Tomer’s Take: Moderate snow accumulation hits Tahoe & Mammoth tonight into early 2/18. A wave of light snow accumulation overspreads UT/WY/CO on 2/18. A major storm system delivers 1-2 feet of accumulation in the Sierra 2/19-2/20. This same storm system then hits the Wasatch with 1-2 feet (or more) 2/19-2/21, and Colorado’s Central & Northern Mountain Zones with 6-12 inches 2/21-2/22.

On/after 2/25 the Northern Branch gets involved and significant snow is possible.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows three different areas of low pressure. The 2nd storm system is associated with the primary trough in the atmosphere. This is the 2/19-2/22 storm system.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

2/25-2/28: Dynamic period with Northern Branch involvement. Significant snow is likely with this setup and colder air.

Tomer’s Take: It’s a powder Friday and a powder weekend with additional snow accumulation likely in ID/UT/WY/CO. A trough of low pressure approaching the West Coast is sending ripples of energy into the Intermountain West generating snow accumulation.

Snow Timeline

Wasatch 4-6″ Today, 4-6″ 2/18.

Tetons 4-5″ Today, 3-5″ 2/18.

Colorado 2-8″ Today/Tonight, 1-2″ 2/18.

Northeast Light Snow 2/17, 2/18.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the approaching trough sending ripples of energy into the Intermountain West generating snow accumulation.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Northeast:

Snow: Light 2/17, 2/18.

Tomer’s Take: The Teton snow bullseye continues next 48 hours with another 12-14 inches. That’ll be three feet in three days. I’m forecasting 6-8 inches today (2/15) across the Wasatch. In Colorado, I’m forecasting 4-8 inches across the Central and Northern Mountain zones 2/15-2/16.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellte shows the current storm system generating snow in UT/WY/CO/ID.

The larger trough of low pressure over the Pacific will move at snails pace sending ripples of energy into the Intermountain West through 2/22.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Northeast:

Snow: PM 2/15-2/16.

Tomer’s Take: Storm systems hit the West Coast through 2/23 and pieces break off and hit UT/ID/MT/UT/CO. There are a few snow bullseyes including the Tetons, Sierra, NW Colorado, and Wasatch with feet of grand total accumulation.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Jackson Hole is reporting 16″ in 24 hours. I’m forecasting another 2 feet (at least) through 2/23.

Snow Timeline

Tetons: Now-2/16, 2/18-2/20.

Sierra: PM 2/14 – AM 2/15, 2/17 – AM 2/18, 2/19-2/20.

NW CO: PM 2/14-2/16, PM 2/18, 2/21.

Wasatch: 2/15, 2/18, 2/19-2/21.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a few different storm systems lined-up for the West.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand totals 2/14-2/23.

Northeast:

Snow: PM 2/15 – AM 2/16, 2/23.

Tomer’s Take: The pattern favors two distinct snow bullseyes through 2/22: Sierra & Tetons with feet of grand total accumulation.

Overall, it’s a pattern dominated by storm systems hitting the West Coast then weakening and sending pieces of energy/precip into the Intermountain West.

My afternoon forecast update video:

Snow Timeline

Tetons: Now-2/16, 2/18-2/20.

Wasatch: 2/14 (light), 2/15, 2/18, 2/20, 2/22.

Colorado C+N Zones: 2/14 – AM 2/17, 2/18-2/19, 2/20, 2/22.

Sierra: PM 2/14 – AM 2/15, 2/17 – AM 2/18, PM 2/18-2/19.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows four different storm systems over the Pacific.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Atmospheric River

Forecast Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) valid near the San Francisco coast (38N/123W) shows low-level/weak atmospheric river (AR) contribution with each storm system.

Forecast Jet Stream

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Tomer’s Take: The pattern 2/12-2/15 favors PNW/BC/ID/MT/WY. Then the stormtrack shifts south 2/16-2/22 to favor CA/OR/UT/ID/WY/CO. The overlap between both periods is the Teton Range, WY where I’m forecasting 2-3 feet of grand total accumulation. Overall, the pattern continues trending weaker for most locations. What once looked like a major initial storm system 2/15-2/17 now looks weak/fast/ragged.

In the Northeast, the 2/13 storm system continues shifting south, and that pulls snow accumulation out of VT/NH/ME.

Next storm system arrives late 2/15-2/16.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a trio of storm systems traversing the North Pacific.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Teton snow: 2/13 – AM 2/16, 2/18-2/20.

Wasatch snow: 2/15, 2/18-2/19.

CO Snow C+N Zones: PM 2/15-2/16, 2/18, 2/20.

Sierra snow: PM 2/14 – AM 2/15, 2/17-2/19.

VT/NH/ME snow: Late 2/15-2/16.

Tomer’s Take: The stormtrack now favors the PNW/BC/ID/MT/WY through 2/15. Then it shifts south 2/16-2/21 to favor CA/UT/ID/WY/CO. The initial storm system is trending weaker/faster, but additional waves of moisture get pushed through the interior Rockies by a strong Subtropical jet.

The Northeast gets moderate to heavy snow 2/13 and 2/16. 2/13 stormtrack is trending a little further south.

My afternoon forecast update video:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a trio of storm systems over the North Pacific. The first two affect the PNW/BC/Northern Tier, and the third is part of the pattern shift after 2/15.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Teton snow: 2/13-2/15, 2/18, 2/20.

UT snow: 2/15-2/16, 2/18, 2/20-2/21.

CO snow: PM 2/15-2/16, 2/18, 2/21.

Northeast:

2/13 storm system mainly delivers snow to southern VT, southern NH, southern NY, southern ME, MA.

Late 2/15-2/16 delivers snow to most of VT/NH/ME.

Tomer’s Take: The final storm system of this impressive storm cycle concludes in CO/NM 2/10 with moderate to snow accumulation. Then the pattern shifts north 2/11-2/15 to favor PNW/BC/Northern Tier. Then it shifts back to the south 2/16-2/20 to favor CA/UT/WY/ID/CO/NM with heavy snow potential and a rich Pacific flow via strong Subtropical jet (atmospheric river a possibility).

Snow Timeline:

CA: 2/17-2/19.

WY: PM 2/12 – AM 2/13, PM 2/14-2/19.

CO: 2/10, 2/17-2/19.

UT: PM 2/15-2/19.

I skied Monarch Mountain on 2/9 and it was excellent. Cold with 6-8 inches of powder in the morning then the sun broke through in the afternoon.

My forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the final storm system sliding through CO/NM 2/10.

A few different areas of energy are lined-up in the Northern Pacific waiting to ride the jet into the PNW/BC/Northern Tier 2/11-2/15.

Orange/red = Drier air aloft.

White/Blue/Green = Moisture aloft.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Bulk of UT/CO snow is 2/17-2/19.

VT/NH/ME:

Snow: 2/13, 2/16.

Tomer’s Take: Storm cycle continues until 2/10. CA’s big storm system is finally making its move into the Intermountain West. Snowfall increases in UT and CO afternoon 2/6-2/9, snow continues in WY 2/6-2/9. A smaller, weaker storm system races through PNW/BC/Northern Tier 2/11-2/12 with light snow accumulation. Drier pattern 2/13-2/17.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor shows the large CA storm system finally making its move into the Intermountain West.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Broad trough and storm system moving through Intermountain West. Two smaller pieces of energy get absorbed keeping the snow going through 2/9.

Trough and storm system moving through UT/CO/WY/NM and then exiting 2/10.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals