Pattern through end of May

Tomer’s Take:

  • High pressure rebuilds across the West 5/13-5/18. The storm track shifts into the PNW/B.C.
  • Then pressures might drop with a large trough and dip in the jet stream 5/19-5/25.
  • Beyond 5/25? High pressure might rebuild.
  • What are the possible effects of a large trough 5/19-5/25? Colder than normal temps, mountain snowfall, and strong wind by May standards.
  • Dust continues be a significant problem across parts of the West including UT and CO. New dust is being transported in as I write this column. The dust decreases snowpack albedo and accelerates snowmelt. This is likely the most dust since 2009.

Wasatch Dust

Look at the dust layers lurking in the Wasatch as presented by Dr. McKenzie Skiles:

In Colorado, MODIS satellite with MAIAC Aerosol Optical Depth overlay really paints the smoky/dusty picture.

MODIS MAIAC Aerosol Optical Depth overlay 5/12/2022.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and powerful jet stream running through the Intermountain West.

Infrared satellite 5/12/2022 9am.

5/19-5/25

A large trough of low pressure is possible across the West. Below, notice the atmospheric pressure anomalies. After 5/25? High pressure might rebuild.

Forecast pressure anomalies valid 5/21/2022, EPS interpretation.

Wind Gust Forecast

Notice how winds relax as high pressure rebuilds 5/13 and after.

Gust (MPH)5/125/135/145/15
Little Bear Peak65403535
Quandary Peak55403525
Mount Sneffels55303025
Kings Peak55403025
Humphreys Peak40253535
Grand Teton45554020

Snow Forecast

5/12-5/21:

Inches of total snow 5/12-5/21.

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