Warm weekend, storm system next week

Tomer’s Take

  • Abnormally warm temps are likely this weekend across the West with 50s and 60s at the base of many ski areas.
  • High pressure stays in control through 3/28 then a storm system hits CA and moves east, 3/28-4/1. Confidence is low on what happens after 4/1.
  • This storm system runs into a very warm airmass and precipitation starts as rain in some mountain valleys before changing to snow.

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and high pressure anchored over the West.

Infrared satellite 3/25/2022 6am.

After 4/1

Confidence is low with mixed data, but it’s possible high pressure rebuilds across the West. This is one possible outcome.

Forecast pressure anomalies valid 4/2, GFS interpretation.

Snow Forecast

3/25-3/28:

Inches of total snow 3/25-3/28.

3/29-4/3:

This outcome assumes a stormier pattern after 4/1 rather than high pressure rebuilding.

Inches of total snow 3/29-4/3.

Northeast, 3/25-4/3:

Inches of total snow 3/25-4/3.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Spring skiing

Tomer’s Take

  • Big high pressure builds across the West through 3/28. Abnormally warm temperatures likely. Spring skiing is in full swing.
  • Then a storm system hits CA on 3/28 and moves east into ID, MT, WY, UT, CO, NM 3/29-4/2.
  • This storm system will run into warmer temps and some of the precipitation will start as rain or a rain/snow mix in many mountain valleys.

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and high pressure building in across the West.

Infrared satellite 3/24/2022 4am.

3/28-4/2

High pressure breaks down after 3/28 as a storm system moves into the West. Below, notice the forecast pressure anomalies on 3/29.

Forecast pressure anomalies valid 3/29/2022, GFS interpretation.

Snow Forecast

3/24-3/28:

Inches of total snow 3/24-3/28.

3/29-4/2:

Inches of total snow 3/29-4/2.

Northeast, 3/24-4/2:

Inches of total snow 3/24-4/2.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Spring skiing

Tomer’s Take

  • High pressure builds with Spring skiing through this weekend. Warmer temps at most ski areas.
  • The storm track shifts into the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, northern ID, northwest MT through 3/28.
  • On 3/28 a storm system hits CA then moves east into ID, MT, WY, UT, CO, and NM through 4/1.

Water vapor satellite shows the storm track, Western high pressure, and storm track shifting into the PNW/B.C.

Water vapor satellite 3/23/2022 4am.

Late March

A stormier weather pattern returns to the West late March and early April. Below, notice the forecast pressure anomalies valid 3/29.

Forecast pressure anomalies valid 3/29, GFS interpretation.

Snow Forecast

3/23-3/28:

Inches of total snow 3/23-3/28.

3/29-4/1:

Inches of total snow 3/29-4/1.

Northeast, 3/23-4/1:

Inches of total snow 3/23-4/1.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Snow forecast next 8 days

Tomer’s Take

  • A minor, fast cold front delivers a few snow showers on Tuesday in parts of WY, CO, and NM. Light accumulation.
  • High pressure rebuilds through 3/28.
  • The exception is the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, northern ID, and northwest MT where the storm track continues.
  • A storm system hits CA on 3/29 then moves east into ID, UT, MT, WY, CO, NM through 4/1.

Water vapor satellite shows the storm track and small cold front lined-up for WY, CO, NM. A big ridge of high pressure builds over CA.

Water vapor satellite 3/22/2022 4am. Orange/red = drier air aloft

Late March

Below, notice the forecast pressure anomalies valid 3/29 including lower pressures across the West.

Forecast pressure anomalies valid 3/22/2022, GFS interpretation.

Snow Forecast

3/22-3/23:

Inches of total snow 3/22-3/23.

3/24-3/29:

Inches of total snow 3/24-3/29.

3/30-3/31:

Inches of total snow 3/30-3/31.

Northeast, 3/22-3/31:

Inches of total snow 3/22-3/31.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

From major to minor

Tomer’s Take

  • At one point, the current Western storm system looked like it might develop into a major snowstorm in Colorado. Now it’s minor.
  • High pressure rebuilds 3/22-3/27.
  • A new Western storm system hits California on 3/27 then moves east into UT, ID, WY, MT, CO, NM on 3/28-3/29.
  • That’s followed by an active storm track in the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, northern ID, and northwest MT 3/29-3/31.

Current Situation

8″/24 hours reported at Alta, UT.

7″/24 hours reported at Jackson Hole, WY.

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and current Western storm system.

Infrared satellite 3/21/2022 5am.

3/28-3/29

A new storm system hits California and the West Coast on/around 3/28. Below, notice the forecast pressure anomalies.

Forecast pressure anomalies valid 3/28/2022, GFS interpretation.

Snow Forecast

3/21-3/22:

Inches of total snow 3/21-3/22.

3/23-3/27:

Inches of total snow 3/23-3/27.

3/28-3/30:

Inches of total snow 3/28-3/30.

Northeast, 3/21-3/30:

Inches of total snow 3/21-3/30.

Western storm system 3/19-3/22

Tomer’s Take

  • The next Western storm system hits the West Coast today 3/19.
  • Then it moves east into ID, MT, WY, UT, CO, NM.
  • Storm is trending weaker overall.
  • In Colorado and New Mexico on 3/21, earlier notions of a strong, deep low pressure are becoming less likely.
  • Then high pressure rebuilds.

Water vapor satellite shows the storm track and low pressure system hitting the West Coast.

Water vapor satellite 3/19/2022 8am.

Snow Forecast

3/19-3/22:

Inches of total snow 3/19-3/22.

3/23-3/28:

Inches of total snow 3/23-3/28.

Northeast, 3/19-3/28:

.Inches of total snow 3/19-3/28.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Next storm system

Tomer’s Take

  • The next storm system hits the West Coast late 3/18 into 3/19 then moves east.
  • It hits ID, WY, MT, UT on 3/19-3/20.
  • It hits CO, NM afternoon of 3/20 into early 3/22.
  • High pressure rebuilds on/after 3/22.

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and next storm system lined-up for the West.

Infrared satellite 3/18/2022 5am.

3/19-3/22

The storm system has jet stream support and it’s a couple degrees colder than the previous storm system.

Forecast jet stream wind and position valid 3/21/2022, GFS interpretation.

Snow Forecast

3/18-3/22:

Inches of total snow 3/18-3/22.

3/23-3/27:

Inches of total snow 3/23-3/27.

Northeast, 3/18-3/27:

Inches of total snow 3/18-3/27.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Snow forecast next 8 days

Tomer’s Take

  • Heavy snow continues in Colorado and New Mexico 3/17. This is a warmer storm system so grand totals may underperform.
  • Next storm system hits MT, ID, WY, UT, CO, NM 3/19-3/22. This storm system might be a couple degrees colder. Totals might be bigger.
  • Is there another storm behind this? Maybe but confidence is low.

Infrared satellite shows the active storm track and low pressure systems lined-up.

Infrared satellite 3/17/2022 5am.

3/19-3/22

The next storm system is a couple degrees colder. It has good jet stream support. Below, notice the forecast pressure anomalies valid 3/21.

Forecast pressure anomalies valid 3/21/2022, GFS interpretation.

Snow Forecast

3/17-3/18:

Inches of total snow 3/17-3/18.

3/19-3/22:

Inches of total snow 3/19-3/22.

3/23-3/26:

Inches of total snow 3/23-3/26.

Northeast, 3/17-3/26:

Inches of total snow 3/17-3/26.

Juicy storm system for Colorado

Tomer’s Take

  • A juicy, sloppy March storm system hits Colorado 3/16-3/17 with big totals at Winter Park, Loveland, A-Basin, Keystone, Breckenridge, Cameron Pass, and Eldora.
  • A second storm system hits CA, UT, ID, WY, MT, CO, NM 3/19-3/21.
  • Northeast: 3/19-3/20 storm system is trending warmer with rain/snow.

Water vapor satellite shows the storm track and juicy storm system rolling into Colorado. Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Water vapor satellite 3/16/2022 5am.

Snow Forecast

3/16-3/18:

Inches of total snow 3/16-3/18.

3/16-3/18:
Colorado Central and Northern Mountain Zones

Inches of total snow 3/16-3/18.

3/19-3/25:

Inches of total snow 3/19-3/25.

Northeast, 3/16-3/20:

Inches of total snow 3/16-3/20.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

La Nina continues into Summer

Water temperatures in the Equatorial South Pacific are running about 1.0C colder than normal. The latest forecast calls for water temps to stay colder than normal into Summer – through June-July-August.

The blue bars in the graph below represent La Nina.

Latest ENSO Outlook, 3/14/2022.

Here’s a look at the model spread over time. We’ve been locked into La Nina since Summer 2020. The zero line represents ENSO-neutral.

Model spread over time.

Impact to the West

Through Summer: STATUS QUO

Typical La Nina impact to storm track.

Hail and Tornado risk tends to be higher March-May with La Nina.

ENSO Severe Weather historical probabilities.

Beyond Summer

What phase will we see for next Fall?

The odds remain highest (40-50%) for a Neutral Phase.