Category: Meteorology

El Nino is here: What to expect across the West

Tomer’s Take: El Nino has arrived. The triple-dip La Nina is over. Bottom line, El Nino is here through Winter 2024. The La Nina for a generation The 2022-2023 La Nina delivered big time to CA, UT, and CO. In fact, it overdelivered. It overperformed in ways not seen in historical records. It was a […]

Rain totals last 30 days; What’s next?

Tomer’s Take: Parts of Colorado are soaked after record rainfall totals over the last 30 days. Some places are pushing a foot of rainfall. The pattern stays wetter than normal through June 15 then returns to a “normal” precipitation pattern after June 15 through June 30. Denver Front Range Accumulated precipitation May 1 – June […]

Update: Wet June Forecast

Tomer’s Take: May and now June are wetter than normal across parts of the West. I’m forecasting wetter than normal conditions through June 15 then the pattern gradually returns to ‘normal’ precipitation late June. The effects are more pronounced June 20-30 just before the seasonal Monsoon. Precipitation Last 30 Days Percentage of average valid 5/5-6/3: […]

Update: June Looks Wet

Tomer’s Take: I’m forecasting above normal early to mid June precipitation for most of the West with a powerful Subtropical Jet Stream. But, what above mid to late June? Data points to drier air for a few states including CO, WY, NM, AZ. Rich Flow with Subtropical Jet Valid 6/10: This is not normal for […]

June Looks Wet

Tomer’s Take: I’m forecasting a wetter than normal start to June across the Intermountain West. Why? Extra moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean will flood the atmosphere. The door is wide open at all key atmospheric levels. Precipitable water anomalies run 100-300% of normal. This extra moisture fuels widespread afternoon rain and […]

Weekend Mountain Weather update; Early June Looking Wet

Tomer’s Take: Forecast freezing levels stay elevated. This forces the snowpack to continue melting across the West. I’m also forecasting afternoon thunderstorms almost every single day across the Intermountain West with a rich feed of moisture. Early June could be wetter than normal. 11:30am view from Vail looking East/Northeast across the Gore Range. Snow continues […]

Less Smoke!

Tomer’s Take: The large plume of thick wildfire smoke has moved out of Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana. It’s moving east. What’s next? The afternoon thunderstorm pattern continues across the Intermountain West along with a rich moisture feed. The smoke has cleared! Look at this before/after showing much clearer view from Arapahoe Basin looking West-Southwest (5/22 […]

Photos: Deep Summit Snow on 14,115′ Pikes Peak

Tomer’s Take: Luke Doyle sent me several amazing photos of crews clearing the road to the 14,115′ summit of Pikes Peak. The bulk of this deep snow occurred during the ‘super soaker storm system’ on 5/10-5/12. I estimated 3-4 feet accumulated. All photos are from Luke Doyle who is a senior equipment operator on Pikes […]

Wildfire Smoke Forecast; Afternoon Thunderstorm Pattern

Tomer’s Take: Thick smoke continues to choke MT, WY, ID, parts of UT, parts of CO, and the Great Plains through 5/23. Then, the smoke starts to move east and away late 5/23 into 5/24 with improving air quality. Also, the afternoon thunderstorm pattern is engaged through the end of May. Smoke Forecast Below is […]

Next Surge of Wildfire Smoke; Afternoon Thunderstorm Pattern

Tomer’s Take: The next surge of wildfire smoke from Canada is moving south. A reinforcing shot hits MT, northern UT, WY, northern CO, and the Great Plains on 5/21-5/22. And, the afternoon thunderstorm pattern is fully engaged across the Intermountain West through the end of May. Is this normal for May? In Colorado, the answer […]