10/21 update: Weekend mountain snow

Tomer’s Take:

  • Pattern change underway. High pressure becomes dislodged.
  • Two low pressure systems lined-up: 10/22-10/24 and 10/26-10/28.
  • Bullseyes: Utah’s Wasatch especially Little Cottonwood, Colorado’s Western/Southwest mountains including Crested Butte, Purgatory, Silverton and Wolf Creek, Montana’s Big Sky and Bridger Bowl.

Current Setup

The long-standing high pressure ridge becomes dislodged and replaced by both low pressure systems 10/22-10/28.

Water vapor satellite shows the setup. Storm #2 is currently cut-off but will eventually be reabsorbed by the Polar Jet. Orange/red = drier air aloft.

What is a cut-off low? It’s simply not attached to the main jet stream flow. It’s spinning alone.

Water vapor satellite 6am 10/21/2022.

Storm #2 Pattern

Forecast mid-atmosphere pressure anomalies show the potential for a second trough 10/26-10/28.

Forecast mid-atmosphere pressure anomalies valid 10/27/2022, EPS interpretation.

Forecast Wind Gusts

Grand TetonMPH
10/2155
10/2255
10/2335
10/2440
Kings PeakMPH
10/2135
10/2265
10/2345
10/2430
Forecast wind gusts valid 3:15pm Sunday 10/23/2022.

Forecast Snow

Forecast radar/satellite valid 9pm Saturday 10/22.

Forecast radar/satellite valid 9pm Saturday 10/22.

Forecast radar/satellite valid 6am Sunday 10/23.

Forecast radar/satellite valid 6am Sunday 10/23.

Forecast radar/satellite valid 9pm Sunday 10/23.

Forecast radar/satellite valid 9pm Sunday 10/23.

Forecast snow totals between 10/21-10/24.

Forecast snow totals between 10/21-10/24.

Forecast snow totals between 10/26-10/28.

Forecast snow totals between 10/26-10/28.

My forecast video:

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