Tomer’s Take: A storm system with light to moderate snow accumulation continues 1/25-1/26 ID/UT/WY/CO/NM. Then high pressure builds over WY/UT/CO/NM 1/27-1/31 with abnormally warm temps. The PNW rain/snow line increases from 5k to 8k (or higher). The pattern turns more active the first week of February with a large trough and powerful Subtropical jet.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Radar shows energy diving SSE through ID/UT/NV/WY/CO/NM.

Forecast Rain/Snow Line

Mount Baker, WA (Min/Max):

1/25: 3900’/4500′

1/26: 5700’/6500′

1/27: 7000’/8000′

1/28: 7000’/9000′

1/29: 7500’/8000′

Mount Bachelor, OR:

1/25: 4500’/5500′.

1/26: 8000/8700′.

1/27: 8200’/8700′.

1/28: 9000’/10000′.

1/29: 9000’/10000′.

Forecast Jet Stream

Storm system departs CO/NM 1/26. Then ridge of high pressure builds into UT/ID/WY/CO/NM 1/27-1/31.

First Week of February

Strong Subtropical jet stream escorting a couple different storm systems. Trend is to push the stormtrack further south.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

VT/NH/ME:

Rain/Snow 1/26, Light Snow 1/27, Moderate Snow PM 1/28-1/29, Moderate Snow 2/2.

Tomer’s Take: A storm system delivers snow to UT/WY/ID/MT/CO/NM 1/25-1/26. Then brief high pressure builds over UT/WY/CO/NM 1/27-1/31 with warm, dry conditions. During this time, precipitation continues hitting the West Coast/PNW with a high rain/snow line. Then the flood gates might open the first week of February with a powerful Subtropical jet stream and deep trough of low pressure.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Utah: Year To Date Snowfall. One year ago Alta was at 436 inches.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the next storm system that hits UT/WY/ID/MT/CO/NM 1/25-1/26.

The 2nd area of low pressure spins north and becomes part of the early February pattern shift.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Trough with storm system sliding through UT/WY/ID/MT/CO/NM.

Brief high pressure ridge over UT/WY/CO/NM.

First Week of February

Large trough of low pressure and strong Subtropical jet stream with heavy overrunning rain/snow.

Valid 2/3/2024. Forecast atmospheric pressure anomalies at about 18,000ft. Notice the large trough moving into the West.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Northeast:

Rain on 1/25-1/26.

Storms to watch with snow: 1/28-1/29, 2/1.

Tomer’s Take: A Pacific storm system hits CA on 1/24 then moves into UT/WY/ID/MT/CO/NM 1/25-1/26 with light to moderate snow accumulation. Then a brief high pressure ridge builds over UT/WY/CO/NM 1/27-1/31 with the storm track favoring the West Coast/PNW. The pattern turns more active after 2/1.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a southern track low and a Pacific storm system. The Pacific storm system hits CA on 1/24 then UT/ID/MT/WY/CO/NM 1/25-1/26.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Storm drops into the trough 1/24-1/26.

Brief high pressure ridging WY/UT/CO/NM 1/27-1/31.

Strong Subtropical jet blows moisture into CA/West Coast and probably overruns UT/ID/WY/CO.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Tomer’s Take: Snow continues in the Sierra this morning then drier this afternoon until the next storm system 1/24. This storm system then moves into UT/ID/MT/WY/CO/NM 1/24-1/26 with light to moderate snow accumulation. A warmer, drier period with high pressure builds over the Intermountain West 1/27-1/31.

My forecast update video:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the current storm system hitting the West Coast. It splits and becomes a southern track storm system.

The 2nd storm system in the Pacific becomes the 1/24-1/26 UT/WY/MT/ID/CO/NM area of low pressure.

Forecast Jet Stream

Trough with southern track storm system sliding through the Four Corners.

2nd storm system and trough moving through UT/ID/MT/WY/CO/NM.

High pressure ridging over the Intermountain Rockies. Subtropical jet reloads for early Februray.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Tomer’s Take: A new Pacific pattern engages 1/19-1/28 with warmer air temps, higher snow levels, heavy West Coast/PNW precipitation, and a couple southern track storm systems. The next wave of snow hits the Wasatch, Tetons and mountains of Colorado 1/20-1/22 with light to moderate snow accumulation. CA gets moderate to heavy snow above 7500′ late 1/19-1/22.

My afternoon mountain weather forecast update video:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a strong Subtropical jet ushering in a few different storm systems to the West Coast/PNW.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Radar shows where the precipitation is falling in the PNW/West Coast.

Forecast Jet Stream

New Pacific pattern engages with strong Subtropical jet.

Two storm systems take a southern track. Notice the trough over the 4-Corners.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Snow Timeline

Wasatch: Light to moderate PM 1/20 through early 1/22, Light 1/23.

Teton: Light to moderate 1/20-1/21, Light 1/23-1/24.

Colorado’s Mountains: Light 1/21-1/22.

Sierra: Moderate to heavy above 7500′ late 1/19-1/22.

Forecast Totals

Northeast:

VT/NH/ME Snow: Light to moderate PM 1/23-1/24, moderate to heavy 1/25-1/27.

Tomer’s Take: Lingering light snow in WY & CO on 1/18. Then a new warmer Pacific pattern engages the West 1/19-1/27. Air temps will be warmer, and a strong Subtropical jet will deliver 1-2 southern track areas of low pressure.

Snow levels in CA start at 7500′ late 1/19 then increase to 8000′ late 1/23.

My forecast update video:

It’s a powder day in the Tetons! Jackson Hole is reporting 11 inches in 24 hours.

It’s also a powder day at Vail with 9 inches in 24 hours.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the departing storm system and new Pacific pattern engaging.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Strong Subtropical jet comes roaring into the West Coast with warmer air and waves of precipitation.

Southern track low 1/21-1/22 & 1/23-1/24. Colder Canadian air remains locked away.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand totals 1/18-1/27.

UT/WY/CO Snow chance: 1/20-1/21.

Northeast:

Possible moderate to heavy snow 1/24-1/27.

Tomer’s Take: Snow continues early 1/18 in UT & WY and through midday in CO. Then the pattern shifts 1/19-1/26 to a warmer Pacific pattern with a strong Subtropical jet.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

A storm system riding a WNW Flow continues in CO/WY/ID/MT/WA/BC.

Notice the large trough sitting over the Pacific. That is our next pattern for the West.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Radar at 2:35pm: Snow following WNW Flow.

Forecast Jet Stream

WNW Flow gradually exits moving East.

New warmer Pacific pattern engages 1/19-1/26. Strong Subtropical jet blows in waves of precipitation.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand Totals remainder of 1/17 through 1/26.

Additional snowfall remainder of 1/17 through 1/18.

Tomer’s Take: The next storm system and WNW Flow remains on-track for 1/17-1/18 delivering moderate to heavy snow in BC/WA/ID/MT/WY/UT/CO.

Looking down the road, a warmer Pacific flow pattern takes shape 1/19-1/25.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Season Totals

Crystal clear and cold in Vail, CO this morning after 3-4 feet of new snow in the last 7 days!

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the next storm system and developing WNW Flow approaching the PNW/BC.

The larger area of low pressure and trough over the West Pacific is part of the warmer Pacific flow 1/19-1/25.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Storm system + WNW Flow delivers moderate to heavy snow to BC/WA/ID/MT/UT/WY/CO 1/17-1/18.

Warmer Pacific flow pattern and strong Subtropical Jet. Expect waves of precipitation through the Interior Rockies. Higher snow levels.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand Totals 1/16-1/25.

Northeast:

Moderate snow 1/16, Light snow 1/18, Moderate snow 1/24-1/25.

Tomer’s Take: Grand totals hit 86 inches with this storm cycle (Over 6″SWE, Alta, UT, Buffalo Pass, CO). What’s next? A storm system and efficient WNW Flow delivers moderate to heavy snow accumulation to BC/WA/ID/MT/WY/UT/CO 1/17-1/18.

Beyond this, a warmer Pacific flow pattern takes over 1/19-1/24.

My afternoon forecast video:

Forecast Jet Stream

Storm system + WNW Flow.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand Totals 1/15-1/24.

Warmer Pacific flow pattern with strong subtropical jet and waves of moisture with higher snow levels.

Tomer’s Take: A reinforcing cold front drops south through Tetons tonight and into UT/CO by 1/15. Snow starts back up in the Tetons and continues in WY & CO with additional accumulation into 1/15.

The next storm system and WNW Flow arrives 1/17-1/18 with moderate to heavy snow potential in British Columbia/WA/ID/MT/WY/UT/CO.

A new Pacific pattern engages 1/19-1/23 with warmer air and moisture across the West.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the main Arctic front over CO/UT and the reinforcing 2nd cold front sliding south from MT into WY.

Busy setup in the Pacific with a large trough. A piece of that breaks off and becomes part of the 1/17-1/18 storm system

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Storm system + WNW Flow generates moderate to heavy snow accumulation BC/WA/ID/MT/WY/UT/CO.

New pattern with rich, warm Pacific flow and strong jet. Trough moves through Interior Rockies.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand totals 1/14-1/23.

Northeast:

Snow 1/14 (light), 1/16 (light), 1/19-1/20 (light).