Snow forecast through 3/19

Tomer’s Take: The current atmospheric river (AR) continues through 3/11 then fades. The 2nd moderate to strong intensity AR surge occurs 3/13-3/15. Beyond 3/15 there is one additional storm systems but it’s not AR related.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the Pineapple Express.

Tahoe Rain/Snow Line

3/10: Up to 7,400′

3/11: Up to 6,900′

3/12: Up to 7,100′

3/13: Up to 7,100′

3/14: Up to 7,900′

3/15: Up to 6,800′

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 3/19. An area of low pressure is sliding across the Intermountain West.

Forecast AR

Below is the ECMWF Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) for the next 7-10 days.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite 3/10-3/15.

Forecast Totals

3/10-3/12:

3/13-3/19:

3/10-3/19 Grand Totals:

3/10-3/19 Grand Totals:

3/10-3/19:

VT/NH/ME Key Snow Dates:

3/13: Late 1″

3/14: 9″

3/15: 1″

3/19: 7″

21-Hour Epic on the Maroon Bells; Christopher Fish is chasing Andrew Hamilton for the Winter 14er Record

Mountain athlete Christopher Fisher is on the precipice of becoming only the 2nd known person to climb all Colorado 14ers in calendar Winter. The only other known person is Andrew Hamilton who did it 12/21/2017-3/16/2018 (84D13H57M).

In a testament to his character, Hamilton is now helping Fisher break his own record. The two stood atop Longs Peak on a dead calm day last week. And now, the two shared an “epic 21-hour day” on the Bells (3/8/2023).

I actually stumbled on Chris’s journey on accident while scrolling Instagram. I was immediately hooked.

Then my phone chimed. I received a text from Chris about weather forecasts for the remaining 14ers. Big wind was coming and now we’re dealing with two atmospheric river surges. Complications for sure but all part of the challenge.

Fast forward to the Bells. I could tell this was going to be serious. I stressed to Chris that 3/10-3/16 looked unsettled with a powerful jet and warm/heavy Pacific/Pineapple Express moisture overrunning CO. Chris is an amazing endurance athlete with the mindset of a Navy SEAL. He was ready to go at the drop of a hat.

The Bells had to be done before the 1-3 feet of new snow. And, keep in mind, the start of calendar Spring is Monday, March 20 at 3:24pm MT. Chris has 3 peaks remaining (Pyramid, Castle, Conundrum).

The photos from the Bells tells the story of two men who are maestros both physically and mentally.

You can follow both Christopher and Andrew on Instagram:

Chris

Andrew:

https://www.instagram.com/p/Cn0yNNIgw-J/

Pineapple Express, High Snow Levels, Deep Totals

Tomer’s Take: Two atmospheric river surges will push the rain/snow line to 7,000-8,500ft in the Sierra. The biggest snow totals occur above this level. Heavy overrun snowfall occurs in UT, CO, WY.

Tahoe Rain/Snow Line

3/9: Up to 8500ft

3/10: Up to 8000ft

3/11: Up to 7100ft

3/12: Up to 7200ft

3/13: Up to 8000ft

3/14: Up to 7100ft

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the Pineapple Express. Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 3/11. The jet W-E orientation establishes the Pineapple Express reaching all the way west to Hawaii.

Atmospheric River

Forecast GEFS Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) next 10 days. Notice the two moderate to strong intensity surges.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 3/9-3/14:

Kirkwood, CA

3/9: Late 13″

3/10: 30-40″

3/11: 10-12″

3/12: 6″+

3/13: 20″

3/14: 20-30″

Forecast Totals

3/9-3/11:

3/12-3/18:

3/9-3/18:

3/9-3/18:

3/9-3/18:

3/9-3/18:

3/9-3/18:

VT/NH/ME Key Snow Dates:

3/13: Late 6″

3/14: 10-12″

3/15: 1-2″

Snow forecast through 3/17; Pineapple Express

Tomer’s Take: Big snow totals are likely through 3/17 with two different moderate to strong intensity atmospheric river surges. The Northeast gets a coastal storm system with heavy snow accumulation 3/13-3/15.

Season Totals So Far:

My Forecast: High chance that Palisades Tahoe overtakes Alta and Brighton by 3/18.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows an organizing Atmospheric River pattern.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 3/11. Notice the west to east orientation. This is the Pineapple Express with moisture transport from Hawaii to California.

Palisades Tahoe

3/8: 4″

3/9: Late 8″

3/10: 24″+

3/11: 12″

3/12: 6″

3/13: 20″+

3/14: 6-8″

3/15: 12″

3/17: 4″

Forecast Totals

3/8-3/10:

3/11-3/17:

3/8-3/17:

3/8-3/17:

3/8-3/17:

VT/NH/ME Key Snow Dates:

3/13: Late 6″

3/14: 10-12″+

3/15: 1-2″

Two Atmospheric River Surges through 3/16

Tomer’s Take: Two moderate to strong intensity atmospheric river (AR) surges are possible through 3/16 generating deep snow bullseyes.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows an active northern jet branch loaded with areas of low pressure.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 3/11. The Pineapple Express in full swing. The flow nails the Sierra like a firehose.

Atmospheric River Foreast

Below is the ECMWF Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) forecast for the Central CA Coast. Notice two surges: Late 3/9 through 3/12, and late 3/13 though 3/14.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 3/7-3/11.

Kirkwood, CA

3/7: 3″

3/8: 5″

3/9: 12″+

3/10: 25-30″+

3/11: 12″

3/12: 5″

3/14: 15-20″

3/15: 2″

Brighton, UT

3/7: 2″

3/8: 3″

3/10: 6-8″

3/11: 4″

3/12: 4″

3/14: 4″

3/15: 20″+

3/16: 6″

Forecast Totals

3/7-3/9:

3/10-3/16:

3/7-3/16:

Central and Northern CO Mountains Grand Totals.

3/7-3/16:

Wasatch Grand Totals.

3/7-3/16:

Sierra Grand Totals.

3/7-3/16:

VT/NH/ME Key Snow Dates:

3/7: 1″

3/8: 1″

3/9: 1″

3/14: 12″

3/15: 10″

3/16: 2″

Atmospheric River and big totals through 3/15

Tomer’s Take: Deep snow bullseyes are likely through 3/15 with a return of a moderate (to strong) atmospheric river 3/10-3/12. 9-day grand totals of 80-90 inches across the Sierra, and 36-40 inches across parts of the Wasatch.

Kirkwood is reporting 19 inches in the last 24 hours, and 34 inches in 48 hours.

Palisades Tahoe is reporting 11 inches in the last 24 hours, and 21 inches in 48 hours.

Alta is reporting 17 inches in the last 24 hours, and 40 inches in the 48 hours.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 3/11. The orientation of the jet is like a firehose of moisture for the Sierra.

Atmospheric River Forecast

Below is the ECMWF Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT). Notice the moderate (to possibly strong) intensity AR forecast.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 3/6-3/11.

Palisades Tahoe, CA

3/6: 8″

3/7: 3″

3/8: 10″

3/9: Late 6″

3/10: 30″

3/11: 6″

3/12: 6″

3/13: 12″

3/14: 1″

3/15: 12″

Alta, UT

3/6″ 8″

3/7: 5″

3/8: 5″

3/9: 1″

3/10: 12″

3/11: 12″

3/13: 1:

3/14: 1″

3/15: 1″

Forecast Totals

3/6-3/8:

3/9-3/15:

3/6-3/15:

3/6-3/15:

3/6-3/15:

3/6-3/15:

Atmospheric River might return

Tomer’s Take: Three storm systems are lined-up for the West through 3/14. Plus, a weak to moderate intensity atmospheric river (AR) is possible 3/10-3/12 with heavy snow accumulation. My snow bullseyes are the Sierra and Wasatch.

Kirkwood is reporting 15″ in the last 24 hours.

Mammoth Mountain is reporting 12-14″ in the last 24 hours.

Alta, UT is reporting 26″ in the last 24 hours. Season total is now 619″!

My mountain weather forecast video 3/5:

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 3/11. Notice the powerful jet stream slamming into the Sierra. This is a possible atmospheric river setup.

Atmospheric River

Below is the ECMWF Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) forecast for the Central CA Coast. Notice the weak to moderate intensity peak 3/10-3/12. It’s not a lock yet but possible.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 3/5-3/9.

Forecast Totals

3/5-3/7:

3/8-3/14:

3/5-3/14:

3/5-3/14:

3/5-3/14:

Three storm systems through 3/13

Tomer’s Take: The jet stays active for the West through 3/13 with three different storm systems.

My mountain weather forecast video 3/13:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a large trough of low pressure hitting the West Coast with 2-3 feet of snow for the Sierra and heavy accumulation for the Wasatch Front.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 3/13. Pattern appears benign for the Intermountain West (in-between) with next trough sitting over the Pacific.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 3/4-3/9.

Solitude, UT

3/4: Late 4-5″

3/5: 6″

3/6: 10″

3/7: 5″

3/8: 1″

3/9: 1″

3/11: 4″

Kirkwood, CA

3/4: PM 8″

3/5: 15″

3/6: 6″

3/7: 2″

3/8: 4″

3/10: 13″

3/11: 6″

3/13: 1″

Forecast Totals

3/4-3/6:

3/7-3/13:

3/4-3/13:

3/4-3/13:

3/4-3/13.

VT/NH/ME Key Snow Dates:

3/4: 10-14″

3/5: 1″

3/7: 1″

3/9: 1″

Snow forecast through 3/12

Tomer’s Take: Two storm systems will slide across the West through 3/12. I’m also forecasting excellent snow for the Northeast.

Brighton, UT officially cracked 600″! Now sitting at 601″ for the season so far.

Alta, UT is not far behind at 589″.

Palisade Tahoe is currently at 539″.

Solitude, UT is currently at 532″.

Mammoth Mountain, CA is currently at 525″ at the Base and over 600″ at the Summit.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows two additional areas of low pressure lined-up across the north Pacific and one over Hawaii riding the southern jet. Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 3/12. A trough of low pressure is setup over the West Coast and moving east.

Alta, UT

3/3: 2″

3/4: 6″

3/5: 6-8″

3/6: 6″

3/7: 1″

Forecast Totals

3/3-3/5:

3/6-3/12:

3/3-3/12:

3/3-3/12:

3/3-3/12:

VT/NH/ME Key Snow Dates:

3/2: Late 1″

3/3: 10-12″

3/7: 3-4″

3/8: 1″

3/9: 1″

3/11: 10-12″
3/12: 1″

Pattern through mid March

Tomer’s Take: I’m forecasting 1-2 additional storm systems for the West through 3/11. The pattern 3/11 through 3/16 is less active but might have lingering snow for parts of WY, MT, UT, and CO. The Northeast gets heavy snow on 3/4.

Season Totals so far:

The race to 600″ is on!

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the ABQ low sliding east and two additional areas of low pressure lined-up over the Pacific.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream 3/9. Notice the deep trough swinging through the Intermountain West.

Forecast Pattern Mid March

Forecast mid-atmospheric pressure anomalies on 3/16 favor unsettled weather for MT, WY, UT, CO and most of the Northeast.

Sun Valley, ID

3/3: 1″

3/4: 2″

3/5: 3″

3/6: 1″

3/7: 1″

Killington, VT

3/2: 1″

3/3: Late 1″

3/4: 10″

3/5: 1″

3/7: 2″

3/11: 2″

Steamboat, CO

3/3: 4″

3/5: 6-8″

3/6: 6″

3/7: 2″

3/8: 2″

Forecast Totals

3/2-3/4:

3/5-3/11:

3/2-3/11:

3/2-3/11:

3/2-3/11: