Tag: California

Winter Forecast 2023-2024

Tomer’s Take: A Strong El Nino is likely with a screaming Subtropical Jet across the Southern Tier by January, February, March, April, and May 2024. I believe we’ll see a 30% El Nino Modoki contribution. This puts several major ski resorts on ‘The Bubble’. Atmospheric River (AR) setups are likely along with large East Coast […]

Update: Labor Day Weekend Mountain Forecast

Tomer’s Take: A dip in the jet, trough of low pressure, and small surge of Monsoon moisture remains in my forecast for the West between 9/1-9/5. I say 9/5 now because there might be one additional small area of low pressure riding the coattails. This pattern delivers cooler mountain temps and rain/snow/thunderstorms. Snow accumulation appears […]

Curveballs: Labor Day Weekend Mountain Forecast and Beyond

Tomer’s Take: In my last update, I highlighted an active weather pattern for Labor Day Weekend and early September across the Intermountain West. The moisture will come in two waves, and you might even say curveballs. The first includes the remnants of a tropical system plus Monsoonal moisture 8/25-8/27, and a Monsoonal surge 8/31-9/2. Beyond […]

Hilary could hammer the Western High Peaks with snow and wind

Tomer’s Take: The remnants of Hurricane Hilary could impact many of the high peaks across the West 8/20-8/21 with strong wind and precipitation including very heavy snow on some California 14ers. This assumes the storm system stays on track. Below, the visible satellite view from GOES-18 shows Hurricane Hilary. I drew on the projected path. […]

What’s Next? End of August and September Forecast Looks Active

Tomer’s Take: Persistent trough is king out West, and this might foreshadow what to expect this El Nino driven Winter. The seasonal Monsoon was three weeks late and intensity was disrupted. It was a victim of larger scale pattern. Lower atmospheric pressures dominate the West Coast through the end of August and then transition into […]

Update: Ultra Season – Managing the Monsoon

Tomer’s Take: The Monsoon is late and weak. Moisture is slowly increasing across the desert southwest. Moisture increases in Colorado on 7/26 and ramps up into the first week of August. AZ, NM, NV, WY, UT, CO can all expect an increase in thunderstorms. The biggest Monsoon surge of the season so far is on […]

El Nino is here: What to expect across the West

Tomer’s Take: El Nino has arrived. The triple-dip La Nina is over. Bottom line, El Nino is here through Winter 2024. The La Nina for a generation The 2022-2023 La Nina delivered big time to CA, UT, and CO. In fact, it overdelivered. It overperformed in ways not seen in historical records. It was a […]

Rain totals last 30 days; What’s next?

Tomer’s Take: Parts of Colorado are soaked after record rainfall totals over the last 30 days. Some places are pushing a foot of rainfall. The pattern stays wetter than normal through June 15 then returns to a “normal” precipitation pattern after June 15 through June 30. Denver Front Range Accumulated precipitation May 1 – June […]

Update: Wet June Forecast

Tomer’s Take: May and now June are wetter than normal across parts of the West. I’m forecasting wetter than normal conditions through June 15 then the pattern gradually returns to ‘normal’ precipitation late June. The effects are more pronounced June 20-30 just before the seasonal Monsoon. Precipitation Last 30 Days Percentage of average valid 5/5-6/3: […]

Update: June Looks Wet

Tomer’s Take: I’m forecasting above normal early to mid June precipitation for most of the West with a powerful Subtropical Jet Stream. But, what above mid to late June? Data points to drier air for a few states including CO, WY, NM, AZ. Rich Flow with Subtropical Jet Valid 6/10: This is not normal for […]