Tomer’s Take: Brutal morning across UT/CO with a jet blast (100mph gusts), low visibility, and below zero air temps. Wind continues through this afternoon. The next surge of snow arrives tonight through 1/15 with the main storm system rotating out of OR/CA. Feet of snow yet to accumulate.
My afternoon forecast video update:
114mph wind gust at 4am 1/13 on Breckenridge Peak 8 at 12,998ft:
Grand Totals by late 1/22.
Tomer’s Take: Powder weekend ahead, but use extreme caution! Feet of additional accumulation likely in UT/CO/OR. An Arctic front and storm system are inbound 1/12-1/15. Snow increases afternoon 1/12 in UT/CO along with 40-70mph wind gusts raking the high peaks of WY/CO/UT. Strong wind continues into 1/13. Snow decreases in WY afternoon 1/12 as the Arctic front slides south and drapes itself over OR/UT/CO. The main area of low pressure rotates through OR and then CA 1/12-1/13. It breaks loose and moves east into UT/WY/CO late 1/13-1/15 with another round of heavy snow. A second storm system races out of the PNW into ID/MT/WY/UT/CO on 1/17-1/18 with additional accumulation.
In the Northeast, a powerful storm system hits late 1/12-1/13 with 70mph wind gusts and heavy snow changing to rain/snow VT/NH/ME. Another storm system is possible 1/19-1/20.
My afternoon forecast video:
Brutal conditions in Colorado. Observations from Berthoud Pass this morning:
Max Gust Forecast.
Central & Northern Mountains, CO:
1/12: 75mph.
1/13: 50-80mph.
1/14: 50-55mph.
Teton Range, WY:
1/12: 75mph.
1/13: 50mph.
Wasatch Range, UT:
1/12: 70mph.
1/13: 40mph.
1/14: 55mph.
Arctic front + storm system and powerful northern & southern jet support.
Second storm system 1/17-1/18 with fast WNW flow across ID/WY/MT/UT/CO.
Grand totals by late 1/21.
UT Snow: PM 1/12-1/15, 1/17-1/18.
CO Snow: PM 1/12-1/15, 1/17-1/18.
WY Snow: 1/14, 1/17-1/18.
Arctic front + storm system.
Storm system + WNW Flow 1/17-1/18.
Northeast:
VT/NH/ME Snow: 1/13, 1/14 (light), 1/16 (light), 1/19-1/20.
Tomer’s Take: Today is transition day with a storm system hand-off. Snow continues 1/11 in CO/NM diminishing from north to south. Then snow redevelops WA/OR/MT/ID/WY/CO on 1/12 as an Arctic front barrels south. Air temps run 30 to 50 degrees below normal. A storm system rides this Arctic front with strong orographics, high snow ratios, and a jet blast. 40-70mph wind gusts likely in UT/WY/CO on 1/12-1/13 raking the high peaks. Another storm system hits BC/MT/ID/WY/UT/CO 1/16-1/19 with a NW flow orientation.
In the Northeast, a strong storm system arrives 1/12-1/13 with 70mph gusts and heavy snow changing to rain/snow VT/NH/ME. What once looked like a promising snowstorm on 1/16-1/17 is tracking even further south now with less accumulation in VH/NH/ME. Another storm system arrives 1/19-1/20 with heavy snow potential.
My afternoon forecast video update:
Heavy snow continues today at Aspen/Snowmass with 4-8 inches of accumulation.
Snowbasin, UT is reporting 12″ in 24 hours. I’m forecasting another 1-2 feet across the Wasatch 1/10-1/11.
Arctic front and powerful jet merger.
Main storm system moving through UT/CO/NM.
Storm system 1/16-1/19 and NW flow orientation.
Forecast Wind Gusts in Colorado on 1/12 at 2pm. Similar gusts early 1/13.
Mount Superior, UT:
1/12: 70mph.
1/13: AM 60mph, PM 50mph.
Grand Teton, WY:
1/12: 70mph.
1/13: AM 50mph, PM 40mph.
From the Colorado Avalanche Information Center pertaining to this weekend:
Totals by late 1/20.
Arctic front + next storm system 1/12-1/15.
Strong orographics, high snow ratios, and jet blast.
Storm system + NW Flow orientation.
Northeast:
*Updated 4pm 1/11.
Only storm on the horizon is 1/12-1/13.
Tomer’s Take: The next wave of snow hits UT/WY/CO afternoon 1/10 through 1/11. Then another storm system and Arctic front hits the West 1/12-1/15 with strong orographics, high snow ratios, and a jet blast. Snow squalls are possible in UT & CO 1/12-1/14. Another storm system 1/16-1/19 hits BC/MT/ID/WY/CO with a NW type flow.
In the Northeast, a powerful storm system arrives 1/12-1/13 (not unlike the 1/9-1/10 bomb cyclone) with 70mph gusts and heavy snow changing to rain/snow at the major ski areas. Another storm system on 1/16-1/17 is not looking as impressive as it did in this mornings update.
My afternoon forecast video update:
Water vapor satellite shows a strong area of low pressure traversing the West. An Arctic front is lurking to the north.
Orange/red = drier air aloft.
Valid 1/11. Trough and storm system departs CO/NM.
Valid 1/13. Powerful merger of northern and southern jet with Arctic front. Max orographics and snow ratios likely and WNW flow orientation.
Valid 1/17. Final storm system 1/16-1/19. Heavy snow favors ID/WY/MT/CO with WNW flow orientation.
Valid 1/12 at 4pm. 50-70mph gusts on Colorado’s high peaks. Gusts would be similar on Saturday 1/13 in the morning.
Mount Superior, UT:
1/12: 60mph
1/13: AM 40-50mph, PM 25mph
Grand Teton, WY.
1/12: 60mph
Grand Totals from three different storm systems.
Northeast:
Next storm system 1/12-1/13.
Storm system 1/16-1/17 is looking weaker – that’s why these numbers have decreased.
Tomer’s Take: A powerful storm cycle continues with storm systems on both coasts through 1/17. Out West, a blizzard (storm #2) hammers OR/WA 1/9. This storm system then moves into the Interior Rockies 1/9-1/11. Storm #3 delivers an Arctic front 1/12-1/15. Another storm system hits the PNW then Interior Rockies 1/16-1/17.
In the Northeast, each of these storm systems develop into major areas of low pressure. A bomb cyclone arrives 1/9-1/10 with 70mph gusts and heavy snow changing to rain/snow or rain at the VT/NH/ME ski areas. Another storm system arrives 1/12-1/13 with 70mph gusts and heavy snow changing to a rain/snow mix. A third storm system hits with heavy snow 1/16-1/17.
My afternoon forecast video update:
Wasatch: PM 1/9-1/10, PM 1/11-1/14, 1/17-1/18.
Tetons: 1/9- AM 1/12, 1/13, 1/16-1/18.
Idaho: 1/9-1/11, 1/15-1/18.
WA/OR: 1/9-1/13, 1/16-1/18.
CO: 1/10-1/14, 1/17-1/18.
The Pacific is a busy place with a few different areas of low pressure riding both the northern and southern jet branches.
Orange/red = drier air aloft.
A powerhouse storm system (bomb cyclone) develops in the Midwest then hits the Northeast 1/9-1/10.
Storm #2 dropping into the Interior Rockies.
Storm #3 + Arctic Front.
Storm #4 hits PNW then slides into the Interior Rockies.
Mount Bachelor, OR:
1/9: 65mph
1/10: 50mph
1/11: 60-65mph
1/12: 50mph
1/17: 65mph
Mount Superior, UT:
1/12: 55mph
Vail Mountain, CO:
1/10: 50mph
1/12: 60mph
1/13: 45mph
Longs Peak, CO:
1/9 & 1/10: 60mph
1/12 & 1/13: 55-60mph
1/16 & 1/17: 60-65mph
Quandary Peak, CO
1/9-1/10: 50mph
1/12 & 1/13: 65mph
Grand Totals by 1/18.
Storm #2.
Storm #3.
Storm #4.
Tomer’s Take: Storm #1 exits CO/NM later today (1/8). Storm #2 dives south into the West 1/9-1/11. Storm #3 arrives 1/12-1/15 with an Arctic front.
In the Northeast, the next storm system arrives 1/9-1/10 followed by another storm system 1/12-1/13. A third storm system is possible on 1/17.
My afternoon forecast video update:
Wolf Creek, CO got nailed with 21 inches in 24 hours & 29 inches in 48 hours.
Water vapor satellite shows storm #1 exiting CO/NM. Storm #2 is poised in the north Pacific/AK/Canada.
Orange/red = drier air aloft.
Storm #2 diving south into PNW then Intermountain West.
Storm #3 and Arctic front colliding over the West.
Storm #3 sliding through UT/CO/WY/NM.
Grand Totals from storm #2 + storm #3.
Storm #2.
Storm #3.
Northeast Grand Totals from next 2-3 storm systems.
Next storm system 1/9-1/10 hits with 70mph gusts and heavy snow changing to rain/snow or rain all all major ski areas.
Tomer’s Take: Storm #1 continues into 1/8 and then exits CO/NM. Storm #2 arrives 1/9-1/11. Storm #3 is the most interesting and most significant with Arctic air, robust jet support, high snow ratios, and big accumulation. Feet of grand total accumulation across most mountain ranges by 1/16. The Wasatch totals with storm #3 are trending up, and the Teton Range is split.
In the Northeast, the next storm system arrives 1/9-1/10, and storm #3 1/12-1/13.
My afternoon video forecast update:
Storm #1 moves through CO/WY/UT/NM and departs CO/NM afternoon 1/8.
Storm #2 follows storm #1. Storm #3 is lurking.
Orange/red = drier air aloft.
Grand Totals 1/7-1/16. Storm #3 1/12-1/14 generates biggest snow totals.
Storm #1.
Storm #2.
Storm #3. Confidence is lowest with storm #3.
Wasatch totals are trending up.
Teton totals are split. It’s possible that once the Arctic front blows through that snow accumulation tapers off.
Northeast, next storm system 1/9-1/10 with 70mph gusts and heavy snow changing over to rain/snow or rain in VT/NH/ME.
Another storm system 1/12-1/13 with moderate to heavy snow accumulation.
Tomer’s Take: Snow accumulation over the last 24hours is bonus snow – appetizer snow. There are three different storm systems lined-up with this storm cycle through 1/15. Storm #1 arrives today through 1/8. Storm #2 1/9-1/11. Storm #3 1/12-1/15. Confidence is lowest in storm #3 as guidance shifts dramatically with respect to Arctic air and storm strength.
All three storm systems hit the Northeast through 1/15. Storm #1 occurs 1/6-1/7 with moderate to heavy snow accumulation. Storm #2 1/9-1/10 is a powerhouse with 70mph wind gusts, heavy snow at the onset changing to rain or a rain/snow mix at the big resorts. Storm #3 1/13 continues to evolve with moderate to heavy snow potential.
My afternoon forecast video update:
Steamboat got nailed over the last 24 hours. 14″ in 24 hours and 19″ in 48 hours. And, it’s still snowing. This is bonus snow.
Water vapor satellite shows storm #1 and storm #2 lined-up. Storm #1 is the pattern changer.
In the Northeast, notice the area of low pressure gathering steam.
Orange/red = drier air aloft.
Storm #1, deep trough.
Storm #2, broad, deep trough.
Storm #3, trough, colder air.
Grand Totals 1/6-1/15. Storm #1+#2+#3.
Storm #1.
Storm #2.
Storm #3.
Grand Totals 1/6-1/15.
VT/NH/ME Snow: 1/6-1/7, 1/9-1/10 (Wind/Snow/Rain), 1/13.
Tomer’s Take: A three storm cycle hits the West 1/6-1/14. Big grand totals. The #3 storm system drags down the coldest air of the season from the Arctic. Air temps by 1/13-1/15 run 30 to 50 degrees below the 30year average with many places below zero.
All three storm systems ride a powerful jet stream into the Northeast. Precipitation chances include 1/6-1/7, 1/9-1/10, and 1/12-1/13.
My forecast video update:
Steamboat and Winter Park, CO are reporting 5 inches in the last 24 hours from a southern track storm system.
Water vapor satellite shows vanguard light snow with a front racing through the Intermountain West. It also shows the pattern changing low in the north Pacific/Gulf of AK.
Orange/red= drier air aloft.
Storm #1. Deep trough and colder air.
Storm #2.
Storm #3. Deep trough and Arctic Blast rotates south.
The #3 storm system drags down an Arctic Blast across the West 1/13-1/15. This is a major trough in the atmosphere. Air temps run 30 to 50 degrees below the 30year average with many places below zero.
Below is forecast air temperature anomalies valid 1/14.
Grand Totals by late 1/14 from Storm #1+Storm#2+Storm#3.
1/5-1/8.
1/9-1/11.
1/12-1/14.
Grand Totals by late 1/14 in Southern Colorado. Snow all the way down to the valley floor in Durango and Bayfield.
VT/NH/ME Snow: 1/6-1/7, 1/9-1/10, 1/12-1/13.
Tomer’s Take: A three storm cycle hits the West 1/6-1/13 with big totals and colder air. An Arctic blast could hit the Intermountain West on/about 1/13 with air temps running 30-40 degrees below normal. This trough runs 4-5 standard deviations below the 30 year average.
The Northeast benefits from all three Western storm systems. Moderate to heavy snow hits VT/NH/ME 1/6-1/7, heavy 1/9-1/10 with 70mph gusts (& rain/snow mix), moderate to heavy 1/12-1/13.
My afternoon forecast video update:
A small southern track low moves through CO/NM. Two large storm systems are lined-up in the north Pacific. Those are the pattern changing lows.
Storm #1. Deep trough, snow, colder air.
Storm #2. Broad trough, snow, colder air.
Post Storm #3. Deep trough, Arctic Blast.
Valid on/about 1/13. Forecast air temperature anomalies vs 30 year averages.
Parts of the Intermountain West in purple run 30-40 degrees below normal.
Light vanguard snow 1/5 ID/WY/MT/UT/CO.
Southern track low snow 1/4-1/5 CO/NM.
Storm #1 accumulation.
Storm #2 + Storm #3 accumulation.
Grand total accumulation 1/6-1/13 from Storm #1 + Storm #2 + Storm #3.
*Update 4:30pm 1/4.
VT/NH/ME/NY Grand Totals:
Storm #1: 1/6-1/7
Storm #2: 1/9-1/10
Storm #3: 1/12-1/13
