Snow forecast next 8 days

Tomer’s Take

  • Heavy snow continues in the Northeast on 2/25. About a foot of accumulation in VT, NH, ME, MA.
  • Small wave of snow races through parts of UT, WY, CO on 2/25 with 1-3 inches of accumulation. Then high pressure rebuilds through 3/1.
  • Storm track shifts north into the PNW, B.C., and eventually ID, MT through 3/2.
  • Then it gradually shifts south to include CA, UT, WY, and CO between 3/3-3/12 with lower pressures in control. This could mean a return to snow and cold for the West.

Wolf Creek

4-Day Grand Total: 51″ (4.1″ SWE)

Ratio: 12.4:1

Season Totals so far

Inches of total snow.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and what’s lined-up for the PNW/B.C. this weekend and early next week.

Infrared satellite 2/25/2022 5am.

First 12 Days of March

3/1-3/3: Heaviest precipitation favors the Pacific Northwest, B.C., northern ID, and western MT.

3/3-3/12: Storm track shifts south to include CA, remainder of ID and MT, WY, UT, and CO.

Below, notice the forecast pressure anomalies across the West on 3/12. If this plays out then expect colder temps and snow.

Forecast pressure anomalies valid 3/12, GFS interpretation.

Snow Forecast

2/25-2/28:

Inches of total snow 2/25-2/28.

3/1-3/6:

Inches of total snow 3/1-3/6.

Northeast, 2/25-3/6:

90% of this snow falls on 2/25.

Inches of total snow 2/25-3/6.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Final days of February; A look into March

Tomer’s Take

  • Storm #2 is exiting Colorado. Next stop is the Northeast ski areas Thursday night-Friday.
  • Tiny wave of light snow races through MT, ID, WY, UT, CO through 2/25 then high pressure rebuilds.
  • Storm track shifts into the PNW and B.C. 2/25-3/1. It grows to include northern ID and western MT.
  • Then it gradually shifts south to include most of CA, UT, WY, and CO after 3/3.

Colorado Totals & SWE

3-Day Storm Cycle Snow Totals:

  • Wolf Creek: 43″ (SWE 3.9″)
  • Silverton Mountain: 44″ (SWE 3.1″)
  • Purgatory: 45″
  • Telluride: 30″
  • Snowmass: 32″
  • Crested Butte: 20″

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the dip in the storm track over the north Pacific headed for the PNW and B.C. this weekend. Orange/red colors = drier air aloft.

Water vapor satellite 2/24/2022 5am.

Early March

The storm track will gradually shift south from the PNW into ID, MT, WY, CA, UT, and CO. This occurs between 3/1 and 3/10. Below, notice the lower forecast pressure anomalies on 3/7/2022 across the West. The lowest pressures maximize around 3/10.

Forecast pressure anomalies valid 3/7/2022, GFS interpretation.

Snow Forecast

2/24-2/28:

Inches of total snow 2/24-2/28.

3/1-3/5:

Inches of total snow 3/1-3/5.

Northeast, 2/24-3/5:

Most of this accumulation occurs on 2/25.

Inches of total snow 2/24-3/5.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Western snow then what’s next? A look into March

Tomer’s Take

  • Storm #2 is currently sliding through UT and into CO and NM with heavy additional accumulation through 2/24. My Bullseye Collection includes Crested Butte, Aspen/Snowmass, Silverton Mountain, Purgatory, Telluride, and Wolf Creek.
  • Then high pressure rebuilds 2/25-3/1. Storm track shifts north and favors Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and eventually ID, MT, and WY.
  • Between 3/3-3/10 the storm track gradually shifts south and favors CA, ID, UT, MT, WY, and CO. Full details below.

Bullseye Collection in the last 48 hours:

Aspen Highlands: 25″

Crested Butte: 14″

Purgatory: 33″

Silverton Mountain: 30″

Telluride: 21″

Wolf Creek: 25″

Aspen Highlands cam 2/23/2022 6:25am.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the 2-storm combo for the West and high pressure lurking over the Pacific. Orange/red colors = drier air aloft.

Looking Down The Road

High pressure rebuilds across the West 2/25-3/1. The storm track shifts north to favor the PNW, B.C., and eventually ID, MT and WY.

After 3/3 it gradually shifts south to favor CA and the Intermountain West. Lower pressures build and reach a minimum by 3/8-3/10. This might translate into a colder, snowier pattern from CA to UT to CO.

Forecast pressure anomalies valid 3/8/2022, GFS interpretation.

Snow Forecast

2/23-2/24:

Inches of total snow 2/23-2/24.

Zoom of Southern Colorado, 2/23-2/24:

Inches of total snow 2/23-2/24.

2/25-2/28:

Inches of total snow 2/25-2/28.

3/1-3/4:

Inches of total snow 3/1-3/4.

Northeast, 2/23-2/28:

Inches of total snow 2/23-2/28.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Western Snow: Two Storm Combo

Tomer’s Take

  • Colorado bullseye spots: 8-10″ in the last 24hrs reported at Aspen/Snowmass, Crested Butte, Telluride, Silverton, and Wolf Creek. I’m forecasting another 1-2+ feet by Thursday morning. Wolf Creek might be the biggest winner with almost 4 total feet.
  • Arctic air continues filtering in-between storm systems.
  • Taos: 1-2 feet total by Thursday afternoon. Lull in snowfall between storm #1 and storm #2 on Wednesday morning. The sun might even come out. 70% of the grand total comes from storm #2 between Wednesday afternoon-Thursday.
  • Wasatch: Another wave of accumulating snow arrives Tuesday night through Wednesday, 4-6″ new.

Crested Butte, CO is one of my bullseye spots for big totals. Looking good so far.

Crested Butte, CO 2/22/2022.

Wolf Creek, CO is on their way to almost 4 feet by Thursday afternoon. Heavy snow continues:

Wolf Creek cam 2/22/2022.

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and two-storm combo for the West. A few large low pressure systems are cruising through the North Pacific and will nail the PNW and B.C. (maybe even parts of CA) between 2/26-3/4 as the storm track shifts.

Infrared satellite 2/22/2022 5am.

Snow Forecast

2/22-2/24:

Inches of total snow 2/22-2/24.

2/25-3/2:

Inches of total snow 2/25-3/2.

Zoom of Southern Colorado, 2/22-2/24:

Inches of total snow 2/22-2/24.

Forecast snow plume for Taos, NM:

Inches of total snow accumulation.

Forecast snow plume for Alta, UT:

Inches of total snow accumulation.

Northeast, 2/22-3/3:

Most of this accumulation occurs on 2/25 and 3/3.

Inches of total snow 2/22-3/3.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Snow forecast next 8 days

Tomer’s Take

  • 12″/24hrs new reported at Jackson Hole and now temps plummet.
  • I’m forecasting 6-10″ for the Wasatch through 2/24 and temps plummet.
  • Biggest totals of 2-3 feet occur in Western and Southern Colorado by 2/24. This favors Aspen/Snowmass, Crested Butte, Telluride, Purgatory, Silverton Mountain, and Wolf Creek.
  • Taos, NM is also in-line for about 2 feet of total accumulation by 2/24.
  • Pattern turns drier for the Intermountain West after 2/24 through 3/2. Storm track shifts to the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia.

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and amplified jet stream. The big dip across the West supports the colder air and lower pressures.

Infrared satellite 2/21/2022 6am.

Pattern after 2/24

High pressure rebuilds across the Intermountain West after 2/24 through March 3. The storm track shifts to the PNW and B.C.

Forecast pressure anomalies valid 3/1/2022, Euro interpretation.

Snow Forecast

2/21-2/24:

Inches of total snow 2/21-2/24.

2/25-3/2:

Inches of total snow 2/25-3/2.

Forecast snow plume for Aspen/Snowmass:

Inches of total snow accumulation.

Northeast, 2/21-3/2:

90% of this accumulation occurs on 2/25.

Inches of total snow 2/21-3/2.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

This Week: Big Totals and Cold

Tomer’s Take

  • Two-storm combo and Arctic blast for parts of the West.
  • Lull in the snowfall between storm #1 and storm #2.
  • Arctic air plunges south.
  • Biggest totals in Colorado over a 3.5-day period. Western Slope and Southern Mountains get 2-3 feet favoring Aspen/Snowmass, Crested Butte, Telluride, Silverton, Purgatory, and Wolf Creek. Less at all other resorts.
  • About a foot total for the Wasatch and Tetons over a two day period.

I went backcountry skiing in Colorado on Saturday morning. I found crystal clear skies and a nearly full Snow Moon glowing bright.

Crystal clear Colorado beauty.

My complete forecast video including two snow plumes, Northeast, and snow forecasts through March 1:

2/20-2/24:

Inches of total snow 2/20-2/24.
Inches of total snow accumulation.

Western storm system and Arctic front

Tomer’s Track

  • Heavy snow next week across parts of the Intermountain West – especially Colorado with 1-3 feet.
  • About a foot for the Wasatch and Tetons.
  • This is a two-storm combo with an Arctic front.

Here’s my mountain weather forecast video:

2/19-2/24:

Inches of total snow 2/19-2/24.

Forecast snow plume for Crested Butte, CO:

Inches of total snow accumulation.

Big totals next week and Arctic blast

Tomer’s Take

  • 2-3 day dry break across the Intermountain West (IW).
  • Two storm combo hits the IW 2/20-2/23.
  • An Arctic front accompanies this storm cycle. Air temps plummet early next week aiding in snow efficiency.
  • 1-3 feet possible across parts of CO.
  • A foot or more across the Wasatch and Tetons.
  • What follows this storm cycle through March 1? Data remains split and confidence is low.

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and storm systems lurking for next week. They will drag and Arctic front down as well.

Infrared satellite 2/18/2022 5am.

Storm Cycle

Below, notice the amplification of the jet stream valid 2/21-22/2022. The jet reaches into the Arctic and buckles south. Both storm systems will ride this storm track.

Forecast jet stream wind valid 2/21-22/2022, GFS interpretation.

Snow Forecast

2/18-2/24:

Inches of total snow 2/18-2/24.

2/25-2/27:

Inches of total snow 2/25-2/27.

Forecast snow plume for Crested Butte, CO:

Inches of total snow accumulation.

Northeast, 2/18-2/27:

Inches of total snow.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Two storm systems next week

Tomer’s Take

  • It now looks like a two-storm combo for next week, 2/20-2/24 across the West.
  • They are colder, windier, and stronger storm systems versus the one that just moved through the Intermountain West.
  • Big totals possible in West/SW CO and Northern NM.
  • What happens after 2/24? Data remains split and confidence is low. High pressure might rebuild.

Water vapor satellite shows the storm track and next low pressure lined-over the Pacific. Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Water vapor satellite 2/17/2022 5am.

Next Week

A second storm system appears to piggy-back on the initial low pressure. This creates a larger window of snow potential for some areas (especially West/SW CO and Northern NM) between 2/20-2/24.

Below, notice the significant forecast pressure anomalies on 2/22 across the West. This generates a colder, windier storm system(s).

Forecast pressure anomalies valid 2/22/2022, GFS interpretation.

Beyond 2/24

Data remains split and confidence is low.

One possible outcome involves high pressure rebuilding across the West through March 1.

Forecast pressure anomalies valid 3/1/2022, Euro interpretation.

Snow Forecast

2/17-2/26:

I added Purgatory and Breckenridge to the map.

Inches of total snow 2/17-2/26.

Forecast snow plume for Wolf Creek, CO:

Inches of total snow accumulation.

Northeast, 2/17-2/26:

At least 50% of this accumulation occurs with a potential storm system on 2/25-2/26.

Inches of total snow 2/17-2/26.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Snow forecast next 8 days

Tomer’s Take

  • Storm #1 is sliding through MT, WY, ID, UT, CO, NM on 2/16 ending early 2/17.
  • A dry 2-3 day break follows this storm system.
  • Storm #2 arrives 2/20-2/23 (possibly lingering into early 2/24).
  • Will it be followed by high pressure or another storm system into March1? Data is split and confidence is low.

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and both storm systems separated by high pressure.

Infrared satellite 2/16/2022 6am.

Storm #2

Storm #2 appears stronger and colder than storm #1. It’s the beneficiary of storm #1 dislodging a long-standing high pressure dome.

Snow forecasts are all over the board and confidence remains low where the bullseye(s) will end up. But, notice the significant forecast pressure anomalies valid 2/21-2/22.

Forecast pressure anomalies valid 2/22/2022, GFS interpretation.

Beyond Storm #2

What happens 2/24-3/1? Data is split and confidence is low. Here’s one possibility with high pressure rebuilding.

Forecast pressure anomalies valid 3/1/2022, Euro interpretation.

Snow Forecast

2/16-2/19:

Inches of total snow 2/16-2/19.

2/20-2/25:

Inches of total snow 2/20-2/25.

Steamboat snow plume forecast:

Inches of total snow accumulation.

Northeast, 2/16-2/25:

Inches of total snow 2/16-2/25.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video: