Tomer’s Take:

• Snow is likely 10/26 across the PNW, BC, ID, MT, WY, UT, and CO.
• Snow continues on 10/27 in CO and NM.
• Then high pressure rebuilds 10/28-10/31.
• A large trough moves back into the West 11/1-11/5. This would mean snow and colder weather for the ski areas.
• My NOV-DEC-JAN forecast is below.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the active storm track and low pressure systems lined-up. Orange/red = drier air aloft.

11/1-11/5

Looking down the road, the start of November looks active across the West. Below, forecast mid-atmosphere pressure anomalies valid 11/3/2022.

NOV-DEC-JAN Pattern

My forecast is active for the PNW, BC, Banff, MT, ID, WY, UT, and CO for NOV-DEC-JAN. This is in-line with my winter forecast.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite through Halloween.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) between 10/26-10/27.

Forecast snow totals (inches) between 11/1-11/4.

My forecast video:

Tomer’s Take:

• Residual snow continues across Colorado in the wake of storm #1.
• The next storm system sends waves of pre-storm snow into PNW, BC, Banff, UT, ID, MT on 10/24 and 10/25. Into CO on 10/25.
• The primary storm system arrives 10/26-10/27.

Residual snow continues to fall at Aspen/Snowmass.

Less accumulation occurred at the Tunnel/Divide and East, 2-6″ totals.

Big Sky, MT was one of my snow bullseyes and it verified with 12-24″.

Current Setup

The active pattern continues for the PNW, BC and Intermountain West. Water vapor satellite shows the storm systems lined-up over the Pacific. Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Next Storm System

Forecast mid-atmosphere pressure anomalies valid 10/26-10/27 show a large trough moving through the Intermountain West. Another low is sitting upstream in AK/BC.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 10/24-10/27.

Forecast Snow

Forecast snow totals (inches) between 10/24-10/28.

My forecast video:

Tomer’s Take:

• Storm #1 continues across the Intermountain West on 10/23-10/24.
• Strong wind gusts likely 40-105mph.
• Storm #2 arrives 10/26-10/28.
• Storm #2 is weaker than storm #1.

Alta, UT and Snowbird, UT are reporting 12-19″ of new snow in the last 24 hours. And, it’s not done yet.

Current Setup

Radar shows the rain/snow moving into Colorado from Utah at 7am 10/23/2022. Snow levels start around 9000ft then gradually drop to 6500ft. Notice the yellow returns on the scan. Some lightning is possible early in the evolution.

Forecast Wind Gusts

Strong wind gusts are likely above treeline in Colorado on 10/23/2022.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 6pm Sunday 10/23/2022.

Forecast radar/satellite valid 6am Monday 10/24/2022.

Storm #2

Forecast radar/satellite valid 6pm Wednesday 10/26/2022.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast total snowfall (inches) 10/23-10/24.

Forecast total snowfall (inches) 10/26-10/28.

My forecast video:

Tomer’s Take:

• First of two low pressure systems now moving south through the PNW into MT, ID, WY, UT and eventually CO between 10/22-10/24.
• Bullseyes: Big and Little Cottonwood Canyons, Brian Head, Big Sky, Bridger Bowl, Discovery, Western and SW Colorado mountain zones.
• Strong 40-100mph wind gusts 10/22-10/24 across the higher peaks.
• 2nd low pressure system 10/26-10/28.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows storm #1 diving south across the West. Storm #2 is about to be recaptured by the Polar Jet stream and arrives across the West 10/26-10/28.

Forecast Wind Gusts

The jet stream delivers strong wind gusts above treeline on Sunday 10/23.

Kings Peak, UT:

Forecast Snow

Forecast radar/satellite valid 6am Sunday 10/23/2022.

Forecast radar/satellite valid 6pm Sunday 10/23/2022.

Forecast snow totals (inches) between 10/22-10/24.

Forecast snow totals (inches) between 10/26-10/28.

My forecast video:

Tomer’s Take:

• Pattern change remains on-track 10/22-10/24.
• Possible 2nd storm system with snow 10/26-10/28.
• Beneficiaries: PNW, BC, Banff, MT, ID, WY, UT, CO.
• Strong wind gusts UT, CO, WY 40-90mph between 10/22-10/24.

Current Setup

The pattern change comes from the two large low pressure systems over the Pacific. They will dislodge the high pressure ridge 10/22-10/24 and possibly 10/26-10/28. Red/orange = drier air aloft.

Forecast Wind Gusts

Forecast

Forecast radar/satellite valid Saturday 10/22 @9pm.

Forecast radar/satellite valid Sunday 10/23 @6am.

Forecast radar/satellite valid Sunday 10/23 @9:15PM.

Forecast total snowfall (inches) between 10/20-10/24.

Possible 2nd Storm System

Valid 10/26-10/27. Notice the large trough across the West. Forecast mid-atmosphere pressure anomalies on 10/27.

My forecast video:

Tomer’s Take:

• Pattern change remains on-track 10/22-10/24.
• A second low pressure system possible 10/26-10/28.
• Beneficiaries: PNW, BC, Banff, MT, ID, CO, WY, UT.
• Strong wind gusts likely 40-95mph 10/22-10/25.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the big Western high pressure ridge and cut-off low pressure. This is called a Rex Block. What can change this? The parade of low pressure systems in the North Pacific running into Alaska/BC will help to dislodge this pattern setting the stage for Intermountain snow 10/22-10/24.

Pattern Change

The big high gets pushed west and is replaced by a big trough of low pressure 10/22-10/24. Below is the forecast mid-mountain atmospheric pressure anomalies valid 10/23.

Forecast Wind Gusts

Forecast

Forecast radar/satellite valid 10pm Saturday 10/22:

Forecast 9am Sunday 10/23:

Forecast 6pm Sunday 10/23:

Forecast snow totals by late 10/24:

My forecast video for 10/19:

Tomer’s Take:

• Weekend mountain snow remains on track.
• Timeline: 10/22-10/24.
• Beneficiaries: PNW, Banff, ID, MT, WY, UT, CO.
• Strong wind likely 40-85mph across the high peaks of UT, WY, CO.
• Air temps drop 10-25 degrees.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the parade of low pressure systems that will gradually erode/dislodge the large high pressure ridge. Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Pattern Change

Confidence continues to grow for a complete pattern change this weekend (10/22-10/24).

Below, here’s the forecast mid-atmosphere pressure anomalies valid 10/23.

Forecast Wind Gusts

Let’s first talk forecast wind gusts 10/22-10/24.

Forecast Snowfall

Here’s the future radar/satellite valid Saturday 10/22 @9pm.

Sunday 10/23 @5am:

Sunday 10/23 @6:15pm:

Forecast snow totals (inches) 10/18-10/24:

My forecast video for 10/18:

Tomer’s Take:

• The first significant mountain snow of the season is possible 10/22-10/24.
• Beneficiaries: PNW, Banff, MT, ID, UT, WY, CO.
• Air temps will run 10-20 degrees below normal.
• The jet stream delivers strong wind (40-80mph) to the higher peaks of UT, WY, MT and CO between 10/22-10/24. I’ll drill-down on this in future updates this week.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the parade of low pressure systems lined-up. These will gradually break down/dislodge the big high pressure ridge by 10/22-10/24.

Pattern Change

Confidence has grown for a large pattern change 10/22-10/24. Below, notice the buckling jet stream across the West and negative mid-atmospheric pressure anomalies. Pressure anomalies would run about 2 standard deviations below the 20-year average.

This would support colder temperatures and mountain snowfall.

Forecast

Future radar and satellite valid 10/23 at 10:15am. Blue = snow, Green = rain, Pink = mix.

Ballpark snow totals 10/17-10/24:

My full video forecast: