Category: La Nina

Tomer’s Take: Pattern transition underway for the West. Currently a weak low is sliding south from the PNW to CA. It’s headed to NM and southern CO as a southern track low through 11/14. This low opens the door for a large trough to develop across the Intermountain West (MT, WY, CO) with a stiff […]

Tomer’s Take: Pattern is now in transition. A low slides down the West Coast but it weakens and dries up with only light mountain snow accumulation. This low becomes a weak southern track low that slides through the southern tier of the Rockies through 11/14. Behind it the pattern changes quickly to a high pressure […]

Tomer’s Take: The final storm in the storm cycle is exiting CO/WY. What’s next? High pressure rebuilds briefly then a large, drier, colder trough develops across the West. This results in only light snow accumulations 11/10-11/17. Current Setup Infrared satellite shows the final storm system departing CO/WY and new storm systems upstream. The line-up looks […]

Tomer’s Take: The final storm system of this storm cycle is currently tracking through UT, WY, CO through 11/10. What’s next? Storm cycle ends 11/10. High pressure rebuilds then a large trough of low pressure sets up shop across the West through 11/16. But, this trough is much drier and colder. There is a southern […]

Tomer’s Take: Final storm system of this storm cycle now moving through California. Next stop is the Intermountain West. Powerful jet streak, orographics, and very weak atmospheric river (AR) contribution. Storm cycle ends 11/10. What happens after? High pressure rebuilds until 11/13 then a dry trough rotates through the West. Current Setup Infrared satellite shows […]

Tomer’s Take: A powerful low pressure and jet stream deliver feet of snow to the West 11/7-11/10. Forcing ingredients include a 150mph jet stream/streak, strong orographics, and weak atmospheric river (AR) contribution. Peak snowfall times by mountain range are listed below. Current Setup Infrared satellite shows the moisture channel, storm track, and low pressure systems […]

Tomer’s Take: Snow continues to fall across the Intermountain West with a WNW flow and powerful jet stream. This is associate with storm #2. Storm #3 is riding the heels of storm #2. Storm #3 delivers the best orographics and possible weak atmospheric river contributions to the Sierra and Interior Mountain West. Period of maximum […]

Tomer’s Take: Storm #2 is currently generating snow and strong wind in the PNW, ID, MT, WY, and UT. Storm #3 is riding the jet on the heels of storm #2. Overall, the atmospheric river (AR) intensity remains in question for the Sierra. It looks brief and weak. I decreased snow totals a notch in […]

Tomer’s Take: As storm #1 departs CO/NM, storm #2 and storm #3 are lined-up. Each could deliver brief atmospheric river (AR) contributions. Each could deliver proper orographics with big snow totals including the Sierra and interior Rockies. Current Setup Water vapor satellite shows the storm track and atmospheric river setup pointed directly at the PNW/BC. […]

Tomer’s Take: Three different storm systems likely through 11/10. Storm #1 is currently sliding through UT, AZ, NM, and CO. Storm #2 is part of an Atmospheric River (AR) that nails the PNW/BC then potentially the Sierra. Storm #3 follows a similar track to Storm #2 and delivers another round of heavy snow to the […]