Blog - Page 2 of 41 - Meteorologist Chris Tomer

Snow forecast through 3/26

Post author By christomer
Post date March 17, 2023
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow
2 Comments on Snow forecast through 3/26

Tomer’s Take: 2-3 different storm systems are possible through 3/26 across the West. The snow bullseyes are CA, UT, AZ, NM, and CO with feet of accumulation.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the next storm cycle loading-up over the Pacific.

Forecast Tahoe Rain/Snow Line

3/19: 7400′

3/20: 5700′

3/21: 5600′

3/22: 5900′

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 3/25. Notice the big trough over the West keeping the pattern unsettled for the Mountains.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 3/17-3/22.

Wolf Creek, CO

3/17: 2″

3/18: 1″

3/20: Late 6-8″

3/21: 18″

3/22: 18″

3/23: 1″

3/25: 6″

3/26: 6″

Taos, NM

3/17: 3″

3/18: 1″

3/20: Late 4″

3/21: 12″

3/22: 12″

3/25: 2″

3/26: 2″

Forecast Totals

3/17-3/19:

3/20-3/26:

3/17-3/26:

VT/NH/ME bulk of snow occurs 3/23-3/25.

Pattern through end of March

Post author By christomer
Post date March 16, 2023
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow
No Comments on Pattern through end of March

Tomer’s Take: Pattern remains active for parts of the West through the end of March. Steady snow accumulation is likely in the Sierra 3/19-3/25 then the pattern shifts north favoring the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier of States.

Season Totals So Far:

Mammoth’s All-Time Record at the Main Lodge (Base) is 668″ set in 2010-2011. Summit total is currently 778″.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 3/25. An area of low pressure slides through the Intermountain West.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 3/16-3/21.

End of March Pattern

Forecast mid-atmosphere pressure anomalies valid 3/30. Overall pattern favors the PNW/Northern Tier of states for unsettled weather.

Forecast Tahoe Rain/Snow Line

3/19: 7200′

3/20: 7100′

3/21: 5800′

Forecast Totals

3/16-3/18:

3/19-3/25:

3/16-3/25:

Two storm systems through 3/24

Post author By christomer
Post date March 15, 2023
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow
2 Comments on Two storm systems through 3/24

Tomer’s Take: Two storm systems are likely across the West through 3/24. The snow bullseyes are CA, AZ, UT, NM, and CO. Snow levels start high on 3/15 then gradually fall. The PNW and Northern Tier are largely out of the storm track with lighter accumulation.

Forecast Wasatch Rain/Snow Line

3/15: 7600′ early, 6500′ afternoon

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 3/21. Notice the trough and gathering storm system over CA.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 3/15-3/20.

Forecast Totals

3/15-3/17:

3/18-3/24:

3/16-3/24:

Three storm systems through 3/23

Post author By christomer
Post date March 14, 2023
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow

Tomer’s Take: Three storm systems are likely across the West through 3/23. The last significant AR surge continues today then fades. In the Northeast, heavy snow continues today with another strong storm system possible 3/22-3/23.

Forecast Tahoe Rain/Snow Line

3/14: Up to 7900′

3/15: Up to 6600′

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the Pineapple Express entrenched. Red/orange = drier air aloft.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 3/21. This is the 3rd storm system of the period.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 3/14-3/19.

Alta, UT

3/14: Late 5″

3/15: 10″

3/18: 1″

3/21: 20″

3/22: 3″

Forecast Totals

3/14-3/16:

3/17-3/23:

3/14-3/23:

VT/NH/ME Key Snow Dates:

3/14: 11-12″+

3/15: AM 2″

3/17: 2″

3/22: 8″

3/23: 6″

Next Atmospheric River Surge 3/14; Another 3/21

Post author By christomer
Post date March 13, 2023
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow

Tomer’s Take: The next atmospheric river (AR) surge hits CA late 3/13 through early 3/15. Watching for one additional AR surge on 3/21. The Northeast gets moderate to heavy snow late 3/13 through early 3/15.

Forecast Tahoe Rain/Snow Line

3/13: Up to 7400′

3/14: Up to 8500′

3/15: Up to 6400′

3/16: Up to 7100′

3/17: Up to 6900′

3/18: Up to 6700′

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the Pineapple Express in full swing.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 3/19. The jet could be setting up for one more atmospheric river surge around 3/21

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 3/13-3/18.

Snowmass, CO

3/13: 1″

3/15: 3-6″

3/16: 6″

3/19: 1″

3/20: 1″

3/21: 1″

3/22: 5-10″

Forecast Timing

3/13-3/15:

3/16-3/22:

3/13-3/22:

VT/NH/ME Key Snow Dates:

3/13: Late 2″

3/14: 15″+

3/15: 1″

3/17: 1″

3/18: 2″

Snow forecast through 3/21

Post author By christomer
Post date March 12, 2023
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow

Tomer’s Take: High rain/snow line continues in CA. Next atmospheric river (AR) surge arrives late 3/13-3/15. Looking down the road, another storm system hits the West 3/19-3/21 with colder air.

My mountain weather forecast video 3/12:

Forecast Tahoe Rain/Snow Line

3/12: Up to 7100′

3/13: Up to 7400′

3/14: Up to 8400′

3/15: Up to 6700′

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 3/19. Strong jet streak over the Pacific escorting next storm system into the West.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 3/12-3/17:

Forecast Totals

3/12-3/14:

3/15-3/21:

3/13-3/21:

Main storm system hits late 3/13 through early 3/15. Light snow on 3/18.

AR Surge 3/14 and Storm System 3/19

Post author By christomer
Post date March 11, 2023
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow

Tomer’s Take: Active jet pattern continues out West with another atmospheric river (AR) surge coming late 3/13 through early 3/15. This is followed by a storm system on 3/18-3/20. The Northeast could see two storm systems.

My mountain weather forecast video 3/11:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the Pineapple Express in full swing.

Forecast Lake Tahoe Rain/Snow Level

3/11: Up to 7200′

3/12: Up to 7100′

3/13: Up to 7200′

3/14: Up to 7900′

3/15: Up to 7100′

3/16: Up to 9200′

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 3/19. Notice the active West-to-East flow escorting storm systems inland.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 3/11-3/16.

Forecast Totals

3/11-3/13:

3/14-3/20:

3/11-3/20:

VT/NH/ME Key Snow Dates:

3/11: 1″

3/13: Late 1″

3/14: 10″

3/15: 1″

3/18: 6″

Snow forecast through 3/19

Post author By christomer
Post date March 10, 2023
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow

Tomer’s Take: The current atmospheric river (AR) continues through 3/11 then fades. The 2nd moderate to strong intensity AR surge occurs 3/13-3/15. Beyond 3/15 there is one additional storm systems but it’s not AR related.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the Pineapple Express.

Tahoe Rain/Snow Line

3/10: Up to 7,400′

3/11: Up to 6,900′

3/12: Up to 7,100′

3/13: Up to 7,100′

3/14: Up to 7,900′

3/15: Up to 6,800′

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 3/19. An area of low pressure is sliding across the Intermountain West.

Forecast AR

Below is the ECMWF Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) for the next 7-10 days.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite 3/10-3/15.

Forecast Totals

3/10-3/12:

3/13-3/19:

3/10-3/19 Grand Totals:

3/10-3/19:

VT/NH/ME Key Snow Dates:

3/13: Late 1″

3/14: 9″

3/15: 1″

3/19: 7″

21-Hour Epic on the Maroon Bells; Christopher Fish is chasing Andrew Hamilton for the Winter 14er Record

Post author By christomer
Post date March 9, 2023
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow, Trail Running
2 Comments on 21-Hour Epic on the Maroon Bells; Christopher Fish is chasing Andrew Hamilton for the Winter 14er Record

Mountain athlete Christopher Fisher is on the precipice of becoming only the 2nd known person to climb all Colorado 14ers in calendar Winter. The only other known person is Andrew Hamilton who did it 12/21/2017-3/16/2018 (84D13H57M).

In a testament to his character, Hamilton is now helping Fisher break his own record. The two stood atop Longs Peak on a dead calm day last week. And now, the two shared an “epic 21-hour day” on the Bells (3/8/2023).

I actually stumbled on Chris’s journey on accident while scrolling Instagram. I was immediately hooked.

Then my phone chimed. I received a text from Chris about weather forecasts for the remaining 14ers. Big wind was coming and now we’re dealing with two atmospheric river surges. Complications for sure but all part of the challenge.

Fast forward to the Bells. I could tell this was going to be serious. I stressed to Chris that 3/10-3/16 looked unsettled with a powerful jet and warm/heavy Pacific/Pineapple Express moisture overrunning CO. Chris is an amazing endurance athlete with the mindset of a Navy SEAL. He was ready to go at the drop of a hat.

The Bells had to be done before the 1-3 feet of new snow. And, keep in mind, the start of calendar Spring is Monday, March 20 at 3:24pm MT. Chris has 3 peaks remaining (Pyramid, Castle, Conundrum).

The photos from the Bells tells the story of two men who are maestros both physically and mentally.

You can follow both Christopher and Andrew on Instagram:

Chris

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Christopher Fisher (@chrisjfish)

Andrew:

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A post shared by Andrea&Andrew (@a2summit)

Pineapple Express, High Snow Levels, Deep Totals

Post author By christomer
Post date March 9, 2023
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing

Tomer’s Take: Two atmospheric river surges will push the rain/snow line to 7,000-8,500ft in the Sierra. The biggest snow totals occur above this level. Heavy overrun snowfall occurs in UT, CO, WY.