Tomer’s Take: Snow and colder air is pivoting south across the West. Big totals continue. A quiet period emerges 2/1-2/4.

Jackson Hole, WY is reporting 27 inches in the last 24 hours. That’s 42 inches in 48 hours!

Steamboat, CO is reporting 10 inches in the last 24 hours. That’s 18 inches in 48 hours!

Alta, UT is reporting 13 inches in the last 24 hours.

My forecast video 1/28:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the big trough across the West as the pattern pivots and the high retrogrades.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/6. Notice the trough across the Rockies.

Quiet period Rockies: 2/1-2/4.

Active period Rockies: 2/5-

Mount Baker

A slug of moisture hits Baker 2/3-2/6.

2/3: 9″

2/4: 12″

2/5: 12″

2/6: 6″

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/28-2/2.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/28-1/30.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/31-2/6.

Forecast C+N CO snow totals (inches) valid 1/28-2/6.

Forecast C+N CO snow totals (inches) valid 1/28-2/6.

The grand totals for Southern Colorado continue trending down.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/28-2/6.

Tomer’s Take: A fast Northwest Flow continues out West then the entire pattern pivots south on/after 1/28 with an Arctic airmass and widespread snow. Then a quiet period takes hold.

Steamboat is reporting 6″ in the last 24 hours. Season total is now up to 282 inches.

Jackson Hole, WY is reporting 15″ in the last 24 hours. Season total is up to 316 inches.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a retrograding high pressure ridge and fast Northwest Flow pivoting south.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/5. The West remains in the quiet period.

2/1-2/5 = Quiet period. Storm systems track into PNW/BC/Canada then into the Northeast.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/27-2/1.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/27-1/29.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/30-2/5.

Quiet period 2/1-2/5.

Forecast C+N CO snow totals (inches) valid 1/27-2/5.

Forecast Southern CO snow totals (inches) valid 1/27-2/5.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/27-2/5.

Two Clippers:

1/29-1/31.

2/2-2/3.

Tomer’s Take: It’s a powder day in the Northeast! I’m forecasting 2-3 additional Clippers through 2/4. Out West, a fast Northwest Flow (NWF) continues then the whole pattern pivots on/about 1/28. This spreads snow and colder temps south through the middle and southern Rockies. Then a quiet period builds 2/1-2/4.

My forecast video 1/26:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the fast Northwest Flow across the northern Rockies. On/after 1/28 the high pressure retrogrades and the NWF pivots south with lower atmospheric pressures.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/4. This is a quiet period for the West with the bulk of moisture routed through BC/PNW/Canada around a high pressure ridge.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/26-1/31.

Forecast Timing

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/26-1/28.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/29-2/4.

Forecast Southern CO snow totals (inches) valid 1/26-2/4.

Forecast C+N CO snow totals (inches) valid 1/26-2/4.

Forecast Snow Plume for Jackson Hole, WY.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/26-2/4.

Clippers:

1/29, 1/30, 1/31, maybe 2/3.

Tomer’s Take: Snow continues in the Northeast into 1/26 then a series of Clippers arrive. A fast Northwest Flow dominates the West until 1/28 when the pattern pivots south delivering big totals.

My forecast video 1/25:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the Northwest Flow across the West and big trough with storm system sliding through the Northeast.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream 2/3.

Active period 1/25-2/1.

Quiet period: 2/2-2/4.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/25-1/30.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/25-1/27.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/28-2/3.

Forecast C+N CO snow totals (inches) valid 1/25-2/3.

Forecast Steamboat, CO Snow Plume:

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/25-2/3. The bulk of this snow occurs 1/25-1/26 and potentially 2/1-2/2.

Tomer’s Take: A fast Northwest Flow (NWF) continues across the West then the pattern shifts south on/about 1/28 with snow returning to CA.

My forecast video 1/24:

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows a high pressure ridge off the West Coast and NWF racing through the Northern Rockies.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/2.

Active period 1/27-2/1.

Drier period 2/2-2/4.

Moisture returns on/after 2/4.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/24-1/29.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/24-1/26. Light totals with fast Northwest Flow.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/27-2/2. Bigger totals as entire pattern shifts south.

Forecast C+N CO snow totals (inches) valid 1/24-2/2.

Bulk of accumulation in Steamboat occurs 1/27-1/28 and 1/30-1/31.

Forecast snow plume for Jackson Hole, WY.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/24-2/2. Bulk of accumulation occurs 1/25-1/26.

2nd Storm System: 1/29-1/30.

3rd Possible Storm System: 2/1-2/2.

Tomer’s Take: A fast northwest flow (NWF) stays in place through 1/28 favoring the Northern tier of the Rockies then the jet shifts south and lower pressures expand across the West into 2/1.

My forecast video 1/23:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a high pressure ridge off the West Coast and NWF favoring the Northern tier of the Rockies. On/after 1/28 the high pressure retrogrades opening the door for a trough across the West.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/1. Active jet pattern for the West with areas of low pressure traversing the West.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/23-1/28.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/23-1/25.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/26-2/1.

Forecast Snow Plume for Jackson Hole.

Bulk of accumulation occurs late 1/26-1/29.

Forecast C+N CO snow totals (inches) valid 1/23-2/1.

Steamboat snow timeline:

Prolonged period of light/moderate snow accumulation late 1/24-1/31.

Biggest days appear to be 1/27-1/30.

Forecast Northeast snow totals (inches) valid 1/23-2/1.

Snow continues 1/23 then fades.

Next storm system: 1/25-1/26.

Possible storm system: 1/30.

Tomer’s Take: The jet stream shifts north favoring the Northern Rockies early in the period. I’m still forecasting a fast NW Flow, but it’s trending much weaker. I’ve reduced most forecast snow totals. Then the pattern shifts south with lower atmospheric pressures across the West by the end of January.

My forecast video 1/22:

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 1/31. The high pressure ridge off the West Coast retrogrades opening the door for lower atmospheric pressures across the West and West Coast. This allows for snow to return to CA.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/22-1/24.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/25-1/31.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/22-1/31.

Tomer’s Take: The Western pattern is changing with the jet moving into a Northwest Flow (NWF) type orientation. Big snow totals are likely through 1/30 in certain preferred NWF locations.

Wolf Creek is reporting 10 inches in the last 24 hours. That’s now 66″ in the last 7 days.

My forecast video 1/21:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the shifting storm track with most energy now being shuttled into the PNW/BC then diving south on a NW flow.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 1/30. The NWF runs through 1/30 then lower atmospheric pressures start building in the PNW and expand. This results in an unsettled pattern for the West into early February.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/21-1/26.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/21-1/23.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/24-1/30. The power of the NWF is clear. Beneficiaries soak up the NWF and wring it out with high efficiency.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/21-1/30. Colorado’s Central and Northern Mountain zones.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/21-1/30.

Tomer’s Take: One last southern track low is sliding through the Four Corners. Then the jet stream moves north into a NW orientation. A fast NW flow sets up with several fast moving cold fronts/low pressures diving south out of Canada into MT, WY, UT, CO. In Northeast, 2-3 storm systems through 1/29 with 1-3 feet.

My forecast video 1/20:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the shifting storm track out West.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 1/29. Notice the fast jet stream running N-S through MT, WY, UT, CO.

Early February

Below is the EPS forecast atmospheric pressure anomalies (mid atmosphere) valid late 2/3. The high pressure ridge retrogrades towards the Bering Sea allowing lower pressures to build across the West.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/20-1/25.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/20-1/22.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/23-1/29.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/20-1/29.

Storm timeline:

1) Today

2) 1/22-1/23

3) 1/25-1/26

Tomer’s Take: A Western pattern shift is underway as the jet gradually moves north and takes on a NW oriented flow. A deeper trough sets up in the Northeast with 2-3 different storm systems lined-up through 1/28.

My forecast video 1/19:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a shifting storm track out West. Storm systems will now be routed further north into the PNW/BC.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 1/28. Notice the high pressure ridging in the Gulf of Alaska. Overall, this high will retrograde West into February 1. This opens the door for lower atmospheric pressures over more of the West.

Early February Pattern

EPS forecast atmospheric pressure anomalies (mid atmosphere) valid late 2/2. Lower pressure anomalies expand across the West.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/19-1/24.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/19-1/21.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/22-1/28. NW oriented jet flow takes over. This favors BC/Banff/MT/ID/WY/CO.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/19-1/28. I added Whiteface by request.

Storm#1: 1/19-1/20

Storm#2: 1/22-1/23

Storm#3: 1/25-1/26