Category: Trail Running

Pattern through end of April

Tomer’s Take: Freezing levels fall today (4/13) through 4/15 then start rising again with warmer air. Storm track favors PNW/BC/Northern Tier through 4/24 then uncertainty. One more photo of the dirty snowpack in Colorado…it’s a good one from Nick Green while skiing in Aspen, CO. Thanks Nick! My blog post yesterday explains this phenomena. Forecast […]

Dirty snow, late April pattern, and snow forecast through 4/21

A high wind event 4/3-4/4 deposited desert dust on Colorado’s snowpack. This seems to occur now every Spring. Dirty snow accelerates the melting of the snowpack by lowering albedo. I co-authored a peer-reviewed article on Colorado’s Dirty Snowpack in 2010. Below, MODIS visible satellite shows the brown tint to the snowpack in some places. Dust […]

Pattern through 4/20

Tomer’s Take: The storm track favors the PNW/BC/Northern Tier. One storm system drags a cold front with snow through UT, WY, CO, MT 4/12-4/14. Pattern shifts back to the PNW/BC through 4/20. March 2023 Pattern Looking back, March 2023 was a giant for Utah with record precipitation (dark green). In Colorado, the trend is clear. […]

Western pattern shift; Spring skiing

Tomer’s Take: The Western storm track continues shifting north favoring the PNW/BC/Northern Tier. The longer range jet stream is low velocity with high pressure ridging. Spring skiing inbound. My forecast video 4/8: Current Setup Water vapor satellite shows an area of low pressure hitting the PNW/BC/Northern Tier. This is the dominate flow. Forecast Pattern Forecast […]

21-Hour Epic on the Maroon Bells; Christopher Fish is chasing Andrew Hamilton for the Winter 14er Record

Mountain athlete Christopher Fisher is on the precipice of becoming only the 2nd known person to climb all Colorado 14ers in calendar Winter. The only other known person is Andrew Hamilton who did it 12/21/2017-3/16/2018 (84D13H57M). In a testament to his character, Hamilton is now helping Fisher break his own record. The two stood atop […]

10/21 update: Weekend mountain snow

Tomer’s Take: Pattern change underway. High pressure becomes dislodged. Two low pressure systems lined-up: 10/22-10/24 and 10/26-10/28. Bullseyes: Utah’s Wasatch especially Little Cottonwood, Colorado’s Western/Southwest mountains including Crested Butte, Purgatory, Silverton and Wolf Creek, Montana’s Big Sky and Bridger Bowl. Current Setup The long-standing high pressure ridge becomes dislodged and replaced by both low pressure […]

When will it snow, part 2

Tomer’s Take: Pattern change remains possible on/after 10/23 across the West. Beneficiaries: CO, UT, WY, ID, MT, PNW, Banff. Lower atmospheric pressures replace high pressure ridge. Snow and colder temps = net result. If this verifies it would be the first significant snowfall of the season for much of the Intermountain West. Current Setup Infrared […]

When will it snow?

Tomer’s Take: A large Western ridge of high pressure remains in control through 10/22. A pattern change is possible on/after 10/23. A large dip in the jet stream and lower atmospheric pressures might replace the large Western high pressure ridge. This pattern change might run 10/23-10/27. Net result: snow and colder temps for UT, CO, […]

Golden days of October

Tomer’s take: High pressure remains in control of the West. Mid-atmosphere pressure readings are running 2-3 standard deviations above (higher) the 20-year average. This pattern mirrors the Fall of 2021-2022. When will this change? Some data suggests 10/23. Current Setup Infrared satellite shows the large ridge of high pressure sitting over the Pacific/PNW/West. Crystal clear […]

The snow that wasn’t

Tomer’s Take: Significant snow in Colorado appeared likely based on data a few days ago. Now, that possibility has vanished. Why? It goes to what I talked about in my Winter Forecast: The North Pacific Heat Wave. This warmer than normal ocean water tends to anchor a large dome of high pressure over the PNW/West […]