Tomer’s Take: Transition to Spring is now in full swing. There’s still a little snow in the extended forecast between 5/2-5/5.

Loveland Ski Area is reporting 5 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours. Beautiful view this morning from the Divide! Air temps at 12k are around 10 degrees F this morning.

Forecast Wind Gusts

Quandary Peak, CO, Max Gusts:

4/28: 40mph

4/29: 35mph

4/30: 30mph

5/1: 30mph

Torreys Peak, CO:

4/28: 40mph

4/29: 35mph

4/30: 30mph

5/1: 30mph

Mount Superior, UT:

4/28: 25mph

4/29: 15mph

4/30: 15mph

5/1: 25mph

Forecast Freezing Level

Wasatch, Daily Max/Min:

4/28: 12800’/11000′

4/29: 13500’/12600′

4/30: 13800’/13300′

5/1: 13600’/12500′

Colorado’s Central Mountain Zone, Daily Max/Min:

4/28: 9800’/7200′

4/29: 13000’/10300′

4/30: 13300’/11500′

5/1: 14400’/12000′

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 4/28-5/3:

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 5/7. Notice the large area of low pressure off the West Coast.

Forecast Totals

4/28-5/7:

Timeline:

CO: 5/4-5/5

UT: 5/4-5/5

WY: 5/4-5/5

CA: 5/2-5/4

Tomer’s Take: A fast-moving storm system will race through Colorado late on 4/27 lingering into early 4/28. Then high pressure builds into the Intermountain West through 5/6.

Forecast Wind Gusts

Quandary Peak, CO:

4/27: 45mph

4/28: 40mph

4/29: 35mph

4/30: 30mph

Mount Bierstadt, CO

4/27: 50mph

4/28: 40mph

4/29: 35mph

4/30: 35mph

Mount Superior, UT:

4/27: 40mph

4/28: 35mph

4/29: 15mph

4/30: 15mph

Grand Teton, WY:

4/27: 50mph

4/28: 25mph

4/29: 20mph

4/30: 20mph

Forecast Freezing Level

Wasatch, Daily Max/Min:

4/27: 10800’/10200′

4/28: 12800’/10700′

4/29: 13500’/12600′

4/30: 13900’/13500′

Colorado’s Central Mountain Zone:

4/27: 11700’/8400′

4/28: 9500’/7000′

4/29: 13000’/10300′

4/30: 13500’/11300′

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 4/27-5/2:

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 5/6. High pressure over the Intermountain West with an area of low pressure nearly stalled off the CA Coast.

Forecast Totals

4/27-4/29:

4/30-5/6:

Tomer’s Take: A fast-moving storm system drops south from Canada through MT, WY, CO, and NM on 4/27. Then high pressure builds in until 5/4 when another storm system arrives.

Forecast Freezing Level

Wasatch, Daily Max/Min:

4/26: 10300’/9400′

4/27: 10800’/9200′

4/28: 12500’/9400′

4/29: 13300’/12600′

Colorado’s Central Mountain Zone, Daily Max/Min:

4/26: 10300’/7000′

4/27: 11300’/7200′

4/28: 10000’/6900′

4/29: 12800’/10300′

Wind Gust Forecast

Quandary Peak, CO:

4/26: 25mph

4/27: 45mph

4/28: 40mph

4/29: 30mph

Torrey’s Peak, CO:

4/26: 25mph

4/27: 50mph

4/28: 40mph

4/29: 30mph

Mount Superior, UT:

4/26: 15mph

4/27: 40mph

4/28: 40mph

4/29: 15mph

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 4/26-5/1.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 5/5. Jet supports and area of low pressure sliding through UT/WY/CO. It looks like a slow mover.

Forecast Totals

4/26-4/28:

Most of this accumulation occurs on 4/27.

4/29-5/5:

Most of this accumulation occurs 5/4-5/6.

Tomer’s Take: Forecast track of juicy low has shifted south a few miles. That will shift the heaviest snow totals south. Looking at about a foot of snow above 6,000ft for areas Divide-East, Foothills, Palmer Divide, Pikes Peak district, Wet Mountains, South Park, Southern CO.

2nd fast-moving storm system drops north to south on 4/27 into early 4/28.

Alta, UT: 901″

7″ in 24 hours pushes Alta, UT to an unprecedented 901 inch season total. That’s 75 FEET!

Forecast Freezing Level

Wasatch, Daily Max/Min:

4/25: 7400’/5700′

4/26: 10700’/9400′

4/27: 10800’/9200′

4/28: 11800’/8500′

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 4/25-4/30:

Forecast Totals

Terrain view looking West through Denver to the Foothills and Divide.

4/25-4/27:

4/28-5/3:

2nd Storm System is a fast mover N-S from MT, WY, CO, 4/27-4/28 (mostly 4/27).

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 5/3. Main feature is a meandering low off the CA Coast.

Tomer’s Take: Afternoon update with new data below. Heaviest snow in Colorado falls above 6,000ft and Divide-East with some exceptions.

My forecast video PM 4/24:

Mount Tukuhnikivatz

By request, my weekend forecast for Mount Tukuhnikivatz:
4/28: Dry, sunny, windy, gusts to 55mph, daily freezing level max/min: 11700’/10900′.
4/29: Dry, sunny, less wind, gusts to 20mph, 13500’/11800′.
4/30: Dry, sunny, less wind, gusts to 20mph, 14100’/13100′.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 5/3. Main feature is a low off the CA coast. Otherwise the flow is light and disorganzied.

Forecast Totals

4/24-4/26:

The Colorado numbers are high-end and worst-case assuming the storm system comes together perfectly. Most places will end up with less.

4/27-5/3:

2nd storm system hits Colorado 4/26-4/27. It’s a fast mover.

Tomer’s Take: A storm systems tracks through WY/UT and into CO/NM 4/25-4/26. It develops into an ABQ low pressure. This is a wetter storm systems with promise of deep upslope favoring the Front Range, Foothills, Palmer Divide, Colorado Springs, Pikes Peak, Wet Mountains, and Southern Colorado. In the Mountains, this setup favors the Divide-East with less precipitation west of the Divide.

A second fast-moving cold front hits WY and CO 4/27-4/28 with additional snow accumulation.

Forecast Freezing Level

Colorado’s Central Mountain Zone, Daily Max/Min:

4/24: 11200’/8500′

4/25: 10000’/7700′

4/26: 10200’/7000′

4/27: 12000’/9200′

Wasatch, Daily Max/Min:

4/24: 9400’/7200′

4/25: 7700’/5900′

4/26: 11000’/9400′

4/27: 12000’/10300′

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 5/3. Notice the area of low pressure in CA.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 4/23-4/28.

Forecast Totals

4/24-4/26:

4/27-5/3:

Tomer’s Take: I’m forecasting three storm systems through 4/29 before high pressure takes control.

My forecast video 4/21:

Wind Forecast

Quandary Peak, CO, Maximum Summit Gust:

4/21: 50mph

4/22: 25mph

4/23: 30mph

4/24: 30mph

Longs Peak, CO, Maximum Summit Gust:

4/21:60mph

4/22: 15mph

4/23: 25mph

4/24: 30mph

Mount Superior, UT, Maximum Summit Gust:

4/21: 35mph, 4-8″

4/22: 25mph, 1-2″

4/23: 15mph

4/24: 20mph, 4-8″

Forecast Freezing Level

Wasatch, Daily Max/Min Levels:

4/21: 7700’/6400′

4/22: 7400’/6400′

4/23: 10200’/8000′

4/24: 10000’/9000′

Colorado’s Central Mountain Zone, Daily Max/Min Levels:

4/21: 7500’/5400′

4/22: 8900’/6600′

4/23: 10900’/8000′

4/24: 10300’/9200′

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream pattern 4/30. Notice the dip in the jet over WY, UT, CO, NM 4/28-4/30. The large ridge to the West will move in after this area of low pressure slides East.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 4/21-4/26.

Forecast Totals

4/21-4/23:

4/24-4/30:

Tomer’s Take: Snow accumulation continues across PNW/BC/MT/ID/WY/UT/CO. Two additional storm systems will push season totals further into all-time record territory.

Projected Melt-Out

50th Percentile Projection:

Schofield Pass, CO: June 20 (Dust layer could accelerate)

Red Mountain Pass, CO: June 12 (Dust layer could accelerate)

Forecast Freezing Level

Wasatch, Maximum/Minimum:

4/20: 6100’/5100′

4/21: 7700’/6600′

4/22: 7700’/6600′

4/23: 10500’/8900′

4/24: 9800’/9500′

4/25: 7700’/6400′

Colorado’s Central Mountain Zone, Maximum /Minimum:

4/20: 6100’/3800′

4/21: 8000’/5300′

4/22: 9400’/7100′

4/23: 11000’/8700′

4/24: 10700’/9200′

4/25: 10000’/8200′

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 4/29. Small high pressure ridging over Intermountain West with an area of low pressure off the West Coast.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 4/20-4/25.

Forecast Totals

4/20-4/22:

4/23-4/29:

Tomer’s Take: I’m forecasting three different storm systems through 4/28 for the PNW/BC/ID/MT/WY/ID/CO/UT.

Alta, UT is reporting 5″ new snow in the last 24 hours. Season total is 885″. Will they make it to 900″ by May 1? Yes

My forecast video 4/19:

Forecast Freezing Level

Wasatch, Maximum Daily Height:

4/19: 5700′

4/20: 6200′

4/21: 7700′

4/22: 7900′

4/23: 10500′

4/24: 10000′

Colorado’s Central Mountain Zone, Maximum Daily Height:

4/19: 8900′

4/20: 6400′

4/21: 8000′

4/22: 9500′

4/23: 11300′

4/24: 11300′

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 4/28. Mixed flow with some strong ridging but also a potential cut-off low off the California coast.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 4/19-4/24:

Forecast Totals

4/19-4/21:

4/22-4/28:

Most of the CO snow accumulation occurs 4/25-4/26.