Final CO/NM Snow 2/10, Shifting Storm Track With Heavy Snow Possible

Tomer’s Take: The final storm system of this impressive storm cycle concludes in CO/NM 2/10 with moderate to snow accumulation. Then the pattern shifts north 2/11-2/15 to favor PNW/BC/Northern Tier. Then it shifts back to the south 2/16-2/20 to favor CA/UT/WY/ID/CO/NM with heavy snow potential and a rich Pacific flow via strong Subtropical jet (atmospheric river a possibility).

Snow Timeline:

CA: 2/17-2/19.

WY: PM 2/12 – AM 2/13, PM 2/14-2/19.

CO: 2/10, 2/17-2/19.

UT: PM 2/15-2/19.

I skied Monarch Mountain on 2/9 and it was excellent. Cold with 6-8 inches of powder in the morning then the sun broke through in the afternoon.

My forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the final storm system sliding through CO/NM 2/10.

A few different areas of energy are lined-up in the Northern Pacific waiting to ride the jet into the PNW/BC/Northern Tier 2/11-2/15.

Orange/red = Drier air aloft.

White/Blue/Green = Moisture aloft.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Bulk of UT/CO snow is 2/17-2/19.

VT/NH/ME:

Snow: 2/13, 2/16.

Powder Forecast, Storm Cycle through 2/10, El Nino Update

Tomer’s Take: A large storm system continues to move slowly through the Intermountain West. Two additional pieces of energy rotate into the mix and keeps the snow going through 2/10. Then the pattern shifts north 2/11-2/14 with snow targeting the PNW/BC/Northern Tier. A warmer, drier pattern builds 2/15-2/18.

20″ in 24 hours at Alta, UT and it continues to snow hard. I expect another foot of accumulation tonight through 2/8.

Snow Timeline:

Wasatch: Now-2/9

Tetons: Now-2/9, 2/14-2/15.

Colorado: Now-2/10

Revelstoke: 2/11-2/13, 2/15.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the current stormtrack. The primary area of low pressure remains over the Intermountain West. Smaller pieces of energy will rotate in from the west and keeps the snow going through 2/10.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

El Nino Update

Latest forecast guidance suggests El Nino transitions to a Neutral Phase by May 2024 and eventually La Nina by July-August 2024. This suggests that next Winter (2024-2025) will be a La Nina Winter.

Forecast Jet Stream

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

VT/NH/ME Snow: 2/12-2/13.

Next storm system; Snowfall through 2/10

Tomer’s Take: Storm cycle continues until 2/10. CA’s big storm system is finally making its move into the Intermountain West. Snowfall increases in UT and CO afternoon 2/6-2/9, snow continues in WY 2/6-2/9. A smaller, weaker storm system races through PNW/BC/Northern Tier 2/11-2/12 with light snow accumulation. Drier pattern 2/13-2/17.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor shows the large CA storm system finally making its move into the Intermountain West.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Broad trough and storm system moving through Intermountain West. Two smaller pieces of energy get absorbed keeping the snow going through 2/9.

Trough and storm system moving through UT/CO/WY/NM and then exiting 2/10.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Powder Days Ahead For CA/UT/WY/ID/MT/CO/NM

Tomer’s Take: Major storm cycle lasts until 2/10. A storm system continues to spin in CA with heavy rain and Sierra snow. A powerful Subtropical jet is transporting moisture ahead of this storm system on 2/5 into UT/ID/WY/MT and into CO/NM on 2/6. Smaller pieces of energy will dive into the intermountain west behind this storm and keep the snow going through 2/8-2/10.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Radar shows the main storm system spinning in CA. Powerful transport jet wind carries moisture into UT/ID/WY/MT.

Flash flooding continues in Southern CA. Almost a foot of rain in places from a rich AR surge, storm system, and powerful Subtropical jet flow.

Precipitable water (PWAT) valid early 2/5. This is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere. Notice the green/lime plume (or finger) of higher PWAT values pointing directly at Southern California. This is a signature of the atmospheric river (AR) and it enhances precipitation.

Forecast Jet Stream

CA storm system and trough starts to move into the interior Rockies.

Broad trough, storm system and smaller pieces of energy roll through UT/WY/ID/AZ/CO/NM.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

CO Snow: 2/6-2/10, 2/14.

UT Snow: 2/5-2/9.

WY Snow: 2/5-2/8, 2/13.

Revelstoke Snow: 2/6-2/8, 2/12-2/13.

VT/NH/ME Snow: 2/9-2/10 (Light), 2/12-2/13.

Update: Storm Cycle Through 2/12

Tomer’s Take: Current storm cycle lasts through 2/12 then high pressure builds. Next storm system is hitting CA with a moderate/strong atmospheric river (AR) surge 2/4-2/5. Then this storm system breaks loose 2/5-2/8 and hits UT/ID/WY/MT/CO/NM with heavy snow accumulation. A smaller storm system 2/8-2/9 races into UT/AZ/CO/NM and meshes with the prior storm system and keeps the snow going. Another small storm system 2/10-2/12 takes a northern track and moves through BC/MT/ID/WY/UT/CO with light to moderate snow accumulation.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Major storm system with a moderate/strong AR surge continues in California 2/4-2/5. Then this storm system breaks loose 2/5-2/8 and hits UT/ID/WY/MT/CO/NM.

Central CA Radar 2/4 at 3:45pm:

Water vapor satellite shows the storm system off the CA coast. The other storm system will curve into AK/Canada and eventually send energy south into the United States.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Powerful moisture transport into CA and optimized Subtropical jet stream orientation.

Storm system(s) and trough sliding through the Rockies with heavy snow accumulation.

Storm system and remaining trough exiting CO/NM. Small storm system in BC races southeast into Northern Tier.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

UT Snow: 2/5-2/9, 2/12.

CO Snow: 2/6-2/10, 2/12.

WY Snow: 2/5-2/8, 2/10-2/11.

Revelstoke Snow: 2/4, 2/6, 2/8-2/9, 2/11.

VT/NH/ME Snow: 2/10, 2/12-2/13.

Storm cycle continues through 2/12 with feet of additional accumulation

Tomer’s Take: CO Panhandle Hooker delivers heavy wet snow accumulation with additional accumulation at Loveland/Winter Park/A-Basin/Keystone/Eldora through tonight making Sunday a powder day. Utah turns drier until PM 2/5-2/9 with 3 feet inbound. Snow continues 2/4 WY/MT. Next storm system hits CA 2/4-2/5 with feet of Sierra snow and 6 months worth of rain in Los Angeles then it moves into the interior with heavy snow accumulation 2/5-2/9. Additional 2-3 storm systems 2/9-2/12 with moderate to heavy accumulation from CA through Central Rockies.

My afternoon forecast video update:

CO Panhandle Hooker Storm System

Impressive features with this storm system including enhanced upslope flow, frontal boundary, and barrier jet.

Front Range rain changed to heavy, wet snowfall. Sunday will be clear and dry in Denver.

Snow continues until midnight for Divide ski areas like Loveland, A-Basin, Keystone, Summit County, Winter Park, and Eldora with additional accumulation. Sunday is a powder day.

Radar at 3:30pm 2/3:

Forecast Jet Stream

Next storm system hammers CA/Sierra 2/4-2/5 with 6 months worth of rain in Los Angeles and feet of Sierra snow accumulation. Notice the jet orientation and rich moisture transport optimized. This delivers a moderate to strong AR surge.

Then, this storm system moves into UT/ID/WY/MT/CO/NM with feet of snow accumulation 2/5-2/9.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Update: Big Totals 2/1-2/9 Measured In Feet

Tomer’s Take: Snow continues with storm #1 tonight through 2/4 across the Intermountain West. A Panhandle Hooker storm system develops in Colorado on 2/3 with enhanced snowfall. Storm #2 slams CA starting 2/4 with a moderate/strong intensity atmospheric river (AR) surge, 6 months worth of rain, and feet of Sierra snow accumulation. I’m forecasting grand totals measured in feet across the Sierra, Wasatch, Tetons, and W/SW Colorado. A third storm system races across British Columbia and the Northern Tier (& possibly UT/CO) 2/10-2/11 with light to moderate snow accumulation.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a busy Pacific. I marked the developing Panhandle Hooker storm system in SE CO/NM/Panhandle. Two other areas of low pressure converge in CA 2/4-2/5 with a moderate/strong AR surge.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Panhandle Hooker Developing

Radar shows the developing storm system and circulation near the panhandles of TX/OK. Storm matures on 2/3 with enhanced upslope over Denver, Foothills and Divide. Precipitation starts as rain or a mix in Denver then goes to snow afternoon/night of 2/3. All snow above 6,000ft with significant accumulation.

Old Man Winter Rally 2/4

Event takes place in Lyons, CO on 2/4.

Note: Inbound storm system likely all snow above 6,000ft with mix below.

2/2: Increasing clouds, light rain or rain/snow mix 10pm, gusts under 15mph, 35F.

2/3: AM rain showers or rain/snow mix, PM mix to all snow with 2-4 inches, gusts under 15mph, 34/37F.

2/4: Turning drier, turning sunny, wind gusts under 15mph, 30/40F.

Forecast Atmospheric River

Forecast Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) for Central/South CA coast 36.5N/122W valid next 7 days. Notice the moderate to strong AR surge with storm #2.

Forecast Jet Stream

Storm #2 with deep trough moving into the interior Rockies from CA.

Storm #3 follows jet and delivers light to moderate snow accumulation to BC and Northern Tier and possibly CO/UT.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand Totals by 2/9.

Storm #1 (storm #2 hits CA starting 2/4)

Storm #2.

Storm #3.

Big Totals 2/1-2/8 Measured In Feet

Tomer’s Take: Heavy snow continues in the Sierra with storm #1. This storm then moves into UT/WY/ID/MT/CO/NM through 2/4. A Panhandle Hooker storm system develops near the TX/OK panhandles on 2/3. This storm system enhances snowfall totals across parts of CO and NM. Storm #2 delivers a moderate intensity atmospheric river (AR) surge to CA 2/4-2/5. This storm then moves into UT/ID/WY/MT/CO through 2/8. Big grand totals likely measured in feet in CA/UT/WY/CO.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows three different storm systems lined-up in the Pacific riding a powerful Subtropical jet stream.

Red/orange = drier air aloft.

Old Man Winter Rally 2/4

Event takes place in Lyons, CO on 2/4.

2/2: Increasing clouds, rain to snow after 10pm, gusts under 15mph, 37/46F.

2/3: 2-4 inches (mixing with rain), gusts under 15mph, 34/38F.

2/4: Turning drier, wind gusts under 15mph, 32/40F.

Forecast Atmospheric River (AR)

Forecast Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) valid for the South/Central CA coast. Notice the moderate AR surge with storm #2 on 2/4-2/5.

Forecast precipitable water content valid 2/3-2/4. The atmospheric river surge/plume is obvious.

This could result in eight inches of rain in Los Angeles 2/4-2/5.

Forecast Jet Stream

Storm #1 moves into UT/WY/CO/ID/MT/NM.

Storm #2 and trough sliding out of CA into UT/ID/WY/CO/NM.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand Total snow by 2/10.

Bulk of snow timeline:

UT: 2/2

CO: 2/2-2/3

WY: Late 2/2 – AM 2/4

Bulk of snow timeline:

UT: 2/5-2/7.

CO: 2/6-2/9.

WY: 2/5-2/7.

Totals Trending Up in CA/CO/UT 2/1-2/9, Three Bullseyes, Panhandle Hooker

Tomer’s Take: Grand totals are trending up in UT, CA, and CO with two different storm systems 2/1-2/9. I’m forecasting three grand total bullseyes in the Sierra, Wasatch, and Southwest CO. Both storm systems deliver a moderate intensity surge of Atmospheric River (AR) moisture to CA. Storm #1 hits now through 2/4, and storm #2 hits 2/5-2/9. On 2/3, a Panhandle Hooker storm system develops around the TX/OK Panhandle and forces snow (or rain/snow) development in Denver, Foothills, and Mountains. The intensity and track of this storm system dictates how much accumulation occurs at Loveland, A-Basin, Summit County, Winter Park, Keystone, and Eldora.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Old Man Winter Rally 2/4

Event takes place in Lyons, CO on 2/4.

2/2: Increasing clouds, gusts under 15mph, 35/44F.

2/3: 3-6 inches (mixing with rain), gusts under 15mph, 33/39F.

2/4: 1 inch snow until 9am then drier, wind gusts under 15mph, 32/37F.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows both storm systems lined-up and escorted by a strong Subtropical jet.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Central/Northern CA radar shows heavy precipitation inbound. Snow hits Tahoe and Mammoth tonight into 2/1 above 7,000ft.

Forecast Atmospheric River

Forecast Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) for the Central/Northern CA Coast at 38N/123W. Notice two moderate intensity AR surges.

Forecast Jet Stream

Storm #1 riding strong Subtropical jet 2/1-2/4.

Storm #2 with broad trough 2/5-2/9.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand Totals: Storm #1 + Storm #2.

Totals are trending up in the Wasatch, CA, and CO.

Three bullseyes: Sierra, Wasatch, Southwest Colorado.

Storm #1.

Storm #2.

Update: First Week of February, Atmospheric River, Panhandle Hooker

Tomer’s Take: Two different storm systems remain on track 2/1-2/8. Storm #1 (2/1-2/4) delivers a moderate intensity atmospheric river (AR) surge, widespread heavy interior Rockies snow accumulation, and a Panhandle Hooker storm system for Colorado on 2/3. Storm #2 (2/5-2/8) delivers a weak AR surge and moderate to heavy interior Rockies snow accumulation.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Old Man Winter Rally 2/4

Event takes place in Lyons, CO on 2/4.

2/2: Increasing clouds, Rain to snow after 10pm, gusts under 15mph, 34/40F.

2/3: 3-6 inches, gusts under 15mph, 32/34F.

2/4: Drier, cloudy, 29/38F.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows both storm systems lined-up in the Pacific riding a powerful Subtropical jet stream.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Freezing Level

Forecast rain/snow line (daily min/max):

Sierra, CA:

1/31: Falling from 10,000′ to 7,400′.

2/1: Falling from 7000′ to 3600′.

2/2: 2300/5600′.

2/3: 5100/6200′.

2/4: 5600/7200′.

Wasatch, UT:

2/1: 7900/9400′.

2/2: 5600/7100′.

2/3: 3900/5200′.

2/4: 5900/6700′.

Forecast Atmospheric River

Forecast Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) showing two AR surges.

Forecast Jet Stream

Storm #1 arrives with powerful Subtropical jet stream.

Storm #2. Notice the trough moving west to east through UT/AZ/NM/CO.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand Totals: Storm #1 + Storm #2.

Storm #1.

Storm #2.