East/West see-saw through Thanksgiving

Tomer’s Take:

  • A see-saw jet stream setting up East versus West through Thanksgiving (ridge West, trough East).
  • Robust high pressure ridge over AK/BC/PNW is problematic through Thanksgiving keeping most of the West drier than normal.
  • Out East, a strong storm system possible for Thanksgiving Weekend.
  • When will the pattern flip? Possibly on/after 11/27. See below.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the robust ridge over the PNW/BC/AK and ridge amplifiers to its West over the NPAC.

This also creates the see-saw jet pattern with large trough over the East.

Infrared satellite 8:15am 11/19/2022.

Thanksgiving Pattern

High pressure remains strong through 11/24 with jet axis bending far north into Canada. This leaves most of the Rockies drier than normal.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/24/2022.

Forecast jet flow valid 11/27. Now this is a different story with a breakdown of the ridge and lower atmospheric pressures plus a strong jet buckling south. This pattern would feed moisture into the PNW and interior Rockies.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/27/2022.

East Coast Storm System?

Forecast jet stream valid 11/26 shows a large dip in the jet stream over the East/Northeast and powerful jet streak. Best snow with this setup occurs interior-north through NH, VT, ME. But, this is not set in stone and my feeling is the track and intensity are still a question mark.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/26/2022.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/19-11/24.

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/19-11/24.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/19-11/21.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/19-11/21.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/22-11/27.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/22-11/27.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/19-11/27.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/22-11/27.

My video forecast 11/19:

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