Category: Trail Running

Where’s the Monsoon?

Tomer’s Take: We’re still waiting on the arrival the Seasonal Monsoon. It remains blocked by a high pressure dome and strong Subtropical Jet Stream. This jet is also generating strong wind on many high peaks across the West. Data suggest a possible Monsoon arrival after 7/20, but confidence is low. Normally, Monsoon Season runs July […]

Monsoon Update & 4th of July Mountain Forecast

Tomer’s Take: Monsoon Season normally runs July-August across the Rockies. I’m forecasting a late start. Data suggest it might not start until after 7/10. A large dome of high pressure is currently blocking the flow. But, even without Monsoon moisture, afternoon thunderstorms are still possible over higher terrain from daytime heating and fronts racing through. […]

Pattern through July 1; Monsoon Season Preview

Tomer’s Take: The pattern is transitioning across the West. The abnormally wet pattern is moving out while more normal, warmer weather is moving in. This will introduce a drier period for the West until Monsoon Season kicks in. My opinion is that Monsoon Season will start about 1-2 weeks behind schedule. Normal Monsoon Season runs […]

Weekend Mountain Weather, Snow for PNW, July 1 Forecast

Tomer’s Take: An abnormally wet June continues through this weekend across parts of the West with widespread afternoon rain/thunderstorms. A large trough moves into the PNW 6/17-6/21 with high wind and snow for the high Cascades and Volcanoes. Looking down the road, drier weather moves into the West late June through early July with a […]

El Nino is here: What to expect across the West

Tomer’s Take: El Nino has arrived. The triple-dip La Nina is over. Bottom line, El Nino is here through Winter 2024. The La Nina for a generation The 2022-2023 La Nina delivered big time to CA, UT, and CO. In fact, it overdelivered. It overperformed in ways not seen in historical records. It was a […]

Rain totals last 30 days; What’s next?

Tomer’s Take: Parts of Colorado are soaked after record rainfall totals over the last 30 days. Some places are pushing a foot of rainfall. The pattern stays wetter than normal through June 15 then returns to a “normal” precipitation pattern after June 15 through June 30. Denver Front Range Accumulated precipitation May 1 – June […]

Update: Wet June Forecast

Tomer’s Take: May and now June are wetter than normal across parts of the West. I’m forecasting wetter than normal conditions through June 15 then the pattern gradually returns to ‘normal’ precipitation late June. The effects are more pronounced June 20-30 just before the seasonal Monsoon. Precipitation Last 30 Days Percentage of average valid 5/5-6/3: […]

Update: June Looks Wet

Tomer’s Take: I’m forecasting above normal early to mid June precipitation for most of the West with a powerful Subtropical Jet Stream. But, what above mid to late June? Data points to drier air for a few states including CO, WY, NM, AZ. Rich Flow with Subtropical Jet Valid 6/10: This is not normal for […]

June Looks Wet

Tomer’s Take: I’m forecasting a wetter than normal start to June across the Intermountain West. Why? Extra moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean will flood the atmosphere. The door is wide open at all key atmospheric levels. Precipitable water anomalies run 100-300% of normal. This extra moisture fuels widespread afternoon rain and […]

Weekend Mountain Weather update; Early June Looking Wet

Tomer’s Take: Forecast freezing levels stay elevated. This forces the snowpack to continue melting across the West. I’m also forecasting afternoon thunderstorms almost every single day across the Intermountain West with a rich feed of moisture. Early June could be wetter than normal. 11:30am view from Vail looking East/Northeast across the Gore Range. Snow continues […]