Blog - Page 27 of 62 - Meteorologist Chris Tomer

Snow Forecast through 2/17

Post author By christomer
Post date February 8, 2023
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow

Tomer’s Take: 2-3 storm systems are lined-up for the West through 2/17. But, the largest and coldest storm system occurs 2/13-2/15.

Season Totals so far!

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows a busy north Pacific. The initial trajectory of all storm systems is the PNW/BC where the biggest grand totals occur.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/17. The main storm system of the group slides through 2/13-2/15. Another storm system is approaching the West Coast on 2/17.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 2/8-2/13.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/8-2/10.

CO snow timing: 2/8-2/9, 2/14-2/15.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/11-2/17.

UT snow timing: 2/14-2/15.

WY snow timing: 2/14.

NM snow timing: 2/9 and 2/15.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/8-2/17.

Three storm systems through 2/16

Post author By christomer
Post date February 7, 2023
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow
2 Comments on Three storm systems through 2/16

Tomer’s Take: Three storm systems are lined-up through 2/16. The initial trajectory is the PNW/BC for biggest overall totals. The third storm system on/after 2/14 appears to be the most robust.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows three storm systems lined-up in the Pacific with initial trajectories into the PNW/BC.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/16. An active pattern with a large dip in the northern branch and some contribution from the southern branch. This supports a storm system 2/14-2/16.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 2/7-2/12.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/7-2/9.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/10-2/16.

UT: The best snow chance is 2/14-2/15.

CA: The best snow chances are 2/11 and 2/14.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/7-2/16.

The key days for snow are 2/8-2/9 and 2/15.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/7-2/16.

The key days for snow are 2/7, light 2/9-2/11, and 2/12-2/13.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/7-2/16.

Snow Forecast through Valentine’s Day

Post author By christomer
Post date February 6, 2023
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow

Tomer’s Take: Three different storm systems are lined-up through Valentine’s Day. The bullseye continues to be the PNW/BC.

Jackson Hole, WY is reporting 10″ in the last 24 hours. I’m forecasting light additional snow today then 3-9″ on on 2/8.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows two areas of low pressure lined-up over the Pacific.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/15. A large trough and area of low pressure slides across the West.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 2/6-2/11.

Mount Baker

Forecast timing:

2/6: 10″

2/7: 15″

2/8: 0″

2/9: 1″

2/10: 11″

2/11: 1″

2/12: 6″

2/13: 12″

2/14: 2″

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/6-2/8.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/9-2/15.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/6-2/15.

The key dates for snowfall are 2/6, 2/8-2/9, 2/12, 2/15.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/6-2/15.

Two Storm Systems through 2/13

Post author By christomer
Post date February 4, 2023
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow

Tomer’s Take: There are two storm systems that run across the West through 2/13. 1st: 2/5-2/6. 2nd: 2/8-2/9. A third approaches CA on 2/13.

Mount Baker is reporting 9 inches in the last 24 hours. I’m forecasting another 40 inches by 2/8.

My video forecast 2/4:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows two storm systems lined-up in the Pacific. Initial trajectory is the PNW/BC then the Intermountain West.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/13. A storm system approaches CA while fighting high pressure ridging over the Intermountain West.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 2/4-2/9.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/4-2/6.

Wasatch snow timing: 2/5-2/6 and 2/8.

Colorado snow timing: 2/5-2/6, 2/8-2/9.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/7-2/13.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/4-2/13.

Mount Baker, Whistler/Blackcomb, Stevens Pass, and Rainier should hit these totals by 2/8.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/4-2/13.

Snow Forecast through 2/12

Post author By christomer
Post date February 3, 2023
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow

Tomer’s Take: A few different areas of low pressure are lined-up in the Pacific with an initial trajectory into the PNW/BC on 2/3 then the storm track starts shifting further south on/after 2/5 through 2/12 to include CA, ID, UT, WY, MT, CO. Overall, forecast numbers have decreased a notch across the board.

My forecast video 2/3:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows three different storm systems lined-up in the Pacific. The initial trajectory is the PNW/BC.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/12. Notice the deep trough carrying a storm system into the West Coast.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 2/3-2/8.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/3-2/5.

99% of the snow in CO occurs late 2/5 into 2/6.

99% of the snow in the Wasatch occurs afternoon 2/5 into 2/6.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/6-2/12.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/3-2/12.

Totals are not as big as yesterday.

Mount Baker Timing:

2/3: 11″

2/4: 6″

2/5: 6″

2/6: 6″

2/7: 18″

2/8: 1″

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/3-2/12.

PNW/BC Bullseye; Storm System 2/5

Post author By christomer
Post date February 2, 2023
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow

Tomer’s Take: 4-5 different waves of moisture hit the PNW/BC 2/3-2/9 with four feet of accumulation or more. A storm system on/after 2/5 delivers snow to CA, ID, MT, WY, UT, and CO. A 2nd storm system follows a similar track 2/8-2/9. A 3rd storm system hits the West Coast on/around 2/11.

My forecast video 2/2:

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the storm track establishing itself with a rich feed of moisture and conveyor belt of storm systems lined-up for the PNW/BC.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/11. A large trough hits the West Coast.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 2/2-2/7.

Mount Baker

Forecast totals and timing:

2/3: 11″

2/4: 6″

2/5: 6″

2/6: 11″

2/7: 14″

2/8: 12″

2/9: 2″

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/2-2/4.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/5-2/11.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/2-2/11.

PNW Bullseye; Snow Forecast through 2/10

Post author By christomer
Post date February 1, 2023
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow
2 Comments on PNW Bullseye; Snow Forecast through 2/10

Tomer’s Take: A snow bullseye is setting up for the PNW/BC between 2/3-2/9 with feet of accumulation. Blow-off from this rich flow and a storm system also benefits ID, MT, WY, UT, CO, and CA on/after 2/5.

Season Totals

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a split jet flow running around a high pressure over CA. This directs a rich flow into the PNW/BC.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/10. A trough approaches the West Coast with high pressure ridging over the interior Rockies.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/1-2/3. Snow starts hitting PNW/BC afternoon of 2/3.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/4-2/10. The bulk of snow hits on/after 2/5 in ID, WY, MT, CO, UT, CA.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/1-2/10.

Storm System 2/5; PNW Bullseye

Post author By christomer
Post date January 31, 2023
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow
4 Comments on Storm System 2/5; PNW Bullseye

Tomer’s Take: The Intermountain West enters a quiet period 2/1-2/4 (ssshhhh) with high pressure. Then a storm system flattens the ridge on/after 2/5 with snow returning. The hot spot during the quiet period is the PNW/BC. Mount Baker could see over 4 feet.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the current setup. Orange/red = drier air aloft. The Pacific is busy but the storm track will take them into the BC/PNW until 2/5.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/9. The next trough of low pressure nails the PNW/BC.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/31-2/5.

Mount Baker

A slug of moisture hits Baker 2/3-2/9 and the forecast totals have exploded.

Forecast totals:

2/3: 12″

2/4: 20″

2/5: 20″

2/6: 10″

2/7: 3″

2/8: 20″

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/31-2/2.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/3-2/9.

Teton snow timeline:

2/5: 10″

2/6: 2″

2/7: 2″

2/8: 2″

2/9: 10″+

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/31-2/9.

Snow Forecast Through 2/8

Post author By christomer
Post date January 30, 2023
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow
2 Comments on Snow Forecast Through 2/8

Tomer’s Take: Snow continues in the Southern Rockies with an Arctic Front then a quiet period emerges 2/1-2/4 for the Interior Rockies. A storm system will follow on 2/5-2/8 with over a foot for the Tetons and Wasatch. The place to be during the quiet period is the PNW/BC.

Follow-up from 1/29 —>

On my forecast video yesterday, I randomly caught a Steamboat Ski Patroller on-cam digging out their Snow Stake buried in about 6 feet of snow. Link to the video is right here….take a look, it’s epic!

The Patroller emailed me and his name is Jon Nesbitt. Thanks for reaching out to me, Jon!