Golden days of October

Tomer’s take:

  • High pressure remains in control of the West.
  • Mid-atmosphere pressure readings are running 2-3 standard deviations above (higher) the 20-year average.
  • This pattern mirrors the Fall of 2021-2022.
  • When will this change? Some data suggests 10/23.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the large ridge of high pressure sitting over the Pacific/PNW/West.

Infrared satellite 6am 10/10/2022.

Crystal clear over Vail Mountain this morning 10/10. Expect another 1-2 weeks of this pattern:

Vail Mountain live cam 6am 10/10/2022.

Windy Front 10/11

The only fly in the ointment is a windy, dry cold front on 10/11 in the Mountains of Colorado. Forecast maximum gusts:

Max Gusts10/11
Longs60mph
Quandary50mph
Crestone Peak60mph
Yale45mph
Forecast wind gusts summit-level valid 10/11/2022.

Golden Days Pattern

Most of the active weather is routed into Alaska and parts of Canada. Abnormally warm and dry weather continues across the West.

This pattern mirrors the Fall of 2021-2022.

Mid-atmosphere pressure pattern 10/10/2022, Meteorologist Chris Tomer.

Snowmaking has started at Copper Mountain, A-Basin, Loveland Valley, and Keystone. Cold, clear, dry nights are good for snowmaking.

Late October Change?

Some data suggests lower atmospheric pressures move on/around 10/23.

Forecast mid-atmosphere pressure anomalies valid 10/23/2022.

2 thoughts on “Golden days of October”

  1. Matt B

    Chris – Love the site. When I read 2-3 sigma above 20 year averages, I get concerned about not only this season but next. What could break the high pressure ridge in the Pacific? Given climate changes, does the La Niña goes for 4 next year?

    1. christomer Post author

      All going points, Matt. It looks like a few lows will break the high on/around 10/22. As for La Nina, a fourth consecutive season is unprecedented. The latest data suggest a transition away from La Nina to Neutral during Winter 2023. Chris

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