Tomer’s Take: This is an afternoon update with new numbers for the Northeast. It assumes a stronger storm system. Current Setup Infrared/visible satellite shows the storm track, Western high pressure ridge, and amplifying low pressure systems that will eventually displace the high. Afternoon Update: New Numbers for East This assumes a stronger East Coast storm […]
Category: Forecasting
East/West see-saw through Thanksgiving
Tomer’s Take: Current Setup Infrared satellite shows the robust ridge over the PNW/BC/AK and ridge amplifiers to its West over the NPAC. This also creates the see-saw jet pattern with large trough over the East. Thanksgiving Pattern High pressure remains strong through 11/24 with jet axis bending far north into Canada. This leaves most of […]
Thanksgiving Pattern: East and West
Tomer’s Take: Current Setup Infrared satellite shows the storm track, fast N-S jet flow with cold front, and robust PNW high pressure ridge. Thanksgiving Pattern Forecast jet stream flow on Thanksgiving 11/24 shows the shifting pattern with the jet axis bending far to the north. Some moisture feeds into the PNW/BC/Banff. The trend is for […]
Snow forecast through Thanksgiving
Tomer’s Take: Current Setup Infrared satellite shows the storm track, robust Eastern Pacific high pressure ridge, and strong cold front racing through MT, WY, CO on a fast N-S jet. Thanksgiving Pattern Shift Forecast jet flow valid 11/18 shows the robust PNW high pressure ridge and fast N-S jet flow through MT, WY, CO. Forecast […]
Snow forecast next 8 days
Tomer’s Take: No big storm cycles for the West until on/after 11/21. Current pattern includes high pressure ridge over PNW/BC/CA through 11/20. This is an anomalously strong Eastern Pacific high pressure ridge. Fast N-S jet flow favors Banff, MT, WY, CO, NM for light snow accumulation with cold fronts. Next front races north to south […]
Pattern shift on/after 11-21
Tomer’s Take: PNW/Western BC/CA stay mostly dry through 11/20 with high pressure ridge. Then the pattern shifts on/after 11/21 as the high gets dislodged and lower pressures move into the PNW/BC with a powerful jet. Between 11/14-11/21 the Intermountain West stays active with fast-moving north to south cold fronts but only light snow accumulations. This […]
Who’s favored this week for best snow?
Tomer’s Take: There are no big storm cycles on the immediate horizon for the West. This week favors the Intermountain West including MT, WY, CO, NM. Total snowfall next 8 days is 10″ or less for all resorts in this grouping. Beyond 11/20, the PNW turns more active as high pressure slides east and a […]
West pattern transition; What about late November?
Tomer’s Take: Pattern transition underway for the West. Currently a weak low is sliding south from the PNW to CA. It’s headed to NM and southern CO as a southern track low through 11/14. This low opens the door for a large trough to develop across the Intermountain West (MT, WY, CO) with a stiff […]
Snow forecast next 8 days
Tomer’s Take: Pattern is now in transition. A low slides down the West Coast but it weakens and dries up with only light mountain snow accumulation. This low becomes a weak southern track low that slides through the southern tier of the Rockies through 11/14. Behind it the pattern changes quickly to a high pressure […]
Mid November Pattern
Tomer’s Take: The final storm in the storm cycle is exiting CO/WY. What’s next? High pressure rebuilds briefly then a large, drier, colder trough develops across the West. This results in only light snow accumulations 11/10-11/17. Current Setup Infrared satellite shows the final storm system departing CO/WY and new storm systems upstream. The line-up looks […]