Update: Big Totals 2/1-2/9 Measured In Feet

Tomer’s Take: Snow continues with storm #1 tonight through 2/4 across the Intermountain West. A Panhandle Hooker storm system develops in Colorado on 2/3 with enhanced snowfall. Storm #2 slams CA starting 2/4 with a moderate/strong intensity atmospheric river (AR) surge, 6 months worth of rain, and feet of Sierra snow accumulation. I’m forecasting grand totals measured in feet across the Sierra, Wasatch, Tetons, and W/SW Colorado. A third storm system races across British Columbia and the Northern Tier (& possibly UT/CO) 2/10-2/11 with light to moderate snow accumulation.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a busy Pacific. I marked the developing Panhandle Hooker storm system in SE CO/NM/Panhandle. Two other areas of low pressure converge in CA 2/4-2/5 with a moderate/strong AR surge.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Panhandle Hooker Developing

Radar shows the developing storm system and circulation near the panhandles of TX/OK. Storm matures on 2/3 with enhanced upslope over Denver, Foothills and Divide. Precipitation starts as rain or a mix in Denver then goes to snow afternoon/night of 2/3. All snow above 6,000ft with significant accumulation.

Old Man Winter Rally 2/4

Event takes place in Lyons, CO on 2/4.

Note: Inbound storm system likely all snow above 6,000ft with mix below.

2/2: Increasing clouds, light rain or rain/snow mix 10pm, gusts under 15mph, 35F.

2/3: AM rain showers or rain/snow mix, PM mix to all snow with 2-4 inches, gusts under 15mph, 34/37F.

2/4: Turning drier, turning sunny, wind gusts under 15mph, 30/40F.

Forecast Atmospheric River

Forecast Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) for Central/South CA coast 36.5N/122W valid next 7 days. Notice the moderate to strong AR surge with storm #2.

Forecast Jet Stream

Storm #2 with deep trough moving into the interior Rockies from CA.

Storm #3 follows jet and delivers light to moderate snow accumulation to BC and Northern Tier and possibly CO/UT.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand Totals by 2/9.

Storm #1 (storm #2 hits CA starting 2/4)

Storm #2.

Storm #3.

Big Totals 2/1-2/8 Measured In Feet

Tomer’s Take: Heavy snow continues in the Sierra with storm #1. This storm then moves into UT/WY/ID/MT/CO/NM through 2/4. A Panhandle Hooker storm system develops near the TX/OK panhandles on 2/3. This storm system enhances snowfall totals across parts of CO and NM. Storm #2 delivers a moderate intensity atmospheric river (AR) surge to CA 2/4-2/5. This storm then moves into UT/ID/WY/MT/CO through 2/8. Big grand totals likely measured in feet in CA/UT/WY/CO.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows three different storm systems lined-up in the Pacific riding a powerful Subtropical jet stream.

Red/orange = drier air aloft.

Old Man Winter Rally 2/4

Event takes place in Lyons, CO on 2/4.

2/2: Increasing clouds, rain to snow after 10pm, gusts under 15mph, 37/46F.

2/3: 2-4 inches (mixing with rain), gusts under 15mph, 34/38F.

2/4: Turning drier, wind gusts under 15mph, 32/40F.

Forecast Atmospheric River (AR)

Forecast Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) valid for the South/Central CA coast. Notice the moderate AR surge with storm #2 on 2/4-2/5.

Forecast precipitable water content valid 2/3-2/4. The atmospheric river surge/plume is obvious.

This could result in eight inches of rain in Los Angeles 2/4-2/5.

Forecast Jet Stream

Storm #1 moves into UT/WY/CO/ID/MT/NM.

Storm #2 and trough sliding out of CA into UT/ID/WY/CO/NM.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand Total snow by 2/10.

Bulk of snow timeline:

UT: 2/2

CO: 2/2-2/3

WY: Late 2/2 – AM 2/4

Bulk of snow timeline:

UT: 2/5-2/7.

CO: 2/6-2/9.

WY: 2/5-2/7.

Totals Trending Up in CA/CO/UT 2/1-2/9, Three Bullseyes, Panhandle Hooker

Tomer’s Take: Grand totals are trending up in UT, CA, and CO with two different storm systems 2/1-2/9. I’m forecasting three grand total bullseyes in the Sierra, Wasatch, and Southwest CO. Both storm systems deliver a moderate intensity surge of Atmospheric River (AR) moisture to CA. Storm #1 hits now through 2/4, and storm #2 hits 2/5-2/9. On 2/3, a Panhandle Hooker storm system develops around the TX/OK Panhandle and forces snow (or rain/snow) development in Denver, Foothills, and Mountains. The intensity and track of this storm system dictates how much accumulation occurs at Loveland, A-Basin, Summit County, Winter Park, Keystone, and Eldora.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Old Man Winter Rally 2/4

Event takes place in Lyons, CO on 2/4.

2/2: Increasing clouds, gusts under 15mph, 35/44F.

2/3: 3-6 inches (mixing with rain), gusts under 15mph, 33/39F.

2/4: 1 inch snow until 9am then drier, wind gusts under 15mph, 32/37F.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows both storm systems lined-up and escorted by a strong Subtropical jet.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Central/Northern CA radar shows heavy precipitation inbound. Snow hits Tahoe and Mammoth tonight into 2/1 above 7,000ft.

Forecast Atmospheric River

Forecast Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) for the Central/Northern CA Coast at 38N/123W. Notice two moderate intensity AR surges.

Forecast Jet Stream

Storm #1 riding strong Subtropical jet 2/1-2/4.

Storm #2 with broad trough 2/5-2/9.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand Totals: Storm #1 + Storm #2.

Totals are trending up in the Wasatch, CA, and CO.

Three bullseyes: Sierra, Wasatch, Southwest Colorado.

Storm #1.

Storm #2.

Update: First Week of February, Atmospheric River, Panhandle Hooker

Tomer’s Take: Two different storm systems remain on track 2/1-2/8. Storm #1 (2/1-2/4) delivers a moderate intensity atmospheric river (AR) surge, widespread heavy interior Rockies snow accumulation, and a Panhandle Hooker storm system for Colorado on 2/3. Storm #2 (2/5-2/8) delivers a weak AR surge and moderate to heavy interior Rockies snow accumulation.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Old Man Winter Rally 2/4

Event takes place in Lyons, CO on 2/4.

2/2: Increasing clouds, Rain to snow after 10pm, gusts under 15mph, 34/40F.

2/3: 3-6 inches, gusts under 15mph, 32/34F.

2/4: Drier, cloudy, 29/38F.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows both storm systems lined-up in the Pacific riding a powerful Subtropical jet stream.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Freezing Level

Forecast rain/snow line (daily min/max):

Sierra, CA:

1/31: Falling from 10,000′ to 7,400′.

2/1: Falling from 7000′ to 3600′.

2/2: 2300/5600′.

2/3: 5100/6200′.

2/4: 5600/7200′.

Wasatch, UT:

2/1: 7900/9400′.

2/2: 5600/7100′.

2/3: 3900/5200′.

2/4: 5900/6700′.

Forecast Atmospheric River

Forecast Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) showing two AR surges.

Forecast Jet Stream

Storm #1 arrives with powerful Subtropical jet stream.

Storm #2. Notice the trough moving west to east through UT/AZ/NM/CO.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand Totals: Storm #1 + Storm #2.

Storm #1.

Storm #2.

First Week of February, Atmospheric River, Panhandle Hooker

Tomer’s Take: Two different storm systems are lined-up 2/1-2/8 both riding a powerful Subtropical jet. Storm #1 (2/1-2/4) delivers a moderate intensity atmospheric river surge, widespread snow across the interior Rockies, and possible panhandle hooker storm system for Colorado (on 2/3). Storm #2 (2/5-2/8) could be strong for CA, then moves into the interior Rockies with another round of snow accumulation.

In the interim, abnormally warm temps continue with high freezing levels: 6-9K PNW/BC, 8-11K UT/CO.

My afternoon forecast update video:

Old Man Winter Rally 2/4

Event takes place in Lyons, CO on 2/4.

2/2: PM Rain to snow (1 inch late), gusts under 15mph, 38/41F.

2/3: 3-6 inches, gusts under 15mph, 32/35F.

2/4: AM flurries then drier, 29/36F.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the rich feed of moisture directed into the PNW/BC and large trough waiting in the North Pacific. This trough breaks loose and rides a powerful Subtropical jet into the West 2/1-2/8.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Atmospheric River

Forecast Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) valid next 10 days for C/N CA Coast, 38N/123W. Notice the moderate intensity AR surge PM 1/31-2/1 with storm #1 and 2nd possible weak surge 2/5-2/6 with storm #2.

Forecast Jet Stream

Storm #1 arrives in CA with a powerful Subtropical jet then moves into the interior Rockies.

Deep trough off CA coast with Storm #2. Rapid intensification.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand Totals 2/1-2/7: Storm #1 + Storm 2.

Storm #1. Watching for a Panhandle Hooker storm system in Colorado on 2/3.

Storm #2.

Northeast:

Light snow 2/1-2/2.

The Week Ahead; Pattern First Week of February

Tomer’s Take: Most places will feel the heat this week with abnormally warm Pacific air flooding the West. Snow levels jump significantly. Freezing levels run 6-9K in the PNW/BC and 8-11K in UT/CO. The first week of February still looks active with two different storm systems and progressively colder air. Widespread heavy snow accumulation possible.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a rich flow (Green Arrows) directed into the PNW/BC with high freezing levels through 1/31.

The big trough in the Pacific follows a strong Subtropical jet stream into the West on/after 2/1.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Storm #1 rides a powerful Subtropical jet into CA then Intermountain West 2/1-2/5.

Storm #2 arrives 2/5-2/7.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Northeast:

VT/NH/ME: Light to moderate snow accumulation PM 1/28-1/29, light accumulation 2/1-2/2.

Pattern through early February

Tomer’s Take: Snow continues in Colorado and New Mexico 1/26 tapering-off this afternoon/tonight. Then a ridge of high pressure builds across UT/WY/CO/NM 1/27-1/31 with abnormally warm air temps and a higher freezing level. During this timeframe, a rich moisture flow hits the PNW/BC pushing freezing levels high. The first week of February looks active with a strong Subtropical jet stream and trough of low pressure.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Forecast Freezing Level

Revelstoke & Kicking Horse, BC (Min/Max):

1/26: 2800/3800′

1/27: 3400/5600′

1/28: 5100/6100′

1/29: 6400/7100′

1/30: 7200/8500′

Alta/Snowbird, UT (Max/Min):

1/26: 4300/5200′

1/27: 7500/8400′

1/28: 8900/9400′

1/29: 10300/11200′

1/30: 11500/11600′

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a shifting pattern. The bulk of moisture will now be directed into the PNW/BC through 1/31.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Ridge of high pressure UT/WY/CO/NM 1/27-1/31.

Pattern shifts and door swings wide open with rich moisture transport into the West.

Strong Subtropical jet stream transports areas of low pressure into the West.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

VT/NH/ME:

Rain/Snow 1/26, Snow 1/28-1/29, 2/1-2/2.

Snow 1/25-1/26; Pattern First Week of February

Tomer’s Take: A storm system with light to moderate snow accumulation continues 1/25-1/26 ID/UT/WY/CO/NM. Then high pressure builds over WY/UT/CO/NM 1/27-1/31 with abnormally warm temps. The PNW rain/snow line increases from 5k to 8k (or higher). The pattern turns more active the first week of February with a large trough and powerful Subtropical jet.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Radar shows energy diving SSE through ID/UT/NV/WY/CO/NM.

Forecast Rain/Snow Line

Mount Baker, WA (Min/Max):

1/25: 3900’/4500′

1/26: 5700’/6500′

1/27: 7000’/8000′

1/28: 7000’/9000′

1/29: 7500’/8000′

Mount Bachelor, OR:

1/25: 4500’/5500′.

1/26: 8000/8700′.

1/27: 8200’/8700′.

1/28: 9000’/10000′.

1/29: 9000’/10000′.

Forecast Jet Stream

Storm system departs CO/NM 1/26. Then ridge of high pressure builds into UT/ID/WY/CO/NM 1/27-1/31.

First Week of February

Strong Subtropical jet stream escorting a couple different storm systems. Trend is to push the stormtrack further south.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

VT/NH/ME:

Rain/Snow 1/26, Light Snow 1/27, Moderate Snow PM 1/28-1/29, Moderate Snow 2/2.

Storm system 1/25-1/26; First week of February looks interesting

Tomer’s Take: A storm system delivers snow to UT/WY/ID/MT/CO/NM 1/25-1/26. Then brief high pressure builds over UT/WY/CO/NM 1/27-1/31 with warm, dry conditions. During this time, precipitation continues hitting the West Coast/PNW with a high rain/snow line. Then the flood gates might open the first week of February with a powerful Subtropical jet stream and deep trough of low pressure.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Utah: Year To Date Snowfall. One year ago Alta was at 436 inches.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the next storm system that hits UT/WY/ID/MT/CO/NM 1/25-1/26.

The 2nd area of low pressure spins north and becomes part of the early February pattern shift.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Trough with storm system sliding through UT/WY/ID/MT/CO/NM.

Brief high pressure ridge over UT/WY/CO/NM.

First Week of February

Large trough of low pressure and strong Subtropical jet stream with heavy overrunning rain/snow.

Valid 2/3/2024. Forecast atmospheric pressure anomalies at about 18,000ft. Notice the large trough moving into the West.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Northeast:

Rain on 1/25-1/26.

Storms to watch with snow: 1/28-1/29, 2/1.

Snowfall next 9 days

Tomer’s Take: A Pacific storm system hits CA on 1/24 then moves into UT/WY/ID/MT/CO/NM 1/25-1/26 with light to moderate snow accumulation. Then a brief high pressure ridge builds over UT/WY/CO/NM 1/27-1/31 with the storm track favoring the West Coast/PNW. The pattern turns more active after 2/1.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a southern track low and a Pacific storm system. The Pacific storm system hits CA on 1/24 then UT/ID/MT/WY/CO/NM 1/25-1/26.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Storm drops into the trough 1/24-1/26.

Brief high pressure ridging WY/UT/CO/NM 1/27-1/31.

Strong Subtropical jet blows moisture into CA/West Coast and probably overruns UT/ID/WY/CO.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals