Tomer’s Take: Afternoon update with new data below. Heaviest snow in Colorado falls above 6,000ft and Divide-East with some exceptions.

My forecast video PM 4/24:

Mount Tukuhnikivatz

By request, my weekend forecast for Mount Tukuhnikivatz:
4/28: Dry, sunny, windy, gusts to 55mph, daily freezing level max/min: 11700’/10900′.
4/29: Dry, sunny, less wind, gusts to 20mph, 13500’/11800′.
4/30: Dry, sunny, less wind, gusts to 20mph, 14100’/13100′.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 5/3. Main feature is a low off the CA coast. Otherwise the flow is light and disorganzied.

Forecast Totals

4/24-4/26:

The Colorado numbers are high-end and worst-case assuming the storm system comes together perfectly. Most places will end up with less.

4/27-5/3:

2nd storm system hits Colorado 4/26-4/27. It’s a fast mover.

Tomer’s Take: A storm systems tracks through WY/UT and into CO/NM 4/25-4/26. It develops into an ABQ low pressure. This is a wetter storm systems with promise of deep upslope favoring the Front Range, Foothills, Palmer Divide, Colorado Springs, Pikes Peak, Wet Mountains, and Southern Colorado. In the Mountains, this setup favors the Divide-East with less precipitation west of the Divide.

A second fast-moving cold front hits WY and CO 4/27-4/28 with additional snow accumulation.

Forecast Freezing Level

Colorado’s Central Mountain Zone, Daily Max/Min:

4/24: 11200’/8500′

4/25: 10000’/7700′

4/26: 10200’/7000′

4/27: 12000’/9200′

Wasatch, Daily Max/Min:

4/24: 9400’/7200′

4/25: 7700’/5900′

4/26: 11000’/9400′

4/27: 12000’/10300′

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 5/3. Notice the area of low pressure in CA.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 4/23-4/28.

Forecast Totals

4/24-4/26:

4/27-5/3:

Tomer’s Take: I’m forecasting three storm systems through 4/29 before high pressure takes control.

My forecast video 4/21:

Wind Forecast

Quandary Peak, CO, Maximum Summit Gust:

4/21: 50mph

4/22: 25mph

4/23: 30mph

4/24: 30mph

Longs Peak, CO, Maximum Summit Gust:

4/21:60mph

4/22: 15mph

4/23: 25mph

4/24: 30mph

Mount Superior, UT, Maximum Summit Gust:

4/21: 35mph, 4-8″

4/22: 25mph, 1-2″

4/23: 15mph

4/24: 20mph, 4-8″

Forecast Freezing Level

Wasatch, Daily Max/Min Levels:

4/21: 7700’/6400′

4/22: 7400’/6400′

4/23: 10200’/8000′

4/24: 10000’/9000′

Colorado’s Central Mountain Zone, Daily Max/Min Levels:

4/21: 7500’/5400′

4/22: 8900’/6600′

4/23: 10900’/8000′

4/24: 10300’/9200′

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream pattern 4/30. Notice the dip in the jet over WY, UT, CO, NM 4/28-4/30. The large ridge to the West will move in after this area of low pressure slides East.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 4/21-4/26.

Forecast Totals

4/21-4/23:

4/24-4/30:

Tomer’s Take: Snow accumulation continues across PNW/BC/MT/ID/WY/UT/CO. Two additional storm systems will push season totals further into all-time record territory.

Projected Melt-Out

50th Percentile Projection:

Schofield Pass, CO: June 20 (Dust layer could accelerate)

Red Mountain Pass, CO: June 12 (Dust layer could accelerate)

Forecast Freezing Level

Wasatch, Maximum/Minimum:

4/20: 6100’/5100′

4/21: 7700’/6600′

4/22: 7700’/6600′

4/23: 10500’/8900′

4/24: 9800’/9500′

4/25: 7700’/6400′

Colorado’s Central Mountain Zone, Maximum /Minimum:

4/20: 6100’/3800′

4/21: 8000’/5300′

4/22: 9400’/7100′

4/23: 11000’/8700′

4/24: 10700’/9200′

4/25: 10000’/8200′

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 4/29. Small high pressure ridging over Intermountain West with an area of low pressure off the West Coast.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 4/20-4/25.

Forecast Totals

4/20-4/22:

4/23-4/29:

Tomer’s Take: I’m forecasting three different storm systems through 4/28 for the PNW/BC/ID/MT/WY/ID/CO/UT.

Alta, UT is reporting 5″ new snow in the last 24 hours. Season total is 885″. Will they make it to 900″ by May 1? Yes

My forecast video 4/19:

Forecast Freezing Level

Wasatch, Maximum Daily Height:

4/19: 5700′

4/20: 6200′

4/21: 7700′

4/22: 7900′

4/23: 10500′

4/24: 10000′

Colorado’s Central Mountain Zone, Maximum Daily Height:

4/19: 8900′

4/20: 6400′

4/21: 8000′

4/22: 9500′

4/23: 11300′

4/24: 11300′

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 4/28. Mixed flow with some strong ridging but also a potential cut-off low off the California coast.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 4/19-4/24:

Forecast Totals

4/19-4/21:

4/22-4/28:

Most of the CO snow accumulation occurs 4/25-4/26.

Tomer’s Take: I’m forecasting four different storm systems for parts of the West through 4/28.

Forecast Freezing Levels

Wasatch, Maximum height of daily freezing level:

4/18: 7500′

4/19: 6100′

4/20: 6400′

4/21: 8000′

4/22: 9800′

4/23: 10100′

Colorado’s Central Mountain Zone, Maximum height of daily freezing level:

4/18: 11900′

4/19: 8400′

4/20: 6600′

4/21: 8000′

4/22: 10100′

4/23: 11900′

Projected Melt-Out Dates

Bear Lake, RMNP, CO: June 10

Berthoud Pass Summit: June 14

Columbine Pass: June 1

Echo Lake: May 31

High Lonesome: June 15

Independence Pass: May 29

Jones Pass: June 4

Loveland Basin: June 16

Molas Lake: June 5

Rabbit Ears: June 5

Wild Basin: June 6

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 4/27. You can see the final storm system of the cycle 4/27-4/28 sliding through the Intermountain West. Notice the high pressure ridge across the West Coast/PNW.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite 4/18-4/23.

Alta, UT

4/18: 6″

4/20: 1″

4/21: 1″

4/22: 1″

4/23: 3″

4/24: 3

Forecast Totals

4/18-4/20:

4/21-4/27:

Tomer’s Take: 3-4 storm systems are lined-up for the West through 4/28. Brief high pressure may develop April 28-May 1.

Will Alta, UT hit 900″ by May 1? Yes, it appears likely.

Will Aspen Highlands, CO hit 450″ by May 1? 50/50 odds.

Will Jackson Hole, WY hit 600″ by May 1? Yes, it appears likely.

Will Wolf Creek Ski Area, CO hit 500″ by May 1? Yes, it appears likely.

Forecast Freezing Level

Wasatch, Maximum Height. This means, the freezing level rises to a maximum level during daytime heating then could re-freeze overnight.

4/17: 11200′

4/18: 7200′

4/19: 6100′

4/20: 6100′

4/21: 7100′

4/22: 8200′

Colorado’s Central Mountain Zone, Maximum Height:

4/17: 12300′

4/18: 11700′

4/19: 8200′

4/20: 6700′

4/21: 6700′

4/22: 8400′

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 4/26. Notice the dip and area of low pressure sliding through the West.

May 1

If high pressure develops across the Intermountain West then it is brief April 28-May 1. It’s followed by lower atmospheric pressure anomalies in the mid-atmosphere by May 2 building over the West Coast.

Below is forecast mid-atmospheric pressure anomalies valid May 1.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 4/17-4/22:

Forecast Totals

4/17-4/19:

4/20-4/26:

Tomer’s Take: Active northern jet branch has three additional storm systems lined-up for parts of the West. As mentioned yesterday, Alta, UT could reach 900″. Jackson Hole, WY should easily reach 600″ for the season. High pressure might build for May 1.

My forecast video 4/16:

Forecast Freezing Level

Wasatch, Maximum Height:

4/16: 11300′

4/17: 11200′

4/18: 7900′

4/19: 6400′

4/20: 6600′

4/21: 6200′

Colorado’s Central Mountain Zone, Maximum Height:

4/16: 11200′

4/17: 12300′

4/18: 12100′

4/19: 10900′

4/20: 8400′

4/21: 6600′

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 4/16-4/21.

Forecast Totals

4/16-4/18:

4/19-4/25:

Tomer’s Take: The pattern is NOT done with the West. I’m forecasting three additional storm systems through 4/24 and about 20 inches of grand total snow at Alta, UT.

My forecast video 4/15:

Aspen Highlands, CO

Aspenweather.net has a great App run by Ryan Boudreau and meteorologist Cory Gates. They’re reporting almost 450 inches of season snow at Aspen Highlands so far. The next storm cycle could push them cleanly to 450 inches.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite 4/15-4/20.

Forecast Totals

4/15-4/17:

4/18-4/24: