Tomer’s Track

• Heavy snow next week across parts of the Intermountain West – especially Colorado with 1-3 feet.
• About a foot for the Wasatch and Tetons.
• This is a two-storm combo with an Arctic front.

Here’s my mountain weather forecast video:

2/19-2/24:

Forecast snow plume for Crested Butte, CO:

Tomer’s Take

• 2-3 day dry break across the Intermountain West (IW).
• Two storm combo hits the IW 2/20-2/23.
• An Arctic front accompanies this storm cycle. Air temps plummet early next week aiding in snow efficiency.
• 1-3 feet possible across parts of CO.
• A foot or more across the Wasatch and Tetons.
• What follows this storm cycle through March 1? Data remains split and confidence is low.

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and storm systems lurking for next week. They will drag and Arctic front down as well.

Storm Cycle

Below, notice the amplification of the jet stream valid 2/21-22/2022. The jet reaches into the Arctic and buckles south. Both storm systems will ride this storm track.

Snow Forecast

2/18-2/24:

2/25-2/27:

Forecast snow plume for Crested Butte, CO:

Northeast, 2/18-2/27:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• It now looks like a two-storm combo for next week, 2/20-2/24 across the West.
• They are colder, windier, and stronger storm systems versus the one that just moved through the Intermountain West.
• Big totals possible in West/SW CO and Northern NM.
• What happens after 2/24? Data remains split and confidence is low. High pressure might rebuild.

Water vapor satellite shows the storm track and next low pressure lined-over the Pacific. Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Next Week

A second storm system appears to piggy-back on the initial low pressure. This creates a larger window of snow potential for some areas (especially West/SW CO and Northern NM) between 2/20-2/24.

Below, notice the significant forecast pressure anomalies on 2/22 across the West. This generates a colder, windier storm system(s).

Beyond 2/24

Data remains split and confidence is low.

One possible outcome involves high pressure rebuilding across the West through March 1.

Snow Forecast

2/17-2/26:

I added Purgatory and Breckenridge to the map.

Forecast snow plume for Wolf Creek, CO:

Northeast, 2/17-2/26:

At least 50% of this accumulation occurs with a potential storm system on 2/25-2/26.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• Storm #1 is sliding through MT, WY, ID, UT, CO, NM on 2/16 ending early 2/17.
• A dry 2-3 day break follows this storm system.
• Storm #2 arrives 2/20-2/23 (possibly lingering into early 2/24).
• Will it be followed by high pressure or another storm system into March1? Data is split and confidence is low.

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and both storm systems separated by high pressure.

Storm #2

Storm #2 appears stronger and colder than storm #1. It’s the beneficiary of storm #1 dislodging a long-standing high pressure dome.

Snow forecasts are all over the board and confidence remains low where the bullseye(s) will end up. But, notice the significant forecast pressure anomalies valid 2/21-2/22.

Beyond Storm #2

What happens 2/24-3/1? Data is split and confidence is low. Here’s one possibility with high pressure rebuilding.

Snow Forecast

2/16-2/19:

2/20-2/25:

Steamboat snow plume forecast:

Northeast, 2/16-2/25:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• Two storm systems will be separated by a 2-3 day dry break.
• First storm system: 2/15-2/17
• Second storm system: 2/20-2/23
• Second storm system appears stronger, colder.
• End of February: High pressure might rebuild across the West.

Water vapor satellite shows the storm track and high pressure dislodged but the first western storm system. 2nd storm system waiting in the wings over the Pacific. Orange/red = drier air aloft.

2nd Storm System

Below, notice the forecast pressure drop across the West. This occurs 2/20-2/23.

End of February

Data suggest high pressure might rebuild after the 2nd storm system through the end of February. Below, notice the higher forecast pressure anomalies. March might come in like a lamb.

Snow Forecast

2/15-2/19:

I’ve shaved (down) the Wasatch numbers for three days straight.

2/20-2/24:

Snow plume forecast for Cameron Pass, CO:

Northeast, 2/15-2/24:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• Finally, after weeks of high pressure and only minor, fast-moving cold fronts an actual storm system is lined-up.
• It hits ID on 2/14, 2/15 WY/MT/UT, and 2/16 CO, NM.
• This storm system is not a blockbuster, but it will pave the way for another storm system on 2/21-2/22.
• Unfortunately, this storm system only brushes CA with light accumulation.

I did some backcountry skiing on Saturday in Colorado. Temps started below zero there was a couple inches of fresh snow. That’s been the pattern for the last 5 weeks with only fast-moving, minor cold fronts.

Here’s my full video forecast:

I include four snow forecasts in the video. Here’s one for the West from 2/13-2/20 taking into account this week’s storm system.

Tomer’s Take

• A fast-moving, minor cold front races south through MT, WY, and CO through 2/11.
• High pressure anchored over CA remains formidable.
• Mostly dry weekend for the Pacific Northwest. Next storm arrives Monday.
• A larger storm system pierces the Western high pressure ridge 2/14-2/16 with snow for WA, OR, CA, ID, UT, MT, WY, CO, NM. This is not a blockbuster snowstorm for most places.
• This storm system loses some of it’s strength while breaking down the high. It could be a “one and done” storm system with high pressure rebuilding afterwards.

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and large Western high pressure.

Requests

I’ve had a few forecast requests.

• Red Mountain BC: 1-4″ between 2/14-2/16.
• Powder Mountain, UT: 1-3″ between 2/15-2/16.
• Big Sky, MT: 6-12″ between 2/14-2/16.
• Revelstoke BC: 2-6″ between 2/14-2/16. Possible active pattern 2/20-2/24.
• Dallas Peak, CO: 3-6″ on 2/16. Gusts to 40mph on 2/15-2/16.

One and Done

After the 2/14-2/16 storm system, high pressure rebuilds across the West. Below, notice the higher pressure anomalies across the West on 2/20.

Snow Forecast

2/10-2/13:

2/14-2/19:

Northeast, 2/10-2/19:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video: