Tomer’s Take: Persistent trough is king out West, and this might foreshadow what to expect this El Nino driven Winter. The seasonal Monsoon was three weeks late and intensity was disrupted. It was a victim of larger scale pattern. Lower atmospheric pressures dominate the West Coast through the end of August and then transition into […]
Category: Peak Bagging
Update: Ultra Season – Managing the Monsoon
Tomer’s Take: The Monsoon is late and weak. Moisture is slowly increasing across the desert southwest. Moisture increases in Colorado on 7/26 and ramps up into the first week of August. AZ, NM, NV, WY, UT, CO can all expect an increase in thunderstorms. The biggest Monsoon surge of the season so far is on […]
Ultra Season – Managing the Monsoon, Hardrock 100
Tomer’s Take: Records will break. New FKT’s will be set. Athletes are currently attempting to make history. They also have to manage the weather. Monsoon Season Normally, Monsoon Season in Colorado runs July 1 – August 31. Atmospheric winds shift southerly. This opens the door for moisture transport from the Gulf and Pacific. This new […]
Where’s the Monsoon?
Tomer’s Take: We’re still waiting on the arrival the Seasonal Monsoon. It remains blocked by a high pressure dome and strong Subtropical Jet Stream. This jet is also generating strong wind on many high peaks across the West. Data suggest a possible Monsoon arrival after 7/20, but confidence is low. Normally, Monsoon Season runs July […]
Monsoon Update & 4th of July Mountain Forecast
Tomer’s Take: Monsoon Season normally runs July-August across the Rockies. I’m forecasting a late start. Data suggest it might not start until after 7/10. A large dome of high pressure is currently blocking the flow. But, even without Monsoon moisture, afternoon thunderstorms are still possible over higher terrain from daytime heating and fronts racing through. […]
Pattern through July 1; Monsoon Season Preview
Tomer’s Take: The pattern is transitioning across the West. The abnormally wet pattern is moving out while more normal, warmer weather is moving in. This will introduce a drier period for the West until Monsoon Season kicks in. My opinion is that Monsoon Season will start about 1-2 weeks behind schedule. Normal Monsoon Season runs […]
Weekend Mountain Weather, Snow for PNW, July 1 Forecast
Tomer’s Take: An abnormally wet June continues through this weekend across parts of the West with widespread afternoon rain/thunderstorms. A large trough moves into the PNW 6/17-6/21 with high wind and snow for the high Cascades and Volcanoes. Looking down the road, drier weather moves into the West late June through early July with a […]
El Nino is here: What to expect across the West
Tomer’s Take: El Nino has arrived. The triple-dip La Nina is over. Bottom line, El Nino is here through Winter 2024. The La Nina for a generation The 2022-2023 La Nina delivered big time to CA, UT, and CO. In fact, it overdelivered. It overperformed in ways not seen in historical records. It was a […]
Rain totals last 30 days; What’s next?
Tomer’s Take: Parts of Colorado are soaked after record rainfall totals over the last 30 days. Some places are pushing a foot of rainfall. The pattern stays wetter than normal through June 15 then returns to a “normal” precipitation pattern after June 15 through June 30. Denver Front Range Accumulated precipitation May 1 – June […]
Update: Wet June Forecast
Tomer’s Take: May and now June are wetter than normal across parts of the West. I’m forecasting wetter than normal conditions through June 15 then the pattern gradually returns to ‘normal’ precipitation late June. The effects are more pronounced June 20-30 just before the seasonal Monsoon. Precipitation Last 30 Days Percentage of average valid 5/5-6/3: […]