Category: Meteorology

Strong May cold front

Tomer’s Take: A strong cold front remains on track for MT, WY, and CO between 5/19-5/20. Forecast atmospheric pressure anomalies run 2-3 standard deviations below the 30-year average. The bulk of snow falls in SW MT and on CO’s Continental Divide-East. Yellowstone could see 1″ of accumulation. Big Sky and Cooke City could see several […]

Snow chance for Colorado, Wyoming, Montana

Tomer’s Take: A strong late-season dip in the jet stream could deliver snow 5/19-5/20 to MT, WY, and CO. Snow levels fall significantly to the valley floor in some locations. Frost/Freeze is also possible. Forecast atmospheric pressure anomalies could run 2-3 standard deviations from the 30-year average. Strong wind 30-80mph ahead of this storm system. […]

Pattern through end of May

Tomer’s Take: High pressure rebuilds across the West 5/13-5/18. The storm track shifts into the PNW/B.C. Then pressures might drop with a large trough and dip in the jet stream 5/19-5/25. Beyond 5/25? High pressure might rebuild. What are the possible effects of a large trough 5/19-5/25? Colder than normal temps, mountain snowfall, and strong […]

Rollercoaster out West; Strongest May La Nina since 2000

Tomer’s Take: Latest La Nina May readings show -1.2C water temp anomalies (NINO 3.4 region). This is the strongest May La Nina since 2000. This means La Nina is driving the overall Western pattern. Western trough stays in place through 5/13 then higher pressures rebuild. What about the rest of May? Lower pressures could move […]

Windy pattern returns 5/7-5/15

Tomer’s Take: A powerful jet stream returns to the West through 5/15. It resembles April. The future storm track keeps the bulk of precipitation north of Colorado through 5/15. This leaves Colorado and much of the Intermountain West in a windy pattern. Blowing dust is again possible. The best chances for snow stays in northern […]

Dirty snowpack: Most dust since 2009?

Tomer’s Take: The dust storm on 4/22 was one for the books. Dust was deposited on most of the high mountain snowpack – especially the Southern Mountains. This could be the most significant layer of dust since 2009. Here’s a look back at 2009 in a paper I co-authored. Dr. McKenzie Skiles at the University […]

Strong wind returns 5/8-5/15

Tomer’s Take: A minor storm system is spinning through the Intermountain West this morning with rain and snow. A larger storm system and dip in the jet stream is waiting in the Gulf of Alaska. This will drive the pattern across the West between 5/8-5/15. Some places get snow while others get mainly wind. The […]

Snow forecast next 8 days

Tomer’s Take: La Nina continues to anchor the pattern across the West through mid-May. It’s the strongest April/May La Nina since 1999. I’m expecting above normal levels of wind, snow, and rain. Across the Intermountain West, a larger dip in the jet stream and trough of low pressure still possible 5/8-5/13. Conditions might ease the […]

Strongest April/May La Nina since 1999

Tomer’s Take: Nino 3.4 region water temps are currently -1.1C. That’s the coldest water temp in this region since 1999. This anchors the atmosphere and the current pattern continues through May. I’m forecasting an active month of May across the Intermountain West with above normal amounts of rain, snow, and wind. The jet stream is […]