Snow Northeast; Western Pattern Pivots

Tomer’s Take: Snow continues in the Northeast into 1/26 then a series of Clippers arrive. A fast Northwest Flow dominates the West until 1/28 when the pattern pivots south delivering big totals.

My forecast video 1/25:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the Northwest Flow across the West and big trough with storm system sliding through the Northeast.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream 2/3.

Active period 1/25-2/1.

Quiet period: 2/2-2/4.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/25-1/30.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/25-1/27.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/28-2/3.

Forecast C+N CO snow totals (inches) valid 1/25-2/3.

Forecast Steamboat, CO Snow Plume:

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/25-2/3. The bulk of this snow occurs 1/25-1/26 and potentially 2/1-2/2.

Fast NW Flow then pattern shifts

Tomer’s Take: A fast Northwest Flow (NWF) continues across the West then the pattern shifts south on/about 1/28 with snow returning to CA.

My forecast video 1/24:

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows a high pressure ridge off the West Coast and NWF racing through the Northern Rockies.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/2.

Active period 1/27-2/1.

Drier period 2/2-2/4.

Moisture returns on/after 2/4.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/24-1/29.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/24-1/26. Light totals with fast Northwest Flow.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/27-2/2. Bigger totals as entire pattern shifts south.

Forecast C+N CO snow totals (inches) valid 1/24-2/2.

Bulk of accumulation in Steamboat occurs 1/27-1/28 and 1/30-1/31.

Forecast snow plume for Jackson Hole, WY.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/24-2/2. Bulk of accumulation occurs 1/25-1/26.

2nd Storm System: 1/29-1/30.

3rd Possible Storm System: 2/1-2/2.

Snow forecast through February 1; Fast NW Flow then Shifting South

Tomer’s Take: A fast northwest flow (NWF) stays in place through 1/28 favoring the Northern tier of the Rockies then the jet shifts south and lower pressures expand across the West into 2/1.

My forecast video 1/23:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a high pressure ridge off the West Coast and NWF favoring the Northern tier of the Rockies. On/after 1/28 the high pressure retrogrades opening the door for a trough across the West.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/1. Active jet pattern for the West with areas of low pressure traversing the West.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/23-1/28.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/23-1/25.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/26-2/1.

Forecast Snow Plume for Jackson Hole.

Bulk of accumulation occurs late 1/26-1/29.

Forecast C+N CO snow totals (inches) valid 1/23-2/1.

Steamboat snow timeline:

Prolonged period of light/moderate snow accumulation late 1/24-1/31.

Biggest days appear to be 1/27-1/30.

Forecast Northeast snow totals (inches) valid 1/23-2/1.

Snow continues 1/23 then fades.

Next storm system: 1/25-1/26.

Possible storm system: 1/30.

Snow forecast through 1/31; NW Flow Trending Weaker

Tomer’s Take: The jet stream shifts north favoring the Northern Rockies early in the period. I’m still forecasting a fast NW Flow, but it’s trending much weaker. I’ve reduced most forecast snow totals. Then the pattern shifts south with lower atmospheric pressures across the West by the end of January.

My forecast video 1/22:

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 1/31. The high pressure ridge off the West Coast retrogrades opening the door for lower atmospheric pressures across the West and West Coast. This allows for snow to return to CA.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/22-1/24.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/25-1/31.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/22-1/31.

Fast NW Flow West with Big Totals

Tomer’s Take: The Western pattern is changing with the jet moving into a Northwest Flow (NWF) type orientation. Big snow totals are likely through 1/30 in certain preferred NWF locations.

Wolf Creek is reporting 10 inches in the last 24 hours. That’s now 66″ in the last 7 days.

My forecast video 1/21:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the shifting storm track with most energy now being shuttled into the PNW/BC then diving south on a NW flow.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 1/30. The NWF runs through 1/30 then lower atmospheric pressures start building in the PNW and expand. This results in an unsettled pattern for the West into early February.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/21-1/26.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/21-1/23.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/24-1/30. The power of the NWF is clear. Beneficiaries soak up the NWF and wring it out with high efficiency.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/21-1/30. Colorado’s Central and Northern Mountain zones.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/21-1/30.

Fast NW Flow for the West; 2-3 storm systems NE

Tomer’s Take: One last southern track low is sliding through the Four Corners. Then the jet stream moves north into a NW orientation. A fast NW flow sets up with several fast moving cold fronts/low pressures diving south out of Canada into MT, WY, UT, CO. In Northeast, 2-3 storm systems through 1/29 with 1-3 feet.

My forecast video 1/20:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the shifting storm track out West.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 1/29. Notice the fast jet stream running N-S through MT, WY, UT, CO.

Early February

Below is the EPS forecast atmospheric pressure anomalies (mid atmosphere) valid late 2/3. The high pressure ridge retrogrades towards the Bering Sea allowing lower pressures to build across the West.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/20-1/25.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/20-1/22.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/23-1/29.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/20-1/29.

Storm timeline:

1) Today

2) 1/22-1/23

3) 1/25-1/26

Western Pattern Shift; 2-3 Storm Systems Northeast

Tomer’s Take: A Western pattern shift is underway as the jet gradually moves north and takes on a NW oriented flow. A deeper trough sets up in the Northeast with 2-3 different storm systems lined-up through 1/28.

My forecast video 1/19:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a shifting storm track out West. Storm systems will now be routed further north into the PNW/BC.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 1/28. Notice the high pressure ridging in the Gulf of Alaska. Overall, this high will retrograde West into February 1. This opens the door for lower atmospheric pressures over more of the West.

Early February Pattern

EPS forecast atmospheric pressure anomalies (mid atmosphere) valid late 2/2. Lower pressure anomalies expand across the West.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/19-1/24.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/19-1/21.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/22-1/28. NW oriented jet flow takes over. This favors BC/Banff/MT/ID/WY/CO.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/19-1/28. I added Whiteface by request.

Storm#1: 1/19-1/20

Storm#2: 1/22-1/23

Storm#3: 1/25-1/26

Snow forecast through end of January

Tomer’s Take: A panhandle hooker storm system continues to slide through CO/NM then it becomes a Northeast storm system. The Western pattern then shifts. The jet moves north and higher pressures build across the Pacific and West Coast. Two additional storm systems might deliver big totals to the Northeast on 1/22-1/23 and 1/24-1/25.

Wolf Creek, CO is reporting another 16 inches in 24 hours and 52 inches in 4 days.

Photo Wolf Creek Ski Area.

A note on Mammoth Mountain. Their season total measured at the Main Lodge is 378″ with of course more at the summit.

My forecast video 1/18:

Current Setup

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 1/27. Notice the high pressure ridge over CA and parts of the Pacific. The storm track runs into the PNW, BC, MT, WY, CO.

Early February Pattern

Below is the EPS forecast atmospheric pressure anomalies (mid atmosphere) valid 2/1/2023.

The pattern continues to favor the West/PNW/Northern tier for snow and cold.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/18-1/23.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/18-1/20.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/21-1/27.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/18-1/27. Three total storm systems possible. 1) 1/19-1/20, 2) 1/22-1/23, 3) 1/24-1/25.

Pattern through February 1

Tomer’s Take: A major low pressure (last of the atmospheric river) slides through UT/AZ/CO/NM next 24 hours with big totals. Then, the pattern shifts north with high pressure ridging over the Pacific Ocean and West Coast. The jet takes a NW orientation favoring PNW/BC/ID/MT/UT/WY/CO. By February 1, a trough might establish itself across the entire West with snow and cold.

Alta, UT is reporting 20 inches in the last 24 hours. That’s a 4-day total of 49 inches = about a foot a day. 423 inches for the season so far where they’re “Rolling in the Deep”.

Mammoth Mountain is reporting 11 inches in the last 24 hours. 378 inches for the season so far.

Season Totals So Far:

My forecast video 1/17:

Current Setup

Visible satellite shows a split jet with leftover AR moisture and a southern track low. It becomes a Panhandle Hooker storm system for CO/NM.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 1/25. Notice the high pressure ridging off the West Coast and PNW. This flow favors Banff, MT, WY, northern UT, and the Central and Northern Mountains of CO.

February 1

Below is the EPS forecast atmospheric pressure anomalies (middle atmosphere) for late 1/31.

The high pressure ridge drifts West and a trough develops across the West. This type of pattern supports snow across the West.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/17-1/22.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/17-1/19.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/20-1/26. Notice the NW orientation of the snowfall/storm track.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/17-1/26. Central and Northern Mountains of Colorado:

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/17-1/26. Most of this snow falls 1/19-1/20 and 1/22-1/23.

Final AR storm system then new pattern emerges

Tomer’s Take: The final storm system loaded with atmospheric river (AR) moisture is moving through CA. It’s a southern track low headed for AZ, NM, UT, and CO with moderate to heavy snow accumulation. What happens after this? Higher atmospheric pressures build across the Pacific/West Coast pushing the jet stream north where it favors the PNW, BC, ID, MT, Banff, WY, UT, and CO via a northwest flow type orientation.

Alta, UT is reporting another 15 inches in the last 24 hours. That’s 399 inches for the season so far. I’m forecasting another 11″ in the next 48 hours.

My forecast video 1/16:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the final area of low pressure and Pineapple Express.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 1/25. Notice the high pressure ridging over the Pacific and NW orientation to the flow out of the PNW.

Late January/Early February

The EPS forecast atmospheric pressure anomalies (in the middle of the atmosphere) by late January 30 show the high pressure ridging gone and lower anomalies across the West. This would translate into a stormy pattern for the West by early February.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/16-1/21.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/16-1/18. This is the final AR period.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/19-1/25.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/16-1/25.