Tomer’s Take: Three different storm systems are lined-up through 12/12 with big totals for most of the West.
Storm #1 rides a powerful SW to NE oriented jet stream. It targets specific locations in CO with heavy orographic snowfall. Big powder likely at Vail Pass, Wolf Creek, Purgatory, Crested Butte, Steamboat 12/5-12/8.
Unfortunately, for the second day in a row, I shaved my forecast totals for the Wasatch and Tetons 12/4-12/6.
Storm #2 + storm #3 look more significant for the Wasatch between 12/9-12/12.
My forecast video including snow plume for Vail Mountain/Vail Pass:
Tomer’s Take: One more storm system is lined-up for CA and the West before the pattern shifts after 12/8.
The remaining storm system is a little more ragged, a little weaker, and overall not as cold as storm #1.
There is an additional storm system in the flow but it appears to hit further north in the PNW and then wash-out as the pattern shifts.
The pattern shifts north after 12/8 favoring the PNW and northern tier of states through 12/12. Heavy snow accumulation likely.
Current Setup
Infrared satellite shows two storm systems lined-up. The first low delivers heavy snow accumulation to CA and the interior. The 2nd low hits further north and then might wash-out at the expense of a pattern shift.
Infrared satellite 8:30am 12/3/2022.
Pattern through 12/12
Forecast jet stream valid 12/4. Heavy snow is likely in the Sierra.
Forecast jet stream valid 12/4/2022.
Forecast jet stream valid 12/7. The CA low is sliding through the interior Rockies. It’s not as cold as its predecessor and the flow is more ragged.
Forecast jet stream valid 12/7/2022.
Forecast jet stream valid 12/12. The pattern has shifted north favoring the PNW, Banff, BC, and northern tier of states. This might setup a NW flow type pattern.
Tomer’s Take: Storm #1 continues to drop heavy snow accumulation and strong wind gusts. Storm #2 delivers heavy snow 12/3-12/7 in many of the same locations.
Overall, I decreased many of my forecast totals after observing how storm #1 unfolded. Some forecast totals in CO increase.
An additional storm system arrives 12/8-12/10.
Snow accumulation continues across WY, UT, CO. Overall totals were on-target in the Tetons but lighter than expected in the Wasatch. Totals in the Sierra were also lighter than expected where the sun is now out waiting on the next storm system. Colorado, is extremely windy with 100mph gusts hammering the snowpack.
The view at Loveland Ski Area with low visibility and blowing snow:
Loveland Ski Area.
The view from Mammoth Mountain, CA after about two feet of new snow.
Mammoth Mountain.
Current Setup
Infrared satellite shows storm #2 and storm #3 lined-up with a powerful jet stream.
Infrared satellite 9:50am 12/2/2022.
Forecast Pattern
Forecast jet stream valid 12/3/2022. Storm #2 is on the doorstep of CA.
Tomer’s Take: The first of two storm systems is currently hitting the Sierra then ID, MT, WY, UT, CO. Storm #2 hits the same areas 12/3-12/5 with heavy snow accumulation. Grand totals will be measured in feet.
Storm #1 delivers 40-80mph wind gusts to UT, WY, and CO.
Looking down the road, the jet flow remains active through 12/10.
Current Setup
Infrared satellite shows the big low hitting CA. Storm #2 is right on its heels over the Pacific.
Infrared satellite 9:55am 12/1/2022.
Forecast Pattern
Storm #1 + Storm #2 both follow a powerful stream combination.
Forecast jet stream valid 12/2.
Forecast jet stream valid 12/2/2022.
Forecast jet stream valid 12/7.
Forecast jet stream valid 12/7/2022.
Forecast jet stream valid 12/10. The flow remains active.
Forecast jet stream valid 12/10/2022.
Wind Gust Forecast: Storm #1
MPH
12/1
12/2
12/3
Capitol Peak
50
70
30
Longs Peak
60
60
45
Kings Peak
55
45
30
Wheeler Peak
45
65
40
Forecast wind gusts.
Forecast Timing
Forecast radar and satellite valid 12/1-12/6.
Forecast radar/satellite valid 12/1-12/6.
Forecast Totals
The combined the totals from storm #1 + storm #2 are impressive. For example:
Alta, UT: 24″ + 24″ = 48″ grand total by 12/7.
Jackson Hole, WY: 20″ + 17″ = 37″ grand total by 12/7.
Heavenly, CA: 37″ + 17″ = 54″ grand total by 12/7.
Tomer’s Take: Three different storm systems are lined-up for the West through 12/6 with major grand totals.
Excellent forcing with this storm cycle including orographics, much colder air pushing efficient ratios, weak atmospheric river (AR) setup for California, and southern jet branch involvement.
Grand totals by 12/6 will be measured in feet at numerous ski areas.
Jackson Hole is already reporting a foot of new snow in the last 24 hours. This is only storm #1.
Jackson Hole 9:55am 11/28/2022.
Current Setup
Infrared satellite shows a crowded Pacific with low pressure systems lined-up and southern jet branch involvement.
9:45am 11/28/2022.
Active Pattern
Forecast jet stream valid 11pm 11/28 shows the first of three different storm systems with major jet support. This first storm largely misses CA’s Sierra. High wind and much colder air follows this storm system.
Forecast jet stream valid 11/28/2022.
Forecast jet stream valid 12/6 shows an active storm track continuing. The overall track is further north versus yesterday’s data. This favors the northern tier of the Rockies for heaviest snowfall including PNW, BC, ID, MT, WY, UT, CO.
Tomer’s Take: The pattern is about to turn a lot more active for the West with three different storm systems lined-up through 12/3.
Storm #1 is minor and fast-moving 11/26-11/27 with only light snow accumulation for PNW, ID, MT, WY, UT, CO.
Storm #2 is major with colder air 11/27-11/29 for the same region.
Storm #3 is major and goes further south 11/30-12/3 benefitting PNW, CA, MT, ID, WY, UT, CO, NM.
Current Setup
Visible satellite shows a crowded storm track with several low pressure systems lined-up in the Pacific. The southern branch of the jet stream is also active.
Visible satellite 3:50pm 11/25/2022.
Western Jet Stream
Storm #1 is minor, fast-moving with light snow accumulation 11/26-11/27.
Storm #2 (below) is major with better jet support and a load of cold air from Canada.
The storm track is energized.
Forecast jet stream valid 11/28/2022.
Storm #3 (below) is riding a fast west-to-east jet stream and plenty of moisture potential.
Forecast jet stream valid 12/2/2022.
Forecast Snowfall
Storm #1 accumulation with some PNW influence from storm #2.
Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/25-11/27.
Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/25-11/27.
Storm #2 accumulation with some CA/PNW influence from storm #3.
Tomer’s Take: A much more active pattern for the West looms after 11/27 with widespread snow and colder temps.
There are two storm systems for the West between 11/27 and 12/3.
The combination generates heavy widespread accumulation.
In the Northeast, three different storm systems are lined-up through 12/2. The first is minor on 11/25. The 2nd is mainly rain (then changes to snow) on 11/27-11/28, and the third is similar on 11/30-12/1.
Current Setup
Visible satellite shows the storm track and two low pressure systems lined-up over the Pacific. Both will impact the West, but the first low is minor and fast-moving. The 2nd low becomes a widespread snow producer 11/27-11/29.
Visible satellite 5pm 11/24/2022.
Northeast Pattern
The track of storm #2 and #3 follow this jet pattern. They are too far north leaving most ski areas warm enough for rain initially (then snow on the backside).
Forecast jet stream valid 11/27/2022.
Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/24-12/2.
Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/24-12/2.
Western Pattern
Storm #1: A big dip in the stream delivers colder air and widespread snow accumulation across the West.
Forecast jet stream valid 11/28.
Forecast jet stream valid 11/28/2022.
Storm #2: Similar track to storm #1 (a little further south) with colder air and widespread snow accumulation.
Forecast jet stream valid 12/2.
Forecast jet stream valid 12/2.
Forecast Snowfall
Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/24-11/26.
Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/24-11/26.
Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/27-12/2.
This forecast chart captures total accumulation from both Storm #1 and Storm #2.
