Tomer’s Take

• The storm track shifts south on/after 3/4 from the PNW/B.C. into MT, WY, UT, ID, CO, NM.
• This sets up a 9-day window with 3 different storm systems and major snow grand totals.
• The first two storm systems are back-to-back 3/4-3/7. The 3rd storm system arrives 3/9-3/10.
• The first storm system on 3/4-3/5 is the warmest of the three.
• The Northeast can expect a few different storm systems. The initial storm system on 3/6 is warm but the final two storm systems next week look colder with heavier snow potential.

Infrared satellite shows the dipping jet stream building across the West. This will set the stage for 3 different storm systems across the Intermountain West over the next 9 days. The southern jet branch might also contribute.

3rd Storm System

The final storm system of this cycle hits the Intermountain West between 3/9-3/10. Below, notice the forecast pressure anomalies across the West suggesting cold and snow.

Snow Forecast

3/3-3/7:

3/8-3/12:

Northeast, 3/3-3/12:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• Storm track continues to favor Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, northern Idaho, and northwest Montana through 3/3.
• Snow levels are running high at times. Yesterday the rain/snow line was around 8,000ft. Today is drops about 1,000 feet and then drops another 1,000 feet on Wednesday.
• The storm track shifts south after 3/3 and hits southern ID, southern MT, CA, UT, CO, WY, NM.
• Snow and colder temps are likely 3/4 through 3/12. This storm cycle is not as cold as last week.

Infrared satellite shows the storm track. This is technically a weak atmospheric river setup for the PNW/B.C./northern ID/northwest MT.

Pattern through 3/12

The pattern remains active across the West through 3/12 then it’s unclear what occurs. Below, notice the forecast pressure anomalies valid 3/9.

Snow Forecast

3/1-3/3:

3/4-3/10:

Northeast, 3/1-3/10:

Tomer’s Take

• The jet stream currently favors the Pacific Northwest (PNW), British Columbia, northern Idaho, and northwest Montana through 3/3. This is technically a weak atmospheric river setup. Mount Rainier could see 3-4 feet of snow at/above Muir with 70mph gusts.
• Snow levels are running high. Up to 8,000ft in some cases. Snow levels will gradually lower Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
• Then the storm track gradually shifts south after 3/3 and hits the Intermountain West.
• A dipping jet stream and lower pressure anomalies continue to hit the Intermountain West on/after 3/3 through 3/10. This could translate into colder and snowier conditions.

Water vapor satellite shows the storm track favoring the PNW/B.C./Northern Tier. Orange/red = drier air aloft.

March 3-10

A large trough of low pressure appears to dominate the West/Intermountain West 3/3-3/10. Below, notice the forecast pressure anomalies valid 3/8/2022.

Will this stormy pattern last beyond 3/10? Some data suggest it lasts through 3/12.

Snow Forecast

2/28-3/3:

3/4-3/9:

Northeast, 2/28-3/9:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• Storm track shifts north 2/26-3/2 favoring the Pacific Northwest (PNW), British Columbia (B.C.), northern ID, and northwest MT.
• Then it gradually shifts south on/after 3/3 to hit the Intermountain West.
• Said another way, expect a quiet period across the Intermountain West until 3/3 or later.

I was out backcountry skiing this morning in the Central Mountains of Colorado on the Divide. Air temps were running -10 to -15F. Wind was generally under 20mph. Snow was slow.

Here’s my latest mountain weather forecast video:

2/26-2/28. My snow forecast beyond 2/28 is included in the above video.

Tomer’s Take

• Heavy snow continues in the Northeast on 2/25. About a foot of accumulation in VT, NH, ME, MA.
• Small wave of snow races through parts of UT, WY, CO on 2/25 with 1-3 inches of accumulation. Then high pressure rebuilds through 3/1.
• Storm track shifts north into the PNW, B.C., and eventually ID, MT through 3/2.
• Then it gradually shifts south to include CA, UT, WY, and CO between 3/3-3/12 with lower pressures in control. This could mean a return to snow and cold for the West.

Wolf Creek

4-Day Grand Total: 51″ (4.1″ SWE)

Ratio: 12.4:1

Season Totals so far

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and what’s lined-up for the PNW/B.C. this weekend and early next week.

First 12 Days of March

3/1-3/3: Heaviest precipitation favors the Pacific Northwest, B.C., northern ID, and western MT.

3/3-3/12: Storm track shifts south to include CA, remainder of ID and MT, WY, UT, and CO.

Below, notice the forecast pressure anomalies across the West on 3/12. If this plays out then expect colder temps and snow.

Snow Forecast

2/25-2/28:

3/1-3/6:

Northeast, 2/25-3/6:

90% of this snow falls on 2/25.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• Storm #2 is exiting Colorado. Next stop is the Northeast ski areas Thursday night-Friday.
• Tiny wave of light snow races through MT, ID, WY, UT, CO through 2/25 then high pressure rebuilds.
• Storm track shifts into the PNW and B.C. 2/25-3/1. It grows to include northern ID and western MT.
• Then it gradually shifts south to include most of CA, UT, WY, and CO after 3/3.

Colorado Totals & SWE

3-Day Storm Cycle Snow Totals:

• Wolf Creek: 43″ (SWE 3.9″)
• Silverton Mountain: 44″ (SWE 3.1″)
• Purgatory: 45″
• Telluride: 30″
• Snowmass: 32″
• Crested Butte: 20″

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the dip in the storm track over the north Pacific headed for the PNW and B.C. this weekend. Orange/red colors = drier air aloft.

Early March

The storm track will gradually shift south from the PNW into ID, MT, WY, CA, UT, and CO. This occurs between 3/1 and 3/10. Below, notice the lower forecast pressure anomalies on 3/7/2022 across the West. The lowest pressures maximize around 3/10.

Snow Forecast

2/24-2/28:

3/1-3/5:

Northeast, 2/24-3/5:

Most of this accumulation occurs on 2/25.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• Storm #2 is currently sliding through UT and into CO and NM with heavy additional accumulation through 2/24. My Bullseye Collection includes Crested Butte, Aspen/Snowmass, Silverton Mountain, Purgatory, Telluride, and Wolf Creek.
• Then high pressure rebuilds 2/25-3/1. Storm track shifts north and favors Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and eventually ID, MT, and WY.
• Between 3/3-3/10 the storm track gradually shifts south and favors CA, ID, UT, MT, WY, and CO. Full details below.

Bullseye Collection in the last 48 hours:

Aspen Highlands: 25″

Crested Butte: 14″

Purgatory: 33″

Silverton Mountain: 30″

Telluride: 21″

Wolf Creek: 25″

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the 2-storm combo for the West and high pressure lurking over the Pacific. Orange/red colors = drier air aloft.

Looking Down The Road

High pressure rebuilds across the West 2/25-3/1. The storm track shifts north to favor the PNW, B.C., and eventually ID, MT and WY.

After 3/3 it gradually shifts south to favor CA and the Intermountain West. Lower pressures build and reach a minimum by 3/8-3/10. This might translate into a colder, snowier pattern from CA to UT to CO.

Snow Forecast

2/23-2/24:

Zoom of Southern Colorado, 2/23-2/24:

2/25-2/28:

3/1-3/4:

Northeast, 2/23-2/28:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• Colorado bullseye spots: 8-10″ in the last 24hrs reported at Aspen/Snowmass, Crested Butte, Telluride, Silverton, and Wolf Creek. I’m forecasting another 1-2+ feet by Thursday morning. Wolf Creek might be the biggest winner with almost 4 total feet.
• Arctic air continues filtering in-between storm systems.
• Taos: 1-2 feet total by Thursday afternoon. Lull in snowfall between storm #1 and storm #2 on Wednesday morning. The sun might even come out. 70% of the grand total comes from storm #2 between Wednesday afternoon-Thursday.
• Wasatch: Another wave of accumulating snow arrives Tuesday night through Wednesday, 4-6″ new.

Crested Butte, CO is one of my bullseye spots for big totals. Looking good so far.

Wolf Creek, CO is on their way to almost 4 feet by Thursday afternoon. Heavy snow continues:

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and two-storm combo for the West. A few large low pressure systems are cruising through the North Pacific and will nail the PNW and B.C. (maybe even parts of CA) between 2/26-3/4 as the storm track shifts.

Snow Forecast

2/22-2/24:

2/25-3/2:

Zoom of Southern Colorado, 2/22-2/24:

Forecast snow plume for Taos, NM:

Forecast snow plume for Alta, UT:

Northeast, 2/22-3/3:

Most of this accumulation occurs on 2/25 and 3/3.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• 12″/24hrs new reported at Jackson Hole and now temps plummet.
• I’m forecasting 6-10″ for the Wasatch through 2/24 and temps plummet.
• Biggest totals of 2-3 feet occur in Western and Southern Colorado by 2/24. This favors Aspen/Snowmass, Crested Butte, Telluride, Purgatory, Silverton Mountain, and Wolf Creek.
• Taos, NM is also in-line for about 2 feet of total accumulation by 2/24.
• Pattern turns drier for the Intermountain West after 2/24 through 3/2. Storm track shifts to the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia.

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and amplified jet stream. The big dip across the West supports the colder air and lower pressures.

Pattern after 2/24

High pressure rebuilds across the Intermountain West after 2/24 through March 3. The storm track shifts to the PNW and B.C.

Snow Forecast

2/21-2/24:

2/25-3/2:

Forecast snow plume for Aspen/Snowmass:

Northeast, 2/21-3/2:

90% of this accumulation occurs on 2/25.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• Two-storm combo and Arctic blast for parts of the West.
• Lull in the snowfall between storm #1 and storm #2.
• Arctic air plunges south.
• Biggest totals in Colorado over a 3.5-day period. Western Slope and Southern Mountains get 2-3 feet favoring Aspen/Snowmass, Crested Butte, Telluride, Silverton, Purgatory, and Wolf Creek. Less at all other resorts.
• About a foot total for the Wasatch and Tetons over a two day period.

I went backcountry skiing in Colorado on Saturday morning. I found crystal clear skies and a nearly full Snow Moon glowing bright.

My complete forecast video including two snow plumes, Northeast, and snow forecasts through March 1:

2/20-2/24: