Tomer’s Take: The atmospheric river (AR) continues through 1/11 with the biggest impacts in CA, WA, OR. A moderate intensity AR surge occurs in CA 1/4-1/5. This storm impacts UT, WY, ID, CO on 1/5-1/6. There appears to be another moderate intensity AR surge for CA/West Coast on/around 1/10.
Brighton, UT is reporting 80 inches in the last 7 days.
Kirkwood, CA is reporting 74 inches in the last 7 days.
Alta, UT is reporting about 69 inches in the last 7 days.
Palisades Tahoe, CA is reporting 69 inches in the last 7 days.
Wolf Creek, CO is reporting 42 inches in the last 7 days.
Steamboat, CO is reporting 35 inches in the last 7 days.
Alta, UT has officially surpassed 300″ for the season so far.
The morning view at Palisades Tahoe before the next AR surge on 1/4-1/5.
My forecast video 1/2:
Infrared satellite shows the Pineapple Express flow with areas of low pressure lined-up. The big low in the northern Pacific (north of HI) hits CA/West Coast 1/4-1/5 with moderate level AR intensity.
Forecast jet stream valid 1/11. The flow continues to favor CA, WA, OR for biggest AR impact. The jet is choppy for the interior Rockies with less snow accumulation.
The long term forecast for AR is below from the GEFS model. You’re looking at forecast IVT plumes/transport across latitudes. It includes two more moderate intensity surges for CA, WA, OR. These are represented by the brighter colors (yellows, oranges, reds). The first is 1/4-1/5. The second is on/around 1/10. The AR surges beyond 1/10 are not as robust but could still be weak intensity AR surges. Bottom line, the above average precipitation continues for the West Coast beyond 1/10.
I worry about catastrophic flooding in the Northern California.
Tomer’s Take: 2023 features a continuation of the atmospheric river through 1/9. A moderate level intensity moisture surge occurs on 1/4-1/5 in CA, OR, WA. The jet becomes choppy through UT, WY, and CO on/after 1/4 with some ridge stress cutting down on snow totals.
My forecast video 1/1:
Infrared satellite shows the Pineapple Express and low pressure systems lined-up. The big low in the north Pacific hits the west coast 1/4-1/5.
Forecast jet stream valid 1/10. Notice how choppy the jet becomes with some ridge stress through UT, WY, CO.
Tomer’s Take: The atmospheric river (AR) continues through 1/9, but the storm systems weaken 1/3-1/9 once they move into UT, CO, NM. Snow levels remain elevated in the Sierra because of this warm, moist AR. They’re also elevated on 12/31 in the Wasatch with rain reported at the base of Park City. Snow levels should gradually fall on Sunday 1/1 at Park City as slightly colder air filters in.
My forecast video 12/31:
Steamboat received 8 inches in the last 24 hours. That puts them at 188″ for the season. It’s their snowiest December in a decade. And more snow is on the way through 1/9.
Infrared satellite shows the rich flow of moisture and areas of low pressure lined-up.
Forecast jet pattern valid 1/9. Notice the pattern turns more amplified with well-defined troughs of low pressure. This places more ridging stress on the Intermountain West with weaker shots of snow 1/3-1/9 through UT, CO, NM.
Forecast radar/satellite valid 12/31-1/4.
Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 12/31-1/2.
Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/3-1/9.
Forecast grand totals 12/31-1/9. Central and Northern Mountains of Colorado:
Tomer’s Take: The atmospheric river now looks to continue through 1/8. Feet of additional snow accumulation likely in CA, UT, WY, CO. But, the 2nd period appears to generate less snow for UT than previous updates.
My forecast video 12/30:
Infrared satellite shows the Pineapple Express and parade of low pressure systems lined-up through 1/8.
Forecast jet stream valid 1/8. The west-to-east orientation continues to act like a conveyor belt for moisture transport into the Western United States.
Per request, here’s what I see for the Moab-Grand Canyon area January 1-7, 2022.
100% Rain, 47/38, Gusty
100% Mix, 40/33, Gusty
90% Mix, 38/32
50% Snow, 31/25
30% Snow, 34/29
90% Snow, 29/23
20% Snow, 34/26
30% Snow, 30/20
30% Snow, 35/26
40% Snow, 33/20
30% Snow, 36/29
30% Snow, 33/22
20% Snow, 34/27
20% Snow, 34/21
Forecast radar/satellite valid 12/30-1/3.
Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 12/30-1/1.
Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/2-1/8. The Wasatch totals for this period have decreased. A storm system on 1/5-1/6 is weaker after departing CA. And, a storm system on 1/7-1/8 also appears weaker after departing CA.