Thanksgiving Pattern: East and West

Tomer’s Take:

  • Current fast N-S jet flow through MT, WY, CO gradually ends.
  • Much drier pattern for West continues.
  • Pattern shift for PNW/BC, MT, ID, WY on/after 11/21 but it’s not optimal.
  • Jet axis bends even further north keeping most of the Rockies drier than normal.
  • Eastern/Northeast: A larger Thanksgiving weekend storm system possible 11/25-11/27.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the storm track, fast N-S jet flow with cold front, and robust PNW high pressure ridge.

Infrared satellite 8:20am 11/18/2022.

Thanksgiving Pattern

Forecast jet stream flow on Thanksgiving 11/24 shows the shifting pattern with the jet axis bending far to the north. Some moisture feeds into the PNW/BC/Banff. The trend is for this bend to bend even further north keeping CA, UT, CO, NM drier.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/24/2022.

Forecast jet stream flow on 11/26. The axis stays put with CA, UT, CO, NM staying dry.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/26/2022.

Northeast Storm System?

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/25 suggests a large dip supporting a developing area of low pressure. This is something to watch.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/25/2022.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/18-11/23.

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/18-11/23.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast total snowfall (inches) valid 11/18-11/20.

Talk about an incredibly dry period with robust ridging over the PNW/BC.

Forecast snow totals valid 11/18-11/20.

Forecast total snowfall (inches) valid 11/21-11/26.

Even after a pattern shift on/after 11/21 the jet axis bends far to the north leaving most of the Rockies dry.

Forecast snow totals valid 11/21-11/26.

My forecast video 11/18:

2 thoughts on “Thanksgiving Pattern: East and West

  1. Ben Nilsson

    I think your plan of underforecasting snow fall in Colorado is working.
    6 inches of snow out of nowhere today at A basin.

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