Tomer’s Take: Snow tapers-off today in the Tetons and Wasatch while Colorado picks up an additional 4-8 inches. What’s next? Storm #2 is major and arrives 3/29-3/4 with feet of accumulation across the West.

My forecast video update:

Timeline

Storm #1 Tapering-off Tetons/Wasatch, 2-3″ additional.

Colorado: 4-8″ Additional Today.

Wasatch Next Snow 3/2-3/4 (1-2FT+).

Tetons Next Snow 3/1-3/3 (2FT).

Storm #2 Is Major 2/29-3/4.

Sierra 4-8 Feet Late 2/29-3/3.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the current Robust Quick Strike storm system over Colorado/WY/UT.

Storm #2 is waiting in the Gulf of Alaska.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Northeast:

VT/NH/ME rain 2/28 then rain/snow late 2/28 – early 2/29.

Snow chance late 3/6-3/7.

Tomer’s Take: A windy, robust quick strike storm system hits UT/WY/CO afternoon 2/26 through 2/27 with 9-18 inches. I trimmed some totals down another 20%. Storm #2 arrives 2/29-3/4 with heavy snow accumulation across most of the West. This is a bigger storm system.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the main storm system dropping south with the Northern Jet Branch into ID/MT/OR/WA. Next stop UT/WY/CO.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

White/Blue = moisture aloft.

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Storm #1:

Trimmed Colorado’s numbers down 20%.

Ridgetop wind gusts 50-70mph likely UT/WY/CO.

Northeast:

VT/NH/ME rain 2/28 changing light snow late 2/28 into early 2/29. Another light snow chance 3/6.

Tomer’s Take: Merging jet streams deliver a major storm system 2/26-2/27 to ID/WY/UT/CO and 50-70mph wind gusts. I trimmed a few snow totals down 20%. I’m calling this storm system the ‘Robust Quick Strike’. Storm #2 is major 2/29-3/5 with heavy snow accumulation. This storm system appears bigger than storm #1.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Storm #2 ->

Bulk of snow:

UT: 3/2-3/3.

WY: PM 2/29-3/3.

CO: 3/3-3/4.

Northeast:

Rain on 2/28 changing to light snow accumulation late 2/28 into early 2/29.

Tomer’s Take: Merging jet streams deliver a “Robust Quick Strike” of heavy snow accumulation (& strong wind 50-70mph) to ID/WY/UT/CO 2/26-2/27. This storm system has trended faster/weaker. Storm #2 is bigger and hits PNW/CA/ID/WY/UT/MT/CO with feet of accumulation 2/29-3/4.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Forecast Timeline

Two Storm Systems Through 3/4.

Storm #1 “Robust Quick Strike”.

Wasatch: 1-2FT PM 2/26 – AM 2/27.

Tetons: 1-2FT 2/26-2/27.

Colorado: 10-20 inches PM 2/26 – 2/27.

Idaho: 4-15 inches PM 2/25-2/26.

Storm #2 Is Major 2/29-3/4, Feet of Accumulation.

Northeast gets rain or rain/snow 2/28.

Forecast Jet Stream

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Tomer’s Take: The 2/26-2/27 storm system is trending weaker/faster but it’s still robust with heavy snow accumulation and strong wind in ID/WY/UT/CO. A second major storm system hits many of the same areas 3/2-3/4 with heavy snow accumulation.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Forecast Timeline

Storm #1 ->

Wasatch: 1-2FT 2/26 – AM 2/27.

Tetons: 1-2FT 2/26-2/27.

Colorado: 10-20 inches 2/26 – AM 2/27.

Idaho: 4-12 inches 2/26.

Storm #2 ->

Wasatch: 2FT 3/2-3/4.

Tetons: 1-2FT 3/1-3/3.

Colorado: 8-16 inches 3/3-3/4.

Idaho: 8-16 inches PM 2/29-3/1.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows both jet branches roaring towards possible merger 2/26-2/27.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Tomer’s Take: Now it’s a waiting game. The northern jet and southern jet merge to deliver a major storm system 2/26-2/28 and a second storm system 2/29-3/2. The brief WNW Flow is a bonus.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Timeline

*Updated 5pm 2/22.

Two Storm Systems Through 3/2:

Wasatch 15-30″ 2/26-2/27.

Tetons 1-2FT 2/26-2/28.

Colorado 1-2FT 2/26-2/28.

Strong Wind 2/26-2/27.

PNW/BC Major Snow Both Storms.

Northeast Light Snow Late 2/22-2/23, 2/28.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows two storm systems. They both play a role in the pattern shift on/after 2/25. The two storm systems could merge with the northern and southern jet branches.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand totals by late 3/2.

Tomer’s Take: A trough of low pressure slides across UT/CO 2/21-2/22 with snow accumulation. Then the pattern shifts 2/25-3/1 with the northern jet branch buckling south into the Lower 48, delivering energy, WNW Flow, and merging at times with the southern jet branch. Big totals likely.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Forecast Timeline

*Updated 4:30pm 2/21.
Wasatch Snow Ends Tonight, Heavy 2/26-2/27.

Tetons Heavy 2/26-2/28.

Colorado Light/Mod Snow PM 2/21 – AM 2/22, Heavy 2/26-2/28.

Strong Wind 2/26-2/27.

Northern Branch Merger 2/26-2/27.

PNW/BC/Northern Tier 2/29-3/1.

Northeast Light/Moderate Snow 2/23, 2/28-2/29.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a storm system crossing UT/CO. A large trough in the North Pacific becomes part of the pattern shift 2/25-3/1 with the northern branch.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand totals by late 3/1.

Tomer’s Take: The main trough of low pressure hitting CA breaks loose tonight and slides through UT/CO 2/21-2/22. The pattern shifts on/after 2/25 when the Northern Jet Branch buckles south and merges with the Subtropical Jet. Big totals likely.

Timing

*4:30PM 2/20 Update.

CA 3-6″ Tonight – AM 2/21.

Wasatch 8-16″ Next 24 Hours.

Tetons 1-2″ 2/22.

Colorado 1-4″ Next 48 Hours.

Northern Branch Merger 2/25-2/29, WNW Flow.

Northeast Light/Moderate Snow 2/23, 2/27-2/28.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the large trough of low pressure hitting CA then breaking loose and moving through UT/CO 2/21-2/22.

The second area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska sends a small piece of energy south into CA while the main trough slides into AK/Canada then south into the United States with a buckling Northern Branch.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand totals by late 2/29.

Tomer’s Take: Heavy snow accumulation hits UT PM 2/19-2/21. Light to moderate snow accumulation for the Tetons PM 2/19-2/20. Colorado gets light snow accumulation 2/20 and moderate snow 2/22. California continues to receive heavy snow accumulation now through 2/20. Then the pattern shifts on/after 2/25 with the Northern Jet Branch buckling, merging with the Southern Branch, a preferred NW Flow, and additional energy delivery. Big widespread totals likely. If this spills into early March then it’ll be a solid start.

My mountain weather update video:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a large trough of low pressure hitting CA. It’s sending waves of snow into the interior Rockies. The entire storm system breaks loose 2/20-2/22 through UT/WY/ID/CO.

The area of low pressure in the North Pacific will become part of the 2/25-2/28 Northern Branch setup.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand Totals by late 2/28.

Tomer’s Take: Snow in the Wasatch and Colorado ends tonight with another 1-3 inches in the Tetons. The next storm system arrives 2/19-2/22 in UT/CO/ID/WY with moderate to heavy snow accumulation. Big totals possible 2/25-2/28 with northern jet involvement and energy.

My afternoon forecast video update:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a large trough of low pressure sending waves of energy into the Intermountain West. The entire trough moves into CA 2/19-2/20 with heavy snow accumulation across the Sierra. Then it hits UT/ID/WY/CO 2/20-2/22.

Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Forecast Jet Stream

Forecast Radar & Satellite

Forecast Totals

Grand totals by late 2/27.

Northeast:

VT/NH/ME light snow accumulation PM 2/22-2/23. Another storm system around 2/27.

Fading El Nino

BTW, EL Nino is fading quickly. We’re officially under a “La Nina Watch”. Neutral conditions by May and La Nina by Summer.

This will slowly shift the pattern for the Western United States. I think we’ll still have a solid March across UT/ID/WY/CO.

Colder values represent La Nina.