Tomer’s Take:

• There are no big storm cycles on the immediate horizon for the West.
• This week favors the Intermountain West including MT, WY, CO, NM. Total snowfall next 8 days is 10″ or less for all resorts in this grouping.
• Beyond 11/20, the PNW turns more active as high pressure slides east and a trough of low pressure replaces with a powerful jet stream. Details and graphic below.

Southern Track Low

Visible satellite shows the storm track, big high building into the PNW, a cold front racing south from Canada, and a southern track low headed for NM and southern CO.

November 13-22

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/14.

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/20. Notice the high pressure ridge sliding east opening the door for the low and powerful jet lurking over the Pacific.

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/22. Big pattern change here. Powerful jet knifing in with low pressure replacing the high pressure ridge. This would equate to wind, colder temps, and snowfall.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/13-11/18.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/13-11/15.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/16-11/20.

Tomer’s Take:

• Pattern transition underway for the West.
• Currently a weak low is sliding south from the PNW to CA. It’s headed to NM and southern CO as a southern track low through 11/14.
• This low opens the door for a large trough to develop across the Intermountain West (MT, WY, CO) with a stiff northerly flow from Canada through 11/19.
• The PNW/BC/West Coast gets a large ridge of high pressure through 11/19.
• What’s beyond 11/19? Data is mixed but the PNW could turn slightly more active.
• Bottom line: No big storm cycles on the horizon.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the storm track, weak low pressure in the PNW sliding south, a second low headed for AK/Canada, and a high pressure that will become the dominate feature for the PNW/West Coast through 11/19.

November 12-19

Forecast jet stream flow 11/14. Notice the weak low sliding south through CA with light snow accumulation. Behind it a large ridge of high pressure amplifies the jet stream. This in turn sends it south through MT, WY, CO with colder air and fast-moving cold fronts and light snow chances.

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/17. Big dip in the jet continues for MT, WY, CO.

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/19. PNW/BC/West Coast high pressure ridge remains strong.

Late November?

Below is one possible pattern valid 11/24/2022. It shows a slight preference for lower mid-atmosphere pressures in the PNW/BC. Higher pressures are possible for parts of the Intermountain West.

This would mean most of the snow/colder temps are in the PNW/BC.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/12-11/17.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/12-11/15.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/16-11/19.

My forecast video 11/12:

Tomer’s Take:

• Pattern is now in transition. A low slides down the West Coast but it weakens and dries up with only light mountain snow accumulation.
• This low becomes a weak southern track low that slides through the southern tier of the Rockies through 11/14. Behind it the pattern changes quickly to a high pressure ridge in the PNW/BC and large trough across the Intermountain West.
• This is a colder, drier pattern overall with only light snow accumulation.
• Bottom line: No big storm cycles on the short-term horizon.
• What about the end of November? Pattern appears to turn slightly more active for the West. This could last into early December. But, the overall signal is weak.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the first low moving through the PNW and headed south into CA. It will weaken as it moves with only light snow accumulation. It then becomes a weak southern track low.

The 2nd low pressure slides into AK/Canada.

Mid November Pattern

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/14 illustrates the PNW/West Coast high pressure ridge. You can also see the southern track low with some southern branch support, but overall it’s weak.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/17 shows a progressive west to east flow with larger high pressure ridging. Lack of amplification means no big storm systems.

What about late November?

Some data suggest a slightly more active pattern for the West and West Coast. This could last into early December. But, the overall signal is weak.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/11-11/16.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/11-11/15.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/16-11/18.

Tomer’s Take:

• The final storm in the storm cycle is exiting CO/WY.
• What’s next? High pressure rebuilds briefly then a large, drier, colder trough develops across the West.
• This results in only light snow accumulations 11/10-11/17.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the final storm system departing CO/WY and new storm systems upstream. The line-up looks impressive at first glance but it isn’t for the West. The lows are large but it illustrates the importance of other factors like source region, flow trajectory, moisture content, and orographics.

A few follow-up storm totals:

• Alta, UT: 32″
• Grand Targhee, WY: 18″
• Kirkwood, CA: 35″
• Mammoth, CA: 49-70″
• Brian Head, UT: 25″

Gorgeous morning view at Palisades Tahoe in the wake of a 39″ storm total.

Mid November Pattern

Brief high pressure rebuilds across the West then a large trough dominates driven by a southern track low. Behind this a northerly flow with a couple Canadian cold fronts take over.

Overall, the pattern is much drier than the previous storm cycle with only light snow accumulations 11/10-11/17.

The forecast jet stream flow below is a good representation for the period.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/10-11/15.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/10-11/14.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/15-11/17.

My complete forecast video 11/10:

Tomer’s Take:

• The final storm system of this storm cycle is currently tracking through UT, WY, CO through 11/10.
• What’s next? Storm cycle ends 11/10.
• High pressure rebuilds then a large trough of low pressure sets up shop across the West through 11/16.
• But, this trough is much drier and colder. There is a southern track low that might sneak through favoring CO/NM.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the final storm system of this storm cycle tracking through UT, WY, CO.

A few snow highlights from the last 48 hours.

• Alta: 22″ (24hr), 27″ (48hr)
• Solitude: 21″/22″
• Jackson Hole: 11″/16″
• Kirkwood: 14″/27″
• Palisades Tahoe: 18″/39″
• Mammoth: 32″/49″

Looking Ahead: November 11-16

What’s next after this storm cycle? = Brief high pressure followed by a large trough of low pressure that is drier and colder.

Below is the forecast jet stream flow valid 11/14/2022. This pattern does not support big, widespread snowfall. The only place(s) favored is CO/NM because of a southern track low that sneaks through.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/9-11/14.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/9-11/10.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/11-11/15.

The large trough of low pressure is drier and colder. The pattern does not support big, widespread snowfall. The only place(s) favored is/are CO/NM because of a southern track low that sneaks through.

My forecast video 11/9 with updated snow map (snow yet to fall):

Tomer’s Take:

• Final storm system of this storm cycle now moving through California. Next stop is the Intermountain West.
• Powerful jet streak, orographics, and very weak atmospheric river (AR) contribution.
• Storm cycle ends 11/10. What happens after? High pressure rebuilds until 11/13 then a dry trough rotates through the West.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the sprawling low pressure, trough, and powerful jet flow around the low.

November 9

By 11/9 the main trough, jet, and low pressure are moving East into CO and beyond. Heavy snow is likely in UT, WY. Moderate snow in CO and SW MT.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/8-11/13.

Below Zero CO High Peaks

Much colder air and strong wind are likely as this storm system slides north/through Colorado.

Longs Peak	MPH	F
11/9	45	25
11/10	65	-3

Quandary Peak	MPH	F
11/9	60	21
11/10	35	-13

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) between 11/8-11/10.

*My forecast totals for the Tetons are optimistic and high-end. It’s more likely they’re lower (around 15-18″) but let’s see what happens.

Forecast snow totals (inches) between 11/11-11/14.

Talk about a dry period post-storm cycle.

My forecast video 11/8:

Tomer’s Take:

• A powerful low pressure and jet stream deliver feet of snow to the West 11/7-11/10.
• Forcing ingredients include a 150mph jet stream/streak, strong orographics, and weak atmospheric river (AR) contribution.
• Peak snowfall times by mountain range are listed below.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the moisture channel, storm track, and low pressure systems lined-up.

Sierra Snowfall

Snow is underway in the Sierra. Peak snowfall:

• Afternoon 11/7 through morning 11/9.
• Widespread 30-40 inches grand totals.
• Rideline wind gusts 60mph+.

Snow is falling at Kirkwood, CA.

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/8. This is the day of peak snowfall for most of the Sierra.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/7-11/12.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) between 11/7-11/10.

Peak Snowfall Times:

• Sierra: PM 11/7 – AM 11/9.
• Tetons: 11/7 – AM 11/10. About 3-4″ each day.
• Wasatch: PM 11/8 – AM 11/10.
• Big Sky: 11/7 – 11/9.

My forecast video 11/7:

Tomer’s Take:

• Snow continues to fall across the Intermountain West with a WNW flow and powerful jet stream. This is associate with storm #2.
• Storm #3 is riding the heels of storm #2.
• Storm #3 delivers the best orographics and possible weak atmospheric river contributions to the Sierra and Interior Mountain West.
• Period of maximum snowfall for the Sierra: 11/6-11/8.
• Period of maximum snowfall for UT, WY, CO: 11/9-11/10.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the active storm track, atmospheric river (AR), and WNW jet flow.

Ski resorts in WY, UT, and CO are all reporting new snow courtesy storm #2, a powerful jet, and WNW flow.

November 6-10

Forecast jet stream flow shows the WNW flow, buckling jet, and strong orgographics.

Valid 11/6-11/10.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/6-11/11.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast total snowfall (inches) valid 11/6-11/8.

This is the period of maximum snowfall for the Sierra. I’ve settled on 40″ grand totals for the Sierra based on orographics and weak AR contributions.

Forecast total snowfall (inches) valid 11/9-11/10.

This is the period of maximum snowfall for UT, WY, and CO.

My forecast video 11/6:

Tomer’s Take:

• Storm #2 is currently generating snow and strong wind in the PNW, ID, MT, WY, and UT.
• Storm #3 is riding the jet on the heels of storm #2.
• Overall, the atmospheric river (AR) intensity remains in question for the Sierra. It looks brief and weak. I decreased snow totals a notch in CA.
• Snow totals still look big for the Interior Rockies.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and moisture funnel with associated Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT).

Snow is currently falling at Jackson Hole. This is from storm #2. Big totals are likely from the two storm combo with a break in the action in-between (on Sunday).

Brighton, UT is reporting new snow with more on the way.

Strong Wind

In Colorado, I’m forecasting a blend of snow showers shrouding the Central and Northern Mountains plus strong winds 50mph+.

Forecast: Strong wind + snow showers.

Longs Peak	MPH
11/5	75
11/6	40

Forecast: Strong wind + snow showers.

Quandary Peak	MPH
11/5	50
11/6	40

Forecast: Strong wind + snow showers.

Bierstadt	MPH
11/5	65
11/6	50

November 5-11

Forecast jet stream flow delivers strong wind and brief weak atmospheric river (AR) contributions to CA’s Sierra.

Valid 11/7.

Forecast jet stream 11/8.

This is a good pattern for Utah and Wyoming.

The intensity of the AR for the Sierra is still in question.

Forecast jet stream 11/9.

The low tracks north of Colorado. This is not optimal for big snow in Colorado. And, it will be windy.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/5-11/10.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/5-11/6.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/7-11/12.

Left: My AM update Sierra snow forecast.

Right: My PM update Sierra snow forecast.

My forecast video 11/5: Includes updated snow forecast numbers for the Sierra:

Tomer’s Take:

• As storm #1 departs CO/NM, storm #2 and storm #3 are lined-up.
• Each could deliver brief atmospheric river (AR) contributions.
• Each could deliver proper orographics with big snow totals including the Sierra and interior Rockies.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the storm track and atmospheric river setup pointed directly at the PNW/BC. This flow could shift south and nail (briefly) the Sierra and also generate heavy snow through the interior Rockies. Red/orange = drier air aloft.

AR Setup

Forecast jet stream flow shows the potential for heavy precipitation with proper orographics.

Valid 11/7/2022:

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/8/2022.

Forecast Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) for the Bay Area, CA. Weak to moderate AR potential.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar and satellite valid 11/4-11/9.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/4-11/5.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/6-11/11.

My forecast video 11/4: