Category: Forecasting

Monsoon surge late week: Forecast details

Tomer’s Take: Major surge of Monsoon moisture hits AZ, NM, UT, and CO Thursday-Friday. In Colorado, this is the largest surge of the season so far. In Colorado, the Southern Mountains get hit the hardest. Flash flooding possible starting Wednesday afternoon/night with multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Total rainfall by 7/31 could run 1-4 inches in […]

Monsoon surge this weekend

Tomer’s Take: The Monsoon is 1-2 weeks earlier than normal and it’s here to stay (normal Monsoon season is July-August in Colorado). The first official surge of the season occurred last weekend. This weekend’s surge looks bigger and intensity peaks on Saturday. The biggest impact occurs in the San Juan and Sangre De Cristo Mountain […]

Monsoon preview this weekend

Tomer’s Take: A surge of pre-Monsoon season moisture hits Colorado Saturday-Monday. Normal Monsoon season runs July-August. The areas most affected are the Western Slope and Southern Mountains of Colorado. Precipitable water increases to 200% of June 30-year average values. Bottom line: plan on smaller weather windows. Expect mountain thunderstorms by 10am or earlier across the […]

Deep snow in the Sangre De Cristo’s

Tomer’s Take: Total maximum new snow between 5/20-5/25 above treeline in the Sangre De Cristo’s likely ranged from 1-4 feet. Amounts below treeline were likely on the low end of this range with melting and compaction. The biggest totals might favor East facing slopes. SWE maxed out at 4.1″ over Hayden Pass and 3.8″ at […]

Reflections on 5/20-5/21 Snowstorm

Tomer’s Take: Mountain and Foothill totals ranged from 1 to 2.5ft. This is in-line with forecast amounts. Ratios ranged from 10:1 to 14:1. That made 12:1 the average storm ratio, which is low for many Colorado mountain zones. Mid-winter ratios run 14:1 or higher. Snow density was high with SWE ranging from 1″ to 2.7″. […]

Colorado snow bullseye

Tomer’s Take: A major late May snowstorm is on track with the biggest overall totals falling across Colorado’s Foothills and Continental Divide above 6,000ft. This cold front will first slide south through MT and WY with minor snow accumulation. Strong wind precedes this storm system. Current Setup Infrared satellite shows the storm track. The low […]

Strong May cold front

Tomer’s Take: A strong cold front remains on track for MT, WY, and CO between 5/19-5/20. Forecast atmospheric pressure anomalies run 2-3 standard deviations below the 30-year average. The bulk of snow falls in SW MT and on CO’s Continental Divide-East. Yellowstone could see 1″ of accumulation. Big Sky and Cooke City could see several […]

Snow chance for Colorado, Wyoming, Montana

Tomer’s Take: A strong late-season dip in the jet stream could deliver snow 5/19-5/20 to MT, WY, and CO. Snow levels fall significantly to the valley floor in some locations. Frost/Freeze is also possible. Forecast atmospheric pressure anomalies could run 2-3 standard deviations from the 30-year average. Strong wind 30-80mph ahead of this storm system. […]

Pattern through end of May

Tomer’s Take: High pressure rebuilds across the West 5/13-5/18. The storm track shifts into the PNW/B.C. Then pressures might drop with a large trough and dip in the jet stream 5/19-5/25. Beyond 5/25? High pressure might rebuild. What are the possible effects of a large trough 5/19-5/25? Colder than normal temps, mountain snowfall, and strong […]

Rollercoaster out West; Strongest May La Nina since 2000

Tomer’s Take: Latest La Nina May readings show -1.2C water temp anomalies (NINO 3.4 region). This is the strongest May La Nina since 2000. This means La Nina is driving the overall Western pattern. Western trough stays in place through 5/13 then higher pressures rebuild. What about the rest of May? Lower pressures could move […]