Take: Three storm systems lined-up through 4/3 with a continuation of deep snow bullseyes breaking all-time snow records. Heavy snow in CA, UT, WY, MT, CO.
25″/24 hours at Alta pushing them to 749 inches for the season. Alta should break 800 inches. 749 inches breaks their all-time season snow record of 748 inches.
10″/24 hours at Snowmass. Aspen Highlands is headed towards 400 inches for the season.
Record Breakers:
Utah’s snowpack (SWE) is off the charts
Look at the black line (current season) going off the chart! This year’s statewide Utah snowpack is now officially the greatest on record in terms of snow-water-equivalent (SWE) currently at 26.4″ (old record 26″ set in 1983). Other notable years are 1982 and 2011.
Colorado’s San Juan snowpack also a record breaker
CO’s San Juan Basin is currently the greatest on record in terms of snow-water-equivalent (SWE), but it’s still chasing the all-time record SWE of 32 inches set in 1993. Look at the black line (current season) going off the chart! It’s currently at 30.4 inches of SWE (a record breaker). Other notable years include 2005 and 2019.
With snow in the forecast it’s plausible we break the 1993 record.
California’s snowpack (SWE) currently in #2 position
Snow-water-equivalent (SWE) records continue to inch closer to the #1 spot held by 2010-2011 as indicated at the UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab. I’m forecasting about three feet of new snow by 4/3 (see forecast charts further down).
Pure snow accumulation records are already being set (or will be very soon). Mammoth and Bear Valley, are two examples.
Forecast Pattern
Forecast jet stream valid 4/3. Notice the deep trough supporting the third storm system of the period. This translates into heavy mountain snow.
Tomer’s Take: Active storm track through 3/31 with three storm systems and feet of grand total accumulation in CA, UT, WY, CO, MT.
Big Bear Mountain Resort in Southern CA is reporting 24 inches in 24 hours.
Alta is reporting another 8 inches overnight. They’ve officially cracked 700 inches! Now at 704″ for the season so far.
Mammoth Mountain is reporting 836 inches at the summit so far this season. They’re just a few inches away from breaking their all-time season record at the Base.
Current Setup
Water vapor satellite shows all three storm systems lined-up through 3/31.
Forecast Pattern
Forecast jet stream valid 3/31. Notice the area of low pressure sliding through the Southern Rockies.
Forecast Timing
Forecast radar/satellite valid 3/22-3/27.
Crested Butte, CO
3/22: 8″
3/23: 2″
3/24: 2″
3/25: 1″
3/26: 1″
3/29: 1″
3/30: 5″
3/31: 2″
Forecast Totals
3/22-3/24:
3/25-3/31:
3/23-3/31:
NH/VT/ME Key Snow Dates: 3/25-3/26. (Rain on 3/23).
