Tomer’s Take: A dip in the jet stream, trough of low pressure, and small surge of Monsoonal moisture hits the Intermountain West between 9/1-9/4 then the pattern dries out. Who’s included? AZ, UT, NV, CO, WY, ID, MT. Precipitation will include rain, snow, and thunderstorms. Storm System Below is forecast jet stream level valid 9/2-9/3. […]
Category: Meteorology
Curveballs: Labor Day Weekend Mountain Forecast and Beyond
Tomer’s Take: In my last update, I highlighted an active weather pattern for Labor Day Weekend and early September across the Intermountain West. The moisture will come in two waves, and you might even say curveballs. The first includes the remnants of a tropical system plus Monsoonal moisture 8/25-8/27, and a Monsoonal surge 8/31-9/2. Beyond […]
Hilary could hammer the Western High Peaks with snow and wind
Tomer’s Take: The remnants of Hurricane Hilary could impact many of the high peaks across the West 8/20-8/21 with strong wind and precipitation including very heavy snow on some California 14ers. This assumes the storm system stays on track. Below, the visible satellite view from GOES-18 shows Hurricane Hilary. I drew on the projected path. […]
What’s Next? End of August and September Forecast Looks Active
Tomer’s Take: Persistent trough is king out West, and this might foreshadow what to expect this El Nino driven Winter. The seasonal Monsoon was three weeks late and intensity was disrupted. It was a victim of larger scale pattern. Lower atmospheric pressures dominate the West Coast through the end of August and then transition into […]
Update: Ultra Season – Managing the Monsoon
Tomer’s Take: The Monsoon is late and weak. Moisture is slowly increasing across the desert southwest. Moisture increases in Colorado on 7/26 and ramps up into the first week of August. AZ, NM, NV, WY, UT, CO can all expect an increase in thunderstorms. The biggest Monsoon surge of the season so far is on […]
Ultra Season – Managing the Monsoon, Hardrock 100
Tomer’s Take: Records will break. New FKT’s will be set. Athletes are currently attempting to make history. They also have to manage the weather. Monsoon Season Normally, Monsoon Season in Colorado runs July 1 – August 31. Atmospheric winds shift southerly. This opens the door for moisture transport from the Gulf and Pacific. This new […]
Where’s the Monsoon?
Tomer’s Take: We’re still waiting on the arrival the Seasonal Monsoon. It remains blocked by a high pressure dome and strong Subtropical Jet Stream. This jet is also generating strong wind on many high peaks across the West. Data suggest a possible Monsoon arrival after 7/20, but confidence is low. Normally, Monsoon Season runs July […]
Monsoon Update & 4th of July Mountain Forecast
Tomer’s Take: Monsoon Season normally runs July-August across the Rockies. I’m forecasting a late start. Data suggest it might not start until after 7/10. A large dome of high pressure is currently blocking the flow. But, even without Monsoon moisture, afternoon thunderstorms are still possible over higher terrain from daytime heating and fronts racing through. […]
Pattern through July 1; Monsoon Season Preview
Tomer’s Take: The pattern is transitioning across the West. The abnormally wet pattern is moving out while more normal, warmer weather is moving in. This will introduce a drier period for the West until Monsoon Season kicks in. My opinion is that Monsoon Season will start about 1-2 weeks behind schedule. Normal Monsoon Season runs […]
Weekend Mountain Weather, Snow for PNW, July 1 Forecast
Tomer’s Take: An abnormally wet June continues through this weekend across parts of the West with widespread afternoon rain/thunderstorms. A large trough moves into the PNW 6/17-6/21 with high wind and snow for the high Cascades and Volcanoes. Looking down the road, drier weather moves into the West late June through early July with a […]