Category: Forecasting

Weekend snow forecast

Tomer’s Take: First of two low pressure systems now moving south through the PNW into MT, ID, WY, UT and eventually CO between 10/22-10/24. Bullseyes: Big and Little Cottonwood Canyons, Brian Head, Big Sky, Bridger Bowl, Discovery, Western and SW Colorado mountain zones. Strong 40-100mph wind gusts 10/22-10/24 across the higher peaks. 2nd low pressure […]

10/21 update: Weekend mountain snow

Tomer’s Take: Pattern change underway. High pressure becomes dislodged. Two low pressure systems lined-up: 10/22-10/24 and 10/26-10/28. Bullseyes: Utah’s Wasatch especially Little Cottonwood, Colorado’s Western/Southwest mountains including Crested Butte, Purgatory, Silverton and Wolf Creek, Montana’s Big Sky and Bridger Bowl. Current Setup The long-standing high pressure ridge becomes dislodged and replaced by both low pressure […]

Mountain snow this weekend

Tomer’s Take: Pattern change remains on-track 10/22-10/24. Possible 2nd storm system with snow 10/26-10/28. Beneficiaries: PNW, BC, Banff, MT, ID, WY, UT, CO. Strong wind gusts UT, CO, WY 40-90mph between 10/22-10/24. Current Setup The pattern change comes from the two large low pressure systems over the Pacific. They will dislodge the high pressure ridge […]

10/19 update: First big mountain snow of the season

Tomer’s Take: Pattern change remains on-track 10/22-10/24. A second low pressure system possible 10/26-10/28. Beneficiaries: PNW, BC, Banff, MT, ID, CO, WY, UT. Strong wind gusts likely 40-95mph 10/22-10/25. Current Setup Water vapor satellite shows the big Western high pressure ridge and cut-off low pressure. This is called a Rex Block. What can change this? […]

10/18 update: First big mountain snow of the season

Tomer’s Take: Weekend mountain snow remains on track. Timeline: 10/22-10/24. Beneficiaries: PNW, Banff, ID, MT, WY, UT, CO. Strong wind likely 40-85mph across the high peaks of UT, WY, CO. Air temps drop 10-25 degrees. Current Setup Water vapor satellite shows the parade of low pressure systems that will gradually erode/dislodge the large high pressure […]

First big mountain snow of the season

Tomer’s Take: The first significant mountain snow of the season is possible 10/22-10/24. Beneficiaries: PNW, Banff, MT, ID, UT, WY, CO. Air temps will run 10-20 degrees below normal. The jet stream delivers strong wind (40-80mph) to the higher peaks of UT, WY, MT and CO between 10/22-10/24. I’ll drill-down on this in future updates […]

When will it snow, part 2

Tomer’s Take: Pattern change remains possible on/after 10/23 across the West. Beneficiaries: CO, UT, WY, ID, MT, PNW, Banff. Lower atmospheric pressures replace high pressure ridge. Snow and colder temps = net result. If this verifies it would be the first significant snowfall of the season for much of the Intermountain West. Current Setup Infrared […]

When will it snow?

Tomer’s Take: A large Western ridge of high pressure remains in control through 10/22. A pattern change is possible on/after 10/23. A large dip in the jet stream and lower atmospheric pressures might replace the large Western high pressure ridge. This pattern change might run 10/23-10/27. Net result: snow and colder temps for UT, CO, […]

Golden days of October

Tomer’s take: High pressure remains in control of the West. Mid-atmosphere pressure readings are running 2-3 standard deviations above (higher) the 20-year average. This pattern mirrors the Fall of 2021-2022. When will this change? Some data suggests 10/23. Current Setup Infrared satellite shows the large ridge of high pressure sitting over the Pacific/PNW/West. Crystal clear […]

The snow that wasn’t

Tomer’s Take: Significant snow in Colorado appeared likely based on data a few days ago. Now, that possibility has vanished. Why? It goes to what I talked about in my Winter Forecast: The North Pacific Heat Wave. This warmer than normal ocean water tends to anchor a large dome of high pressure over the PNW/West […]