Tomer’s Take: Pattern change remains on-track 10/22-10/24. A second low pressure system possible 10/26-10/28. Beneficiaries: PNW, BC, Banff, MT, ID, CO, WY, UT. Strong wind gusts likely 40-95mph 10/22-10/25. Current Setup Water vapor satellite shows the big Western high pressure ridge and cut-off low pressure. This is called a Rex Block. What can change this? […]
Category: Hiking/Mountaineering
10/18 update: First big mountain snow of the season
Tomer’s Take: Weekend mountain snow remains on track. Timeline: 10/22-10/24. Beneficiaries: PNW, Banff, ID, MT, WY, UT, CO. Strong wind likely 40-85mph across the high peaks of UT, WY, CO. Air temps drop 10-25 degrees. Current Setup Water vapor satellite shows the parade of low pressure systems that will gradually erode/dislodge the large high pressure […]
First big mountain snow of the season
Tomer’s Take: The first significant mountain snow of the season is possible 10/22-10/24. Beneficiaries: PNW, Banff, MT, ID, UT, WY, CO. Air temps will run 10-20 degrees below normal. The jet stream delivers strong wind (40-80mph) to the higher peaks of UT, WY, MT and CO between 10/22-10/24. I’ll drill-down on this in future updates […]
When will it snow, part 2
Tomer’s Take: Pattern change remains possible on/after 10/23 across the West. Beneficiaries: CO, UT, WY, ID, MT, PNW, Banff. Lower atmospheric pressures replace high pressure ridge. Snow and colder temps = net result. If this verifies it would be the first significant snowfall of the season for much of the Intermountain West. Current Setup Infrared […]
When will it snow?
Tomer’s Take: A large Western ridge of high pressure remains in control through 10/22. A pattern change is possible on/after 10/23. A large dip in the jet stream and lower atmospheric pressures might replace the large Western high pressure ridge. This pattern change might run 10/23-10/27. Net result: snow and colder temps for UT, CO, […]
Golden days of October
Tomer’s take: High pressure remains in control of the West. Mid-atmosphere pressure readings are running 2-3 standard deviations above (higher) the 20-year average. This pattern mirrors the Fall of 2021-2022. When will this change? Some data suggests 10/23. Current Setup Infrared satellite shows the large ridge of high pressure sitting over the Pacific/PNW/West. Crystal clear […]
The snow that wasn’t
Tomer’s Take: Significant snow in Colorado appeared likely based on data a few days ago. Now, that possibility has vanished. Why? It goes to what I talked about in my Winter Forecast: The North Pacific Heat Wave. This warmer than normal ocean water tends to anchor a large dome of high pressure over the PNW/West […]
High mountain snow likely in Colorado this weekend
Tomer’s Take: A series of cold fronts deliver colder air and snow accumulation above treeline Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in Colorado. Below treeline precipitation stays rain. Snow accumulation is possible in all mountain zones above treeline. Some of the biggest totals might occur in the San Juan Mountains. Air temps in the mountains will gradually […]
Gates & Boudreau: Winter Outlook 2022-2023
Tomer’s Take: Meteorologist Cory Gates and Ryan Boudreau released their official Winter Outlook 2022-2023 with heavy focus on Aspen/Snowmass. I featured their outlook last winter and it was incredibly accurate for the Aspen Zone. You can follow and subscribe to their weather updates on Aspenweather.net. I released my Winter Outlook last week. Here’s the full […]
October snow forecast; Fall color update
Tomer’s Take: Two active periods for mountain snow are possible regulated by a ridge of high pressure. Two active periods slightly favor Western Slope zones for higher totals. Best accumulation will occur at higher elevations with melting in-between. Peak Fall color in Colorado is running behind schedule in some mountain zones. My full Winter Forecast […]