Category: Snow

Remainder of August outlook in Colorado

Tomer’s Take: In Colorado, the next Monsoon surge arrives 8/25-8/26. It’s a small to medium intensity surge. Snow is again possible on the 14ers. Telluride Mountain Run 8/27. Forecast below. Looking ahead, the Monsoon gradually fades after 8/26 but still remains present at a low intensity until 8/31. After 8/31, data suggest the Monsoon continues […]

Intermittent Monsoon this week in Colorado

Tomer’s Take: Surge continues 8/22 then a break 8/23-8/24. Next surge is small on 8/25-8/26. Snow is possible on the 14ers with each surge. Telluride Mountain Run 8/27 forecast is below. Looking ahead, the Monsoon turns much weaker by the end of August. Seasonal Shift Eric Holle posted this video on Facebook of snow on […]

Monsoon arrives and big event forecast update

Tomer’s Take: Peak surge underway. The first surge of Monsoon moisture combined with upper level jet support generated a major hailstorm in downtown Estes Park. Golfball sized hail (or larger) fell just outside Fort Collins in Wellington, Severance, and around Timnath. 1-3 inches of rainfall with a few different lines of thunderstorms accumulated around Fort […]

Deep snow in the Sangre De Cristo’s

Tomer’s Take: Total maximum new snow between 5/20-5/25 above treeline in the Sangre De Cristo’s likely ranged from 1-4 feet. Amounts below treeline were likely on the low end of this range with melting and compaction. The biggest totals might favor East facing slopes. SWE maxed out at 4.1″ over Hayden Pass and 3.8″ at […]

Reflections on 5/20-5/21 Snowstorm

Tomer’s Take: Mountain and Foothill totals ranged from 1 to 2.5ft. This is in-line with forecast amounts. Ratios ranged from 10:1 to 14:1. That made 12:1 the average storm ratio, which is low for many Colorado mountain zones. Mid-winter ratios run 14:1 or higher. Snow density was high with SWE ranging from 1″ to 2.7″. […]

Colorado snow bullseye

Tomer’s Take: A major late May snowstorm is on track with the biggest overall totals falling across Colorado’s Foothills and Continental Divide above 6,000ft. This cold front will first slide south through MT and WY with minor snow accumulation. Strong wind precedes this storm system. Current Setup Infrared satellite shows the storm track. The low […]

Strong May cold front

Tomer’s Take: A strong cold front remains on track for MT, WY, and CO between 5/19-5/20. Forecast atmospheric pressure anomalies run 2-3 standard deviations below the 30-year average. The bulk of snow falls in SW MT and on CO’s Continental Divide-East. Yellowstone could see 1″ of accumulation. Big Sky and Cooke City could see several […]

Snow chance for Colorado, Wyoming, Montana

Tomer’s Take: A strong late-season dip in the jet stream could deliver snow 5/19-5/20 to MT, WY, and CO. Snow levels fall significantly to the valley floor in some locations. Frost/Freeze is also possible. Forecast atmospheric pressure anomalies could run 2-3 standard deviations from the 30-year average. Strong wind 30-80mph ahead of this storm system. […]

Pattern through end of May

Tomer’s Take: High pressure rebuilds across the West 5/13-5/18. The storm track shifts into the PNW/B.C. Then pressures might drop with a large trough and dip in the jet stream 5/19-5/25. Beyond 5/25? High pressure might rebuild. What are the possible effects of a large trough 5/19-5/25? Colder than normal temps, mountain snowfall, and strong […]

Rollercoaster out West; Strongest May La Nina since 2000

Tomer’s Take: Latest La Nina May readings show -1.2C water temp anomalies (NINO 3.4 region). This is the strongest May La Nina since 2000. This means La Nina is driving the overall Western pattern. Western trough stays in place through 5/13 then higher pressures rebuild. What about the rest of May? Lower pressures could move […]