First big mountain snow of the season

Tomer’s Take:

  • The first significant mountain snow of the season is possible 10/22-10/24.
  • Beneficiaries: PNW, Banff, MT, ID, UT, WY, CO.
  • Air temps will run 10-20 degrees below normal.
  • The jet stream delivers strong wind (40-80mph) to the higher peaks of UT, WY, MT and CO between 10/22-10/24. I’ll drill-down on this in future updates this week.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the parade of low pressure systems lined-up. These will gradually break down/dislodge the big high pressure ridge by 10/22-10/24.

Water vapor satellite 5:45am 10/17/2022.

Pattern Change

Confidence has grown for a large pattern change 10/22-10/24. Below, notice the buckling jet stream across the West and negative mid-atmospheric pressure anomalies. Pressure anomalies would run about 2 standard deviations below the 20-year average.

This would support colder temperatures and mountain snowfall.

Forecast mid-atmosphere pressure anomalies valid 10/23/2022, EPS interpretation.

Forecast

Future radar and satellite valid 10/23 at 10:15am. Blue = snow, Green = rain, Pink = mix.

Forecast radar and satellite valid 10/23 at 10:15am.

Ballpark snow totals 10/17-10/24:

Ballpark forecast snow totals 10/17-10/24.

My full video forecast:

6 thoughts on “First big mountain snow of the season”

  1. Tim Cooney

    As usually, PNW gets the lions share, but a nice start for CO. Been a very nice, prolonged fall with great color in the aspen.

  2. cw

    Not fan of “if” part, but will welcome the natural snow and more importantly the much colder temps for corn-snow farming. Bring it!!

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