Category: Meteorology

First big mountain snow of the season

Tomer’s Take: The first significant mountain snow of the season is possible 10/22-10/24. Beneficiaries: PNW, Banff, MT, ID, UT, WY, CO. Air temps will run 10-20 degrees below normal. The jet stream delivers strong wind (40-80mph) to the higher peaks of UT, WY, MT and CO between 10/22-10/24. I’ll drill-down on this in future updates […]

When will it snow, part 2

Tomer’s Take: Pattern change remains possible on/after 10/23 across the West. Beneficiaries: CO, UT, WY, ID, MT, PNW, Banff. Lower atmospheric pressures replace high pressure ridge. Snow and colder temps = net result. If this verifies it would be the first significant snowfall of the season for much of the Intermountain West. Current Setup Infrared […]

When will it snow?

Tomer’s Take: A large Western ridge of high pressure remains in control through 10/22. A pattern change is possible on/after 10/23. A large dip in the jet stream and lower atmospheric pressures might replace the large Western high pressure ridge. This pattern change might run 10/23-10/27. Net result: snow and colder temps for UT, CO, […]

Golden days of October

Tomer’s take: High pressure remains in control of the West. Mid-atmosphere pressure readings are running 2-3 standard deviations above (higher) the 20-year average. This pattern mirrors the Fall of 2021-2022. When will this change? Some data suggests 10/23. Current Setup Infrared satellite shows the large ridge of high pressure sitting over the Pacific/PNW/West. Crystal clear […]

The snow that wasn’t

Tomer’s Take: Significant snow in Colorado appeared likely based on data a few days ago. Now, that possibility has vanished. Why? It goes to what I talked about in my Winter Forecast: The North Pacific Heat Wave. This warmer than normal ocean water tends to anchor a large dome of high pressure over the PNW/West […]

High mountain snow likely in Colorado this weekend

Tomer’s Take: A series of cold fronts deliver colder air and snow accumulation above treeline Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in Colorado. Below treeline precipitation stays rain. Snow accumulation is possible in all mountain zones above treeline. Some of the biggest totals might occur in the San Juan Mountains. Air temps in the mountains will gradually […]

Gates & Boudreau: Winter Outlook 2022-2023

Tomer’s Take: Meteorologist Cory Gates and Ryan Boudreau released their official Winter Outlook 2022-2023 with heavy focus on Aspen/Snowmass. I featured their outlook last winter and it was incredibly accurate for the Aspen Zone. You can follow and subscribe to their weather updates on Aspenweather.net. I released my Winter Outlook last week. Here’s the full […]

October snow forecast; Fall color update

Tomer’s Take: Two active periods for mountain snow are possible regulated by a ridge of high pressure. Two active periods slightly favor Western Slope zones for higher totals. Best accumulation will occur at higher elevations with melting in-between. Peak Fall color in Colorado is running behind schedule in some mountain zones. My full Winter Forecast […]

Winter forecast 2022-2023

Tomer’s Take: Rare triple-dip La Nina. Multivariate ENSO Index strongest since 2010. Warm blob is back but for how long? Abnormally warm and dry Fall season across the West. Late start to Winter. Large Western ridge of high pressure September 2022 – March 2023. Overall, target PNW, British Columbia, Banff Area, Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana […]

Merbok takes aim at Alaska; Weekend events in Colorado

Tomer’s Take: Remnants from Typhoon Merbok to bring 50ft seas and 70mph wind gusts to Alaska. In Colorado, remnants from Kay and a jet streak keep rain/snow and gusty wind going in the Central and Northern Mountain zones 9/15-9/17. Pikes Peak Ascent/Marathon and Run Rabbit Run events occur this weekend. Current Setup Water vapor satellite […]